Ranking rookie wide receiver seasons since 1985: Could Justin Jefferson be No. 1?
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Justin Jefferson of LSU was the fifth wideout taken in an NFL draft that went very deep at wide receiver in 2020. The Minnesota Vikings selected him with the 22nd overall pick that they had acquired in a trade for veteran WR Stefon Diggs, and by Week 3, Jefferson was put into the starting lineup as Diggs' replacement.
All Jefferson did that day was catch seven passes for 175 yards and a 71-yard touchdown. Since then, Jefferson hasn't just been one of the best rookie wide receivers in the league; he has been one of the best wideouts, period. Jefferson has four different 100-yard receiving days and is currently in the top 10 in the NFL with 918 receiving yards and 17.7 yards per reception.
Jefferson is blowing away his average projection, according to Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score. Although he was the fifth wide receiver taken, he was third in our projections of average expected yards per season. But he passed his 599-yard projection by Week 9. Here's a look at where the other rookies from this class stand heading into Week 13:
Where will Jefferson's season come out among the best rookie wide receiver seasons in NFL history? To answer this question, we turned to Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric. This looks at success on every play based on situation and opponent then compares it to the level of an average NFL backup wide receiver. (It's explained more here.) Importantly, it's normalized to every season's average offensive level, making it easier to compare this year's explosive offensive numbers to more defense-oriented seasons in the past. And despite this adjustment, you'll see below that Jefferson's season is extremely impressive.
We're ranking the top 10 rookie wide receiver seasons since 1985, which is as far back as we have play-by-play data to compute DYAR. The totals below include both receiving and rushing value, in the regular season only. 10. Ernest Givins, 1986 Oilers: 292 DYAR
61 catches for 1,062 yards, 3 TDs, 50% catch rate
Let's start by going back over 30 years to the Houston Oilers, before they even installed the run 'n' shoot offense. The Oilers drafted Givins out of Louisville in the second round and lined him up opposite veteran Drew Hill, with both receivers putting up 1,000-yard seasons in 1986. Givins wouldn't make our list if we were only counting receiving value, but he also had nine carries for an astonishing 148 yards. Six of his carries gained at least 15 yards, including a 43-yard touchdown.
Givins never crossed the 1,000-yard barrier again, but he had four other seasons with at least 900 receiving yards, and he still ranks as the all-time leading receiver for the Titans/Oilers franchise.
Sometimes, your top wide receiver draft picks take some time to develop. Sometimes they never develop at all. But A.J. Green was a superstar from the moment the Bengals took him fourth overall in the 2011 draft. He finished ninth in receiving DYAR among all wideouts as a rookie, and he made his first of seven straight Pro Bowl appearances. Green also added 152 yards in defensive pass interference flags to his 1,057 receiving yards.
What's interesting is that Green was a bit more of a deep threat in his first year, with 16.3 yards per reception. In subsequent years, Green had more targets and catches but never topped 15.1 yards per reception again.
Smith-Schuster, chosen out of Southern California near the end of the second round, wasn't even a starter until halfway through his rookie season. He took advantage of constant double-teams on Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving DVOA (value per play) and finish sixth in DYAR. Over half of his value came after his first start in Week 8. (OK, technically, he started in Week 1, but he didn't get any targets and played less than half the snaps.)
7. Lee Evans, 2004 Bills: 330 DYAR
48 catches for 843 yards, 9 TDs, 64% catch rate
Buffalo selected Evans 13th overall out of Wisconsin and immediately lined him up as the starter opposite veteran Eric Moulds. Evans' raw numbers might not look as impressive as those of some of the other seasons on this list, but over half the throws to him ended up as first downs or touchdowns, and he had five different catches for over 50 yards. Evans eventually peaked with 1,292 yards in 2006, but he had a somewhat shorter career, with seven years as a Buffalo starter followed by a part-time year in Baltimore.
Allen was selected in the third round of the 2013 draft, at 76th overall, making him the lowest draft pick on our top-10 list. He fell in the draft due to a posterior cruciate ligament strain suffered in his last season at California. Allen didn't play in the first week of his rookie season, but by Week 3, injuries to teammates had made him a starter. For the rest of the season, he was a first-down machine, with first downs or touchdowns on a league-leading 52% of targets. His best game of the campaign isn't even included in his regular-season total: 142 yards and two touchdowns against Denver in a divisional-round playoff loss.
Allen struggled with injuries for a couple of seasons, but he rebounded with three straight Pro Bowl selections and over 3,700 receiving yards from 2017 to 2019.
Selected 15th overall and the first of three LSU wideouts on our list, Clayton is one of the great mysteries of recent NFL history. How could a wide receiver be so productive as a rookie and then watch his career completely disintegrate without any major injuries? Clayton had more receiving yards as a rookie than he did in his next three years with the Buccaneers, combined. He had more touchdowns as a rookie than he did in the rest of his career, combined.
Clayton's career is the nightmare scenario for any wide receiver who has a great rookie season. (Well, the Bucs gave him a $24 million extension with $10 million guaranteed in 2008 despite his struggles the previous three seasons, so maybe it wasn't such a nightmare for Clayton himself.)
The Giants selected Beckham with the 12th overall pick in a 2014 draft that was very deep at wide receiver. New York had to wait a few weeks to see him in action, since a hamstring injury kept him out the first four games of the season. If he had played a full 16-game season, Beckham would probably top this list. He led the NFL with 109 receiving yards per game in 2014. That included at least 90 yards in each of the first nine games of the year, as well as at least 130 yards in each of the final four games. And of course, it included the classic one-handed, backward-diving catch against Dallas.
Beckham was equally stellar in 2015 and 2016, but injuries have hobbled him over the past four years of his career.
3. Randy Moss, 1998 Vikings: 430 DYAR
69 catches for 1,313 yards, 17 TDs, 56% catch rate
Moss famously dropped to the 21st spot in the 1998 draft due to character and legal concerns, then went about proving everyone wrong from the moment he first took the field in the NFL. In his debut, he caught four out of five targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Later in his rookie season, Moss had a game with 190 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota's archrivals in Green Bay then another two outings with three touchdowns apiece, including on Thanksgiving Day against Dallas.
Moss, of course, went on to a Hall of Fame career after his fantastic rookie season.
2. Michael Thomas, 2016 Saints: 431 DYAR
92 catches for 1,137 yards, 9 TDs, 76% catch rate
There's never been a wide receiver who combined volume with a high catch rate quite like Thomas. The Saints were able to wait until pick No. 47 in the second round to take him out of Ohio State, but he was a starter by his second game in the NFL. Thomas is one of only four rookies to ever put up a catch rate over 75% on at least 50 targets -- and he had 40 targets more than the other three. Thomas' career has continued to be outstanding, of course; he has finished in our DYAR top five in all four of his seasons (not including 2020), and he set an NFL record for receptions in a season last year.
Thomas moves ahead of Moss because our metrics count both complete and incomplete passes. But it's worth noting that Moss' rookie season would come out with more DYAR than Thomas if not for opponent adjustments.
1. Justin Jefferson, 2020 Vikings: on pace for 459 DYAR
Prorated to 16 games: 76 catches for 1,335 yards, 9 TDs, 72% catch rate
Jefferson has 316 DYAR so far, so if the season ended today, he would still end up in the all-time rookie wide receiver top 10. No rookie has ever led the league in receiving DYAR, but Jefferson was on top for much of the season. He was narrowly passed in Week 12 by the now-suspended Will Fuller V as well as by Tyreek Hill.
Jefferson is impressive for having such a high catch rate while also running deeper routes, more similar to Moss than to Thomas. In fact, Jefferson leads the league with 19 catches on passes of 16 or more yards through the air. Jefferson also has moved the sticks on half of his targets on third and fourth down, not including a couple of DPI flags on third-down passes to the end zone that also gained a new set of downs for the Vikings. Honorable mention: The next five
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Ranking rookie wide receiver seasons since 1985 🏈
10. Ernest Givins, 1986 Oilers: 292 DYAR
9. A.J. Green, 2011 Bengals: 296 DYAR
7. Lee Evans, 2004 Bills: 330 DYAR
6. Keenan Allen, 2013 Chargers: 343 DYAR
5. Michael Clayton, 2004 Buccaneers: 405 DYAR
4. Odell Beckham Jr., 2014 Giants: 415 DYAR
3. Randy Moss, 1998 Vikings: 430 DYAR
2. Michael Thomas, 2016 Saints: 431 DYAR
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