Predicting 2020 NFL season stat leaders: Top passers, rushers, receivers and rookies
Predicting 2020 NFL season stat leaders: Top passers, rushers, receivers and rookies
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The 2020 NFL season kicks off this week, and we're already looking ahead to the end of the year. Which quarterback will throw the most touchdown passes? What about the rookie who will put up the most rushing yards? And the rookie receiver who will have the most catches?
We asked four of our NFL analysts to predict the stat leaders in 20 categories and explain their picks. Here are their predictions for the league's top passer, rusher, receiver and more, along with Mike Clay's projections (as of Sept. 3) for each category:
Which QB will have the most passing yards?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Matthew Stafford, Lions. With a leaky defense in Detroit, Stafford could be in a position to attack down the field in the passing game. In 2019, before he was shut down with an injury in Week 9, Stafford ranked fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,499), while averaging 10.3 air yards per attempt. With his high-level traits as a thrower, plus the ability to move and release the ball from multiple platforms, Stafford could top the 4,500 yard passing mark this season.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Big Ben will be eager to post big numbers coming off elbow surgery, and he loves to run the no-huddle offense in Randy Fichtner's system, which means 700 passing attempts is not off the table. Lots of intriguing weapons in this offense, too.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Matt Ryan, Falcons. Comfortable in the system, very familiar faces around him, always prolific. A healthy Calvin Ridley makes a third-year jump and former first-round Ravens pick Hayden Hurst is a much bigger addition than people are expecting him to be. Julio Jones is still there, last I checked.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Dak Prescott, Cowboys. You may have heard that Prescott, who ranked second in yards last year, is entering a contract season; he gets to do with the best arsenal of weapons in the NFL, throwing behind an offensive line that still ranks among the league's best.
Bowen: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. He's probably the safe play here, but it's also the right call given the offensive structure under coach Andy Reid when paired with the explosive play ability at the Chiefs' skill positions. The addition of rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a boost for his offense, as is the anticipated second-year jump for wide receiver MeCole Hardman. Look for Mahomes to throw 40-plus touchdowns this season.
Fowler: Carson Wentz, Eagles. He's healthy. He has two ideal red-zone targets in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. He has more speed around him than ever with DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor. And the Eagles have completely tailored the offense to his skill set. Returning to 2017 form (33 touchdowns in 13 games) is possible for Wentz.
Graziano: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. I'd have gone with Mahomes for yards, too, except I don't expect the Chiefs to be trailing very often. Mahomes is still in the early part of his prime, thrives in Andy Reid's offense and is surrounded with freakish targets.
Kimes: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. The best quarterback in football had a "down" regular season last year (he still finished second in adjusted net yards/attempt!) because of his ankle injury. He returns healthy, wealthy and surrounded by the same elite skill group he has been playing with since entering the league.
Bowen: Philip Rivers, Colts. The Colts could trend to a more run-heavy approach this season with Rivers at quarterback. However, the veteran has thrown 63 interceptions over the past four seasons, second-most in the league behind Jameis Winston. It's a combination of Rivers' overaggressive play style, plus his declining arm talent and lack of mobility that leads to turnovers.
Fowler: Jared Goff, Rams. Rivers should limit turnovers behind a stellar Colts offensive line. Goff, meanwhile, saw a decline in play last season that resulted in 16 picks. Although the Rams should be more balanced in 2020, as defenses adjust to their playaction, his deep-ball woes could continue.
Graziano: Daniel Jones, Giants. Now, now. Before anyone gets upset, I think Jones is a very good player who will put up strong numbers in his second season. But the Giants' defense looks as if it will be terrible, Jones will be throwing a lot, and he was something of a turnover machine in Year 1. I foresee more good than bad for Jones this year, but with Steelers/Bears/49ers right out of the gate, it'll be a wild ride.
Kimes: Sam Darnold, Jets. This hurts, because I think Darnold has an enticing skill set and has endured a substantial level of adversity in New York, but Jameis Winston's relegation to backup has opened the competition for picks. I fear that Darnold will still be in difficult positions in New York and will still try to do too much as a result.
Bowen: Lamar Jackson, Ravens. He led the NFL last season with a QBR of 81.8, and I believe Jackson will rank No. 1 again in 2020. It's the rushing totals that really help, as he produced 1,206 yards on the ground in 2019. He's also helped by an efficient Ravens passing game that creates conflict for opposing defenses, especially in the red zone.
Fowler: Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Wilson never has received an MVP vote. That changes in 2020 as Seattle pushes for contention. Last season, he ranked top five in QBR inside the pocket (fifth, 67.9) and outside of it (fourth, 82.8). If Seattle lets Wilson command more ownership of the offense, he should have chances to pump those numbers while throwing on the move.
Graziano: Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Just too high a rushing floor to pick anyone else. Jackson continues to develop as a passer, and while a repeat MVP performance may be unlikely, he still will excel under Greg Roman and make plays in all different ways -- which is what QBR is about, right? Winning plays, whether they be throws or not?
Kimes: Lamar Jackson, Ravens. It would be hard for Jackson to match his performance on the ground (the reigning MVP averaged 6.85 yards per carry, more than 2 yards more than the closest quarterback, Josh Allen), but his floor as a rusher is so high, and so devastating for defenses, that he's an easy choice for this category. How many rookie QBs will be starting by Week 8?
Bowen: One (Joe Burrow, Bengals). The No.1 overall pick -- who has the upper-level traits to transition quickly to the NFL game -- is slated to start Week 1, and I don't see another rookie getting the call by midseason. Justin Herbert could jump into the mix later in the year for the Chargers.
Fowler: Two (Joe Burrow, Bengals; Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins). The Fitzmagic runs out in Miami as the team realizes it's one more year away, setting the stage for Tua to get valuable snaps. Tyrod Taylor keeps the Chargers offense functioning -- and Herbert on the bench.
Graziano: Three (Joe Burrow, Bengals; Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins; Justin Herbert, Chargers). The Dolphins and Chargers will profess their preferences to sit Tua and Herbert as long as they can, but so did the Giants last year, and Jones started Week 3. The only way to keep a first-round rookie QB on the bench is to win (or, in one specific case, to have Aaron Rodgers), and there's a lot working against these three teams winning early. I almost said four here and threw in Jalen Hurts because Carson Wentz is always a health question, but I'm not sure he's the next man up. I do think he'll have played in a game by this point, just not as a starting QB.
Kimes: Three (Joe Burrow, Bengals; Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins; Justin Herbert, Chargers). Burrow is the only quarterback who will start Week 1, but I've seen too many teams pledge to sit their rookies, only to backtrack the second they encounter adversity. Who will be the NFL's leading rusher?
Bowen: Derrick Henry, Titans. Henry rushed for 1,540 yards -- at 5.1 yards per carry -- last season. He's a volume runner in an offensive system that leans on his downhill traits in a zone scheme to wear down opposing defenses. He had 303 carries -- in 15 regular season games. Look for Henry to get near the 300-carry mark as he leads the league in rushing for the second consecutive year.
Graziano: Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. Last year was the first time in his four NFL seasons that Elliott didn't lead the league in rushing yards per game. It's easy to forget about him, but he didn't fall off as significantly as you might think. And you can give me all the Mike McCarthy pass-happy talk you want, but he never has had a back like this, ever.
Kimes: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. This was a toss-up for me with Henry, but I think McCaffrey is less likely to see his production dip after a high-usage year. I also think the Panthers' offense, helmed by former LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady, will find creative ways to generate lighter boxes for him.
Bowen: Jonathan Taylor, Colts. The Rams' Cam Akers belongs in this discussion too, but I like Taylor behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Yes, he will share carries with Marlon Mack to start the year. However, given his explosive play ability -- he had 94 rushes of 15 yards or more during his college career -- I expect the rookie to see his volume increase early in the season.
Fowler: Cam Akers, Rams. We've heard all about the Rams' by-committee approach, but once Akers gets going, his explosion will be on display weekly. With 4.47 40-yard dash speed, he provides more downfield explosion than Todd Gurley could while he fought through knee issues last season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have a prominent role in the Chiefs' offense, but his ability as a receiver will affect his pure rushing totals.
Graziano: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens. I think we're all assuming Mark Ingram is the starter there, but I'm not sure he (a) still is or (b) will be for long. Dobbins offers an explosive element in the league's most run-heavy offense.
Kimes: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs. Unlike the other top rookie backs, Edwards-Helaire is the clear No. 1 in his backfield. He also benefits from playing in a high-octane Chiefs offense that forces defenses to play with lighter boxes.
Bowen: Dalvin Cook, Vikings. Cook led the NFL with 29 goal-to-go carries and posted 13 rushing scores last season. One of the league's best tight red zone runners, he combines upper-level acceleration and vision to find daylight for a run-heavy offense in Minnesota.
Fowler: Nick Chubb, Browns. A big selling point for first-year coach Kevin Stefanski is the vision of Chubb slashing defenses in his zone-based scheme. Chubb might be the game's purest runner of the football, and considering Stefanski's offense in Minnesota helped Cook produce 13 rushing touchdowns last season, gear up for similar results in Cleveland.
Graziano: Nick Chubb, Browns. A full year of Kareem Hunt sharing the backfield will slot both guys into more specific roles. Chubb is still the lead guy, and he's also Kevin Stefanski's best play near the goal line.
Kimes: Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. I was tempted to pick Cook here, but I'm pushing in all of my chips on the Cowboys' offense. Elliott tied with Christian McCaffrey with the second-most carries inside the 10-yard line, and I think Dak & Co. will put him in a similar position this season.
Bowen: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. Maybe Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara challenge here, but McCaffrey is the easy pick after racking up 116 receptions last season, second-most in the league behind Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. He's a volume target who will be utilized as a matchup weapon in Joe Brady's offense this season for the Panthers.
Fowler: Alvin Kamara, Saints. Kamara was banged up last season and is ready to carry a heavy workload in the passing game. There's an argument Kamara is the Saints' No. 2 receiver based on his versatility, and those guys get major numbers in a Drew Brees offense. Kamara will narrowly edge McCaffrey in this category.
Bowen: Alvin Kamara, Saints. After posting 31 total touchdowns over his first two years in the league, that number dropped to just six scores in 2019. With Kamara entering a contract year, though, I expect those scoring totals to climb. Look for coach Sean Payton to feature Kamara as both a runner and receiver when the ball gets into scoring position this season.
Fowler: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. Getting 400-plus touches in today's NFL is difficult, and with McCaffrey surpassing that number last season, he should build on his spectacular momentum in Carolina. I expect offensive coordinator Joe Brady to use McCaffrey in the slot consistently, which makes him a viable red zone target in so many ways.
Graziano: Saquon Barkley, Giants. A strong candidate for just about every one of these running back categories. Barkley, if he stays healthy all year, should pile up monster yardage in a Giants offense where he's clearly the top weapon.
Kimes: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. He's the most complete back in the league, and the Panthers' other weapons are good enough to keep defenses from selling out against him in the red zone as a rusher or receiver.
Bowen: Michael Thomas, Saints. It's the consistent target volume for Thomas and his route tree in New Orleans. Underneath quicks, schemed throws up the seams, more. In 2019, he led the NFL with 149 receptions. And over the past two seasons, Thomas has caught 274 passes -- on 333 targets -- in Payton's offense. He's a highly detailed route runner who can create separation consistently.
Fowler: Michael Thomas, Saints. There's no receiver who plays the volume game quite like Thomas, who can catch 100 passes a year off option routes alone. He's practically unguardable in that matchup. I like Keenan Allen as a sneaky option here as Tyrod Taylor's favorite new target.
Graziano: Michael Thomas, Saints. I was close to putting Davante Adams or Chris Godwin here just to have someone different, but how can you bet against the guy who has caught more passes in his first four years than anyone else ever has?
Kimes: Michael Thomas, Saints. Yes, new teammate Emmanuel Sanders will cut into his targets a bit, but Brees and Thomas have basically mind-melded at this point. The quarterback's accuracy in the intermediate area of the field is a perfect match for Thomas.
Bowen: Julio Jones, Falcons. I'll go with Jones in the Falcons' pass-heavy offense. Last season, he averaged 14.1 yards per catch (on 99 receptions) and 12.3 air yards per target. And he is still one of the league's most difficult matchups -- at all three levels of the route tree.
Fowler: Adam Thielen, Vikings. He was dominant in 2018 when healthy, and his target share should reach career-high levels with Stefon Diggs in Buffalo. Expect Thielen to be among league leaders in third-down conversions.
Graziano: Odell Beckham Jr., Browns. Yeah, remember him? Word out of Cleveland is that he's healthy and buying all the way in. And sure, you've heard that before, and they don't come a lot more mercurial than Beckham. But they don't come a lot better, either. He's 27 years old, and there's no way he's done.
Kimes: Michael Thomas, Saints. I was tempted to pick rising Bucs star Chris Godwin here, but I think New Orleans' continuity on offense will help them produce early on.
Bowen: Davante Adams, Packers. Over the past three seasons, Adams' 28 touchdown catches ranks second to only DeAndre Hopkins. And his 22 red zone touchdown receptions during that stretch lead the NFL. In Green Bay, Adams will see consistent volume as Aaron Rodgers' primary target, and his elite ability to win at the line of scrimmage creates scoring opportunities with the ball inside the 20-yard line.
Fowler: Kenny Golladay, Lions. Golladay's size and strength make him a potent red zone threat over the top. He has averaged 16.7 yards per catch for his career, and he posted 11 touchdowns with David Blough and Jeff Driskel as part-time quarterbacks last season. He will be emboldened entering Year 4 -- likely by new contract money.
Graziano: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks. Outside of Brees/Thomas in New Orleans, is there a more locked-in QB/WR tandem in the league in terms of trust? Super Bowl heartbreak jokes aside, the Seahawks really do like to throw the ball when they get into the red zone, and Wilson loves to find Lockett for the long ones, too.
Kimes: Michael Thomas, Saints. Sensing a theme? Thomas tied for the league lead in red zone touchdowns last season (eight). He topped all receivers in targets on throws inside the 20-yard line, and he had a 77% catch rate. If I was Drew Brees, I'd throw to him, too.
Bowen: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos. I'll take Jeudy given his pro-ready route-running traits in an upgraded Denver offense. The Alabama product has the separation ability to work the middle of the field on in-breakers, and the Broncos can scheme some vertical throws here too that cater to Jeudy's play speed.
Fowler: Henry Ruggs III, Raiders. The first receiver taken in the 2020 NFL draft will be a centerpiece in Las Vegas' playbook, and Tyrell Williams' move to injured reserve widens his workload. Ruggs has elite speed but showed in camp he can do much more as a route runner in the short and intermediate game. Watch for Van Jefferson to elevate the Rams' offense, too.
Graziano: Bryan Edwards, Raiders. Ruggs is the first-round pick, but Edwards has been the star of camp. Williams' injury elevates Edwards to the starting "X" receiver role in Oakland, and the camp chatter is that Derek Carr already loves the guy and is very comfortable throwing to him.
Kimes: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers. Aiyuk, who was a yards-after-catch monster at Arizona State, is a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense. I'm picking him because San Francisco needs him to thrive, given how injured its receiving group has been.
Bowen: Van Jefferson, Rams. Jefferson isn't a blazer, but his pro-ready route traits are a really good fit for Sean McVay's offense in L.A. That will allow Jefferson to separate on isolation routes or run in-breakers -- off play-action -- with quarterback Jared Goff throwing on-rhythm.
Fowler: Chase Claypool, Steelers. Claypool's unique speed-and-size combination allows him to line up wide or go over the middle, the perfect hybrid weapon for Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh doesn't have one receiver who dominates the ball, so Claypool should be able to create a target share.
Graziano: Bryan Edwards, Raiders. I mean, after everything I just said about him in the previous blurb, how could I pick anyone else?
Kimes: Van Jefferson, Rams. I'm always dubious of excessive training camp hype, but the clips we've seen of Jefferson have been tantalizing. While his athletic upside might not be as high as some of the other early picks, he could be the most pro-ready receiver in his class.
Clay's projection:
1. Michael Pittman Jr., Colts: 38 receptions, 522 yards, 4 TDs
2. Denzel Mims, Jets: 41 receptions, 528 yards, 3 TDs
3. Bryan Edwards, Raiders: 39 receptions, 500 yards, 3 TDs Which TE will be the most productive, factoring in yards, catches and touchdowns?
Bowen: George Kittle, 49ers. In Kyle Shanahan's heavily schemed passing game, the 49ers can create both matchups plus catch-and-run opportunities for Kittle as a volume target. In his past two seasons, Kittle has averaged 8.2 yards after the catch, tops among tight ends. He's a physical route runner with an extremely aggressive play style that leads to production on deep crossers, seams and unders.
Fowler: Evan Engram, Giants. The stage is set for the talented pass-catcher to have a huge year. Engram might be the game's best route-running tight end outside of Travis Kelce, and the Giants don't have a true No. 1 receiver to steal targets. Health is the only thing keeping him from 1,000-plus yards.
Graziano: Mark Andrews, Ravens. The rest of the Baltimore receiving corps is big on flash. But the way the offense operates, combined with a tough slate of cornerbacks on the Baltimore schedule, should funnel a ton of targets toward Andrews, who has been a downfield threat for Lamar Jackson so far.
Kimes: George Kittle, 49ers. When you factor in his coach, Kittle might be the most dynamic weapon in the NFL. He led all tight ends in both yards after the catch and yards per route run last season, and I see no reason why that changes.
Clay's projection:
1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs: 88 receptions, 1,096 yards, 9 TDs
2. George Kittle, 49ers: 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, 6 TDs
3. Zach Ertz, Eagles: 78 receptions, 828 yards, 7 TDs Which defender will lead the league in sacks?
Bowen: Danielle Hunter, DE, Vikings. Hunter has racked up 29 sacks over the past two seasons. He's long at the point of attack, with the ability to win with speed, power or counters. The 25-year-old Hunter has some explosive traits off the ball.
Fowler: Khalil Mack, OLB, Bears. He's the game's most gifted pass-rusher, and the arrival of Robert Quinn on the other side will bring balance to the Bears' defense. Mack faced fierce double teams all of last year and could have cleaner rushing lanes in 2020. T.J. Watt could push for the sack title, too.
Graziano: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. He had 13.5 in 2018 and he had 10 last year in 10 games before he got suspended. Garrett is one of the top pure talents in the league at his position, and by the time this year is over, he'll be in the conversation as one of the most productive, too.
Kimes: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. Before his suspension last season, Garrett was on pace to compete for Defensive Player of the Year; according to NFL Next Gen Stats, only Aaron Donald was beating his blocks faster. Cleveland rewarded him with a big contract, and Garrett should reward them with double-digit sacks and then some.
Bowen: Tre'Davious White, CB, Bills. White's six interceptions tied for the league lead last season, and I expect the Bills cornerback to continue his high-level ball production in 2020. The technique reaches clinic level when you study White's film, and his short-area speed puts him in a position to close on the throw.
Fowler: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Ravens. He's making a compelling case as a top-five corner, and this is the year he cements that status. Here's the problem: Marcus Peters gambles a lot, which results in interceptions. But Humphrey should play outside more this year and have plenty of chances to play the ball. With 40 pass deflections since 2017, a big interception year seems due. Also watch out for Green Bay's Jaire Alexander.
Kimes: Marcus Peters, CB, Ravens. Peters has 13 picks over the past three years, tied for best in the league. I expect that success to continue, given how Don Martindale's blitz-happy defense creates opportunities for him to make aggressive plays on the ball.
Bowen: Kenneth Murray, LB, Chargers. Murray has the athletic traits to play the Bobby Wagner role for the Chargers three-deep, zone-heavy scheme. He can get sideline to sideline in a hurry to track ball carriers, and the ability to move in space will allow Murray to make plays in coverage.
Fowler: Derrick Brown, DT, Panthers. The disruptive lineman had 33 tackles for loss at Auburn and should push pockets back in the NFL. With tackle Kawann Short turning 32 in February, Brown can become a central figure along the Panthers' line with a big rookie year.
Graziano: Chase Young, DE, Washington. Just a special player who could have the same kind of impact on this defense that Nick Bosa had last year on San Francisco's. And no, I'm not predicting a Super Bowl appearance for Washington. But the latest first-round pick in its defensive front is going to dominate from the get-go.
Kimes: Chase Young, DE, Washington. Anyone who watched Young at Ohio State knows he's the total package, with both advanced pass-rushing moves and explosive athleticism. The Washington defensive line, which is stocked with blue-chip talent, has underperformed thus far; the hope is that Young will be the final piece that unlocks his teammates.
Clay's projection:
1. Isaiah Simmons, Cardinals: 118 tackles, 9 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PD
2. Patrick Queen, Ravens: 117 tackles, 8 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PD
3. Kenneth Murray, Chargers: 103 tackles, 7 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD Which new head coach will win the most games in Year 1?
Bowen: Mike McCarthy, Cowboys. It has to be McCarthy given the team he takes over in Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys have some question marks in the defensive secondary, but this Dallas offense will score points and compete with the Eagles in the NFC East.
Fowler: Kevin Stefanski, Browns. Mike McCarthy inherits talent in Dallas, but Stefanski's arsenal of skill players in Cleveland is just as stout. Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are good building blocks on defense. Stefanski is known as a good communicator and well-organized and that will show in Year 1.
Graziano: Mike McCarthy, Cowboys. Yeah, give me McCarthy by a nose over Stefanski, if only because his division has more pushover games than Stefanski's does. But I think both make the playoffs.
Kimes: Mike McCarthy, Cowboys. I've got Dallas as a Super Bowl contender, so it goes without saying that I think McCarthy wins a lot of games. The Cowboys had the second-most efficient offense in football last year, and should be even better this season.
Clay's projection:
1. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys: 9.9
2. Kevin Stefanski, Browns: 8.7
3. Joe Judge, Giants: 6.4
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Predicting 2020 NFL season stat leaders: Top passers, rushers, receivers and rookies
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