World Series 2020: Who will be Fall Classic MVP? The leader at every moment so far ⚾
World Series 2020: Who will be Fall Classic MVP? The leader at every moment so far
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Who is going to win MVP honors in the World Series?
We don't know! But after five games of a back-and-forth Fall Classic, we can start to narrow down the candidates. Hopefully, it will help set the stage for a memorable finish for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays.
On his website last week, baseball writer Bill James was asked by one of his readers whether he had attempted to create a postseason version of his win shares metric. He hasn't, but in explaining that, James hit upon the chief difference between selecting the MVP of a season as opposed to a playoff series, or even a single game. To paraphrase James: When you are talking about a series, it's not so much what you do as when you do it.
You can hit .300 with three homers and six RBIs during a six-game World Series without having much impact on how the matchup is decided. But if you have one plate appearance and you hit a game-winning, two-run single to turn a loss into a win, and your name is Brett Phillips, you might have had as much impact on the ultimate decision as anyone.
There is, of course, a stat for that: win probability added, or WPA for short. It's a pretty mainstream metric by this point, but if you're unfamiliar with WPA, it has nothing to do with Franklin Delano Roosevelt. At any given point in the game, a team has X percent chance to win. Every at-bat changes that percentage and each of those changes are doled out to hitters and pitchers like debits and credits. Add it all up, and you have WPA.
Which brings us to Phillips, who won Game 4 with a dramatic hit that resulted in the winning run, though it wasn't exactly a two-run single because an error aided the scoring of the second run. The bottom line was that before Phillips' at-bat, the Rays had a 17.3% chance to win. After his heroics, it was 100%. The difference (82.7% or 0.83 expressed as a decimal) is credited to Phillips. Through five games, it was Phillips' only at-bat of the series, yet that one play is enough to make him by far the series WPA leader.
In each of the past three World Series, the winner of the Willie Mays MVP trophy has also been the series WPA leader. Phillips is not going to win the trophy based on his one hit, and, don't worry, we're not going to make the case that he should. Then again -- the series is not over. Phillips hasn't done much, but he did it at just the right time, as Yogi Berra might have said.
If you filter out players who haven't had at least four WPA opportunities, we can trace the progression of the series leader in this category, and what we'll find is a good pool of MVP candidates. Call this the Phillips Filter. We'll mix in some more traditional numbers as well and touch on narrative factors that might influence those filling out the ballots.
All WPA data was taken from the play logs at FanGraphs.com.
Game 1
Clayton Kershaw put up six strong innings, holding the Rays to one run. The Dodgers led 8-1 when he departed, a score that doesn't generate many leveraged opportunities for hitters to pile up WPA like Phillips did. Kershaw had compiled 0.18 WPA by the time he exited. He was the clubhouse leader after the first game.
The leader among hitters in that first game was Cody Bellinger, whose two-run homer got the Dodgers on the board. He finished that first game with a 0.15 WPA. Kevin Kiermaier was at 0.12 to lead the Rays. It was only one game, so no reason to dig too deep. The Dodgers cruised to an 8-3 win.
MVP after Game 1: It's Kershaw, but it will be three more games before we see him again, so there are lots of chances for others to pass him.
Game 2
The Rays evened the series, jumping to a 5-2 lead and holding on. In true Tampa Bay fashion, there was no glaring hero but a number of solid WPA contributors. The leaders were Joey Wendle and Brandon Lowe (both at 0.17), though neither had good enough Game 1s to elevate them to MVP front-runner status.
It was a fairly dismal overall performance for the Dodgers, whose WPA leader for the game was middle reliever Dylan Floro. However, Corey Seager led the offense with a homer and a positive WPA contribution, and at this point, it's probably time to take note of the Dodgers shortstop.
With individual performances either not moving the WPA needle, or just kind of evening out what happened in the first game, our MVP outlook remains unchanged.
MVP after Game 2: Still Kershaw with his 0.18 WPA.
Game 3
The Dodgers took this one 6-2 to grab the series advantage and did so behind several notable performances. Justin Turner (0.12 WPA) hit a big homer off Charlie Morton to get things started. Max Muncy's two-run single was the biggest win probability swing of the contest, and he reached base three times while logging a 0.17 WPA.
The star of the game, though, was Walker Buehler, as he has been so frequently during his playoff career. Buehler went six strong innings with 10 strikeouts and finished with 0.20 WPA to pass Kershaw's Game 1 total. Buehler and Muncy were trading blows atop the series WPA leaderboard during the game, but Buehler finished on top by a hair.
MVP after Game 3: Buehler (0.20) leads, but Muncy (0.19) and Kershaw (0.18) are right there. If the series ended here, we'd be wading through other stats and narrative factors.
Game 4
This was the epic, seesaw battle in which the lead changed repeatedly. The game featured 33 high-leverage plate appearances and Phillips' game winner, giving Tampa Bay an 8-7 series-tying win. As we explained, we're filtering out Phillips' series-leading WPA because of his limited playing time, but we're not going to forget it.
What is instructive is to look at how the series WPA lead changed during that game, often because of a dramatic moment. Buehler maintained his edge while watching from the dugout until Seager homered in the third, which increased his series WPA figure to 0.21.
Muncy singled in Seager in the fifth, pushing his WPA to 0.29 and into the lead. That lasted until the bottom of the sixth, when, at last, a Tampa Bay player moved to the top. That came on Lowe's dramatic three-run homer -- a 0.40 WPA play by itself. He'd been at break-even before that, so he moved to the top with that 0.40 figure.
In the top of the eighth, Seager singled in Chris Taylor, giving the Dodgers a 7-6 lead that stood until Phillips' heroics in the ninth. That pushed Seager's WPA total for the series to 0.57. He has been in the series lead ever since. Except, that is, for Phillips.
MVP after Game 4: Seager (0.57) topped the list.
Game 5
That brings us to Sunday's game. Kershaw was back in action, and while he pitched in and out of trouble, he held the Rays to just two runs over 5⅔ innings. He added another 0.15 WPA to his ledger, moving to 0.33 for the Series. But Seager added to his total, Muncy had another big game and, well, let's just look at the series top 10 for WPA:
Honorable mention: Brett Phillips, 0.83 in one plate appearance.
Seager's consistency throughout the postseason has almost overshadowed his spectacular play. He just hasn't had that one shining moment. Given that strong sentimental pull for voters toward Kershaw -- who has won both of his starts and has 2.31 ERA -- Seager might need a game-winning hit or a two-homer breakout or something along those lines.
But consider what Seager has done this series beyond, and the probability increases. His 1.432 OPS leads all hitters, and it's built off a .471/.609/.824 slash line. He has reached base 14 times to lead all hitters. He has been a key part of every Dodgers rally, hence the runaway lead on the WPA board.
This series performance caps a remarkable October for Seager, one overshadowed in mentions during the World Series because of the spectacular run by Rays rookie Randy Arozarena. And while Arozarena has been unbelievable, he actually hasn't hit that well in big spots against the Dodgers, which is why his name is missing on the WPA leaderboard above.
MVP after Game 5: Seager (0.63 WPA). That's the empirical conclusion. However, subjectively, Seager's numbers probably aren't going to swing voters away from Kershaw. Maybe that's the way it ought to be.
For the Rays, there are a lot of ways this could go if they should pull off an upset. Morton would likely get a Game 7 start against Buehler, and it's possible that a gem from one of them could result in a trophy. Arozarena could match his hulking traditional stats with a couple of game-turning hits and cap his magical playoff run. And if Kershaw is the sentimental pick for the Dodgers, Kiermaier might be that player for the Rays. Like Kershaw, he has come up big in the Fall Classic.
However, if the Dodgers can finish off Tampa Bay and finally end their long title drought, it's going to be an interesting vote. Kershaw has been terrific, but if things go according to plan, he's probably done for the series. Seager has all the numbers, just not the headlines. And Buehler, the Dodgers' new Mr. October, has that possible Game 7 opportunity looming.
Who is going to be the World Series MVP? The answer remains unsettled. But with one or two games left in the 2020 season, the Fall Classic isn't lacking for quality MVP candidates.
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World Series 2020: Who will be Fall Classic MVP? The leader at every moment so far ⚾
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