1. #1
    stevenash
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    If good pitching wins (and it usually does)....

    If good pitching wins (and it usually does) and I totally believe that, than it appears that we are heading for a Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 2020 World Series match up.

    And pitching is the key factor in the betting lines if you break it all down.
    Why do you think both the Dodgers and Rays are so heavily favored.

    Look at the final four teams.

    In order, just looking at the 2020 abbreviated season. the two best pitching staffs are the Rays and Dodgers.
    All the metrics and analytics back this up,
    Even if you throw out all the sabre numbers and rely on just on what you see the fact of the matter remains the same, that being the Rays and Dodgers are clearly the two best pitching teams standing.

    And the Rays have the superior relief pitching of those four teams.

    Anything is possible in baseball playoff history but I see Houston of having next to no chance in a first team to win four games championship series.

    Astro pitching is not very good, and if you compare the two staffs side by side there's not one area where Houston has an edge.

    Despite having the games best bullpen the Astros can't counter Glasnow and Snell either.

    To further complicate matters the Rays line up is stacked with left handed hitting and the Astros only have two left handed pitchers on the roster that can offset those Rays bats (one starter, one reliever) and both are not good, mediocre but not good.

    Yes Houston has hitting that just woke up and in the nick of time I might add but the Rays pitching is just so much better than Oakland pitching (who Houston just knocked off)

    Going into the season I thought the Rays pitching was overrated (and it was to some degree) and the bats were under rated (and they were)

    Now I do believe Atlanta whose pitching staff can not compare (on paper) to the Dodgers pitching, however they have two starters that have impressed (Fried and Ian Anderson) and have gone pretty much unnoticed to the casual fan. The problem with the Braves will have in their series with LA is they have to depend on a shaky third starter (Kyle Wright) and the LA rotation is three deep as Atlanta's is only two deep.

    Nothing really wrong with the Brave bullpen, but it's not quite top to bottom what LA has out there.

    I thing Atlanta can surprise LA with a 2 to 1 plus underdog upset as the Braves can hit, but that hitting won't mean anything if they can't get two good outings, and I mean very good outings from Anderson and Fried.

    I want to go more in depth here but Mr. Clock on the wall says I need to get off the computer for a bit and do some business stuff.

    OK, I looked at these two series from every angle, I can not and will not lay those ridiculous prices on the Dodgers and Rays to win their series, I can't see Houston pulling off any upsets so I can't go the the way in betting that series, Atlanta has a minor chance of beating LA (look at recent LA failures in the post season while you're at it) but for me to bet Atlanta I need a little better odds that +220 (I would like to see +300)

    I can't even get even money on a two team parlay using the Rays and Dodgers to advance.
    No value there either.

    So I am not betting either series even though I think I know what the outcomes will be.

    I am going to cherry pick a few games if and when I see value though.

    I'll leave for now with one final thought.

    Houston I think can win game 1 later as I can see McCullers matching Charlie Morton pitch for pitch, but the books are not giving me value there on the dog either, I want at least +150 in that game for me to bet Houston and I'm not seeing anything close to that.

    More later

  2. #2
    Bostongambler
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    Nice write up Steve.

  3. #3
    pologq
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    thanks for the details steve.

  4. #4
    RudyRuetigger
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    steveo

    thanks for the writeup AND details

  5. #5
    lakerboy
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    Good write-up Steve.

    I don't think the dodgers pitching is that great but we will see.

    Braves faced 5 very good pitchers in the games they played and won all 5.

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    steveo

    thanks for the writeup AND details
    Glad to help.

    What can I say I'm a geek from way back, I enjoy writing geeky analytic stuff.
    From where I sit that would make me a geek, but it's who I am, it's what I do.

    I thought if Houston was gong to get a game it would this one (game 1)
    I thought (and still think) it would be Tampa in six.
    It will be over in five games if TB holds on to this lead.

    Houston would need to beat Glasnow and Snell twice to have any shot of advancing.
    That is not going to happen.

    Watch the series line movement on the overnight if TB holds on and wins.

    You could very well see Tampa series price -800

  7. #7
    RudyRuetigger
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    win or lose......this is the best guy here for baseball



  8. #8
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Good write-up Steve.

    I don't think the dodgers pitching is that great but we will see.

    Braves faced 5 very good pitchers in the games they played and won all 5.

    I am giving the Braves a fighters punchers chance in that series.
    Correct LA's pitching is better but way overrated.

    Like I said though their bullpen is solid and that rotation is three deep.
    If I can get a little better price I may try the Braves tonight, but I do need a better price than +135.

    Everybody else thanks for the kind words.

  9. #9
    Orbison
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Houston I think can win game 1 later as I can see McCullers matching Charlie Morton pitch for pitch, but the books are not giving me value there on the dog either, I want at least +150 in that game for me to bet Houston and I'm not seeing anything close to that.

    More later
    why do you keep calling this game 1 when they played yesterday?

  10. #10
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    why do you keep calling this game 1 when they played yesterday?
    Two reasons.

    1) I had the later game (LAD) on my mind as well when I was writing this which is indeed game 1.
    This is what happens when I multi-task too much, brain farts will occur. I will make an error or two if you are trying to juggle to many facts at the same time.

    2) Even though I am an I/T Operations Analyst by trade, writing, especially sports analytical writing is a hobby for me.
    If I did this for a living I would hire an editor so mental miscues would not show up, but since I don't write for a living and just post on my blog and here it would not make sense for me to hire an editor.

    Nobody is perfect, not even a perfect asshole.

    Lastly, thanks for the correction.
    Good catch.

    I will never jump ugly on someone when they point out I made an error.

    Never

  11. #11
    Heltah Skeltah
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    Lol..nash
    You never realized Tampa won already last night?

  12. #12
    Heltah Skeltah
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Two reasons.

    1) I had the later game (LAD) on my mind as well when I was writing this which is indeed game 1.
    This is what happens when I multi-task too much, brain farts will occur. I will make an error or two if you are trying to juggle to many facts at the same time.

    2) Even though I am an I/T Operations Analyst by trade, writing, especially sports analytical writing is a hobby for me.
    If I did this for a living I would hire an editor so mental miscues would not show up, but since I don't write for a living and just post on my blog and here it would not make sense for me to hire an editor.

    Nobody is perfect, not even a perfect asshole.

    Lastly, thanks for the correction.
    Good catch.

    I will never jump ugly on someone when they point out I made an error.

    Never
    Passive aggressive always wins

  13. #13
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heltah Skeltah View Post
    Lol..nash
    You never realized Tampa won already last night?
    I did.
    It was a brain fart.
    I admit it.

  14. #14
    Heltah Skeltah
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I did.
    It was a brain fart.
    I admit it.
    3-2 count and you fouled it off.

  15. #15
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heltah Skeltah View Post
    Passive aggressive always wins
    My wife can't stand my passive/aggressive ways.
    She loves me, just just can't stand that.
    Know why? You nailed it, it always wins.

    It's also (passive/aggressive) my poker style too,
    When other players figure that out they can't stand it either.

    But like I said, I am not perfect.

  16. #16
    Heltah Skeltah
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    My wife can't stand my passive/aggressive ways.
    She loves me, just just can't stand that.
    Know why? You nailed it, it always wins.

    It's also (passive/aggressive) my poker style too,
    When other players figure that out they can't stand it either.

    But like I said, I am not perfect.
    I am not close to perfect either ..was just busting chops
    You the most knowledgeable baseball guy I've read on these boards. I don't agree with all the analytic stuff but 2 each their own . You can make the numbers look good in any direction eventually

  17. #17
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heltah Skeltah View Post
    I am not close to perfect either ..was just busting chops
    You the most knowledgeable baseball guy I've read on these boards. I don't agree with all the analytic stuff but 2 each their own . You can make the numbers look good in any direction eventually
    Thanks.

    I knew you were playing with me too, I was having fun poking fun at myself too.

    All good.

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