Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

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Maybe the UFC is playing it safe on a card immediately following Thanksgiving by booking heavyweights in the main event. Hopefully, there's very little chance of weight issues coming into play.


But what's compelling for fans this Saturday is a matchup between two of the top five ranked big men that show sharp stylistic contrasts, with the winner having a strong case for title contention in a division suddenly full of fresh contenders. Assuming that current top-ranked Francis Ngannou gets a title rematch against champion Stipe Miocic relatively soon, the winner here could call their shot at "next" and wait for things to play out.


Prelims start at 7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN2/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight main event: No. 2 Curtis Blaydes (-350) vs. No. 4 Derrick Lewis (+290)


Tale Of The Tape

DERRICK LEWIS CURTIS BLAYDES
Last fight weight class Heavyweight Heavyweight
Age 35 29
Height 75 76
Reach 79 80
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Analyzed minutes 194 127
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 6:2 1:2
Distance knockdown rate 3.8% 1.8%
Head jab accuracy 25% 30%
Head power accuracy 28% 26%
Total stand-up strike ratio 1.1 1.1
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 64% 67%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 97% 198%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.19 1.60
Takedown accuracy 27% 56%
Advances per takedown/top control 1.9 0.5
Opponent takedown attempts 74 6
Takedown defense 53% 33%
Share of total ground time in control 30% 99%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.00 0.00
Despite both men assembling win streaks to earn spots in the top rankings, the trajectory of these two tell a different story. Lewis has gotten past fighters towards the bottom of the rankings in somewhat awkward matchups. Blaydes, on the other hand, has cruised through the division and has wins over half of the current top 10, with his only UFC losses coming against the aforementioned consensus top contender, Ngannou. The strength of competition here strongly favors Blaydes.


Their standup striking stats look similar in terms of accuracy and defense, but Blaydes operates at an average rate of strike attempts that is twice that of Lewis'. Lewis has an ability to slow the pace of fights, backing off to recover his wind and waiting on opponents to engage. And his opponents are no doubt hesitant to get into a slobber knocker with the heavy-handed Lewis, which allows him time to rest between exchanges. That has turned some of his fights into slow-paced staring contests. But that's less about what Lewis has to offer and more about opponents lacking a dual threat to deal with Lewis.


Enter Blaydes, who has competent enough standup and has dominated opponents on the mat -- exactly where Lewis is most vulnerable. In the UFC, Blaydes has also faced elite power strikers like Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem, Junior Dos Santos and Alexander Volkov, nullifying the knockout threat they posed and dictating the placement of the fight. To date, Blaydes has spent 47% of all Octagon time on the ground controlling opponents. And with Lewis' below average take-down defense and lack of defensive wrestling or submissions, we should expect to see the majority of rounds on the mat in this matchup.


Assuming Blaydes is on point and plays to his strengths, he should employ a familiar strategy against Lewis. Blaydes will need to close the distance with caution, avoid a big counter and take the fight down early and often. Doing so may not finish the fight out of the gates, but it will quickly drain Lewis' gas tank, setting him up for a finish later in the fight.




Lewis always has a puncher's chance, and that will keep his line closer than with other runaway favorites. But this fight is clearly Blaydes' to control, win and eventually finish. Lewis doesn't have the stamina or defense to avoid a finish for five rounds on the ground if he misses his early chance for a KO.


E+ recommends: Money line play on Blaydes; Blaydes inside the distance; fight does not go to decision.
Best bets elsewhere on the card

Deep on the prelims, Gina Mazany (-135) is going to make her debut at flyweight after a tough run against ranked opponents at bantamweight. Facing Rachael Ostovich (+115), Mazany will be the significantly larger fighter and will also own a ground control advantage. Now training in a new camp -- and fighting against smaller opponents -- Mazany is worth paying a little juice.



E+ recommends: Money line lean on Mazany.