1. #1
    Chi_archie
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    Pirates +130, Watch this Mitch Keller kid!

    Keeping with trying to find the talented young guys that had very bad starts to their big careers and hoping to find guys that show reason to believe they will return to their billed potential from the their amateur and farm numbers.

    for this year with high variance and more epistemic uncertainty I tweaked my approach to finding players and teams that the market will under or over estimate. This idea came from watching a lot of horse handicappers use the technique of "finding excuses" for a horse with pedigree or good past performances/workouts. To find a reason to discount data that has reason to be an aberation is where we can find edge, whether its a horse that ran a bad race due to bad track conditions, getting bumped out of the gate, or heels clicked in the turn or a pitcher with a shitty pitching coach or injury. We have to find quick potential market inefficiencies because we don't have a 162 game grind.

    Today's young pitcher with horrible surface stats, but good pedigree and pitch metrics is

    Mitch Keller for the Pirates.

    The Pirates pitching coach and team were known to get the very least out of their pitchers the last few years. We saw it with Morton, Cole, Glasnow ect. a big part of the problem was pitching coach Ray Searage's insistence on using 2 seamers and trying to pitch down in the strike zone, and not adapting as launch angles started to make that strategy extremely hittable.

    Keller is another guy that has high velocity and high spin rate, that can benefit from new pitching coach Oscar Marin's emphasis on higher strikes when situations dictate.

    keller showed promise through his minor league career and maybe got rushed to the big leagues due in injury and a shallow starting rotation.

    last year in 48 innings his Babip was an astronomical .475. this was literally the worst BABIP going back to 1900 for anyone pitching more than 40 innings. (Corbin Burnes from yesterday's write was the closet to him last year with .414)

    But Keller actually had above average Exit velocity against and hard hit %. So he for sure was getting a little bloops and seeing eye singles ect. His strand rate was near 60% meanwhile he had a 12.2 K per 9 inning rate. So when he wasn't being dinked and dunked he was getting a lot of swings and misses. He can throw 98 so this off season his work on adding a new change up to his nasty slider and decent curveball could be a game changer as his luck regresses and his BABIP goes down.

    A big unknown for these weird off seasons is knowing what players did with the down time. Keller invested in a high tech Rapsodo Baseball anaylsis equipment to work on his spin efficiency and spin axis to optimal performance. The word is that he has his spin efficiency up to the 95th percentile vs last year's major league pitchers data.

    I'm willing to take a shot that Keller is serviciable this year and shows glimpses of greatness and will win more than he loses as a dog. Taking the first five a bit heavier here, since it's the Pirates and their bullpen. But also taking full game action and going big on various overs on Keller strike outs. going to pay more juice today for lower #'s as I got burned with a big push yesterday due to an early exit, which i'm sure we will see a lot of these next few weeks.
    Points Awarded:

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  2. #2
    Mike Huntertz
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    Interesting angle. I like the 12.2K per 9 stat. I may try that SO prop.
    GL, great to be analyzing sports again.

  3. #3
    JayLA
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    i love me some archie reasoning. IN!

  4. #4
    RudyRuetigger
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    parlay (3 teams)
    [967] pit +134
    ( action )
    [970] chc -1Ĺ+160
    ( action )
    [973] laa -109
    ( action )
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/03/2020

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/23/2020


  5. #5
    johnnyvegas13
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    I gave this play a good look but pass

    gl

  6. #6
    sosawestbrook
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    yessir

  7. #7
    lakerboy
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    Good luck. I'm done with the pirates so you will be fine
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/03/2020

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/27/2020


  8. #8
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Good luck. I'm done with the pirates so you will be fine
    Agree

    prob value but can’t trust these bums

  9. #9
    RiverRaid
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    I got him in one of my FanDuel lineups. Only cost 6500.

  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Good luck Archery

  11. #11
    RiverRaid
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    Also nice write up.

  12. #12
    Chi_archie
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    8 pitch 1-2-3 first but no K's

    Not seeing the velocity I expected.

  13. #13
    sosawestbrook
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    yeah velo way down...weird

  14. #14
    PAULYPOKER
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    Well I'll be fukked!

  15. #15
    PAULYPOKER
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    Especially with the neighborhood Drunkard on em!

  16. #16
    sosawestbrook
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    fastball still got some sneaky giddy up on it though.

  17. #17
    sosawestbrook
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    looks like the kiddo will be pulled soon.

  18. #18
    Chi_archie
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    Don't like the texture of this one at all

  19. #19
    PAULYPOKER
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    I have YouTube TV now and they don't offer AT&T Sports Net
    so I can't see anymore Bucco's games.

    Streaming is not safe anymore because browsers discontinued supporting flash
    making flash player an unsecured source.

  20. #20
    Chi_archie
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    Ok now

  21. #21
    JayLA
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    let's go

  22. #22
    KVB
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    Way to think it out Archie.

    Win or lose you provided everyone with some insight and things to look into for their own handicapping.

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  23. #23
    Chi_archie
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    Lets get 4 quick first five insurance runs here

  24. #24
    Chi_archie
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    FF boom goes the dynamite

  25. #25
    sosawestbrook
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    kiddo was oddly dynamite today..don't really know what to make of him going forward.

  26. #26
    pablo222
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    Very nice arch

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  27. #27
    jjgold
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    Archie you know what your doing now

  28. #28
    KVB
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    $20
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  29. #29
    INVEGA MAN
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    Thank you

  30. #30
    mackave
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    letís fukkkkkin gooooo ! thx took the -1.5 for $300

  31. #31
    Brock Landers
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    Good call Archie

  32. #32
    Mr. Teaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    FF boom goes the dynamite
    Good call. Nicely done.

  33. #33
    PAULYPOKER
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    What ya think bout this Keller kid's chances tonight Arch?

  34. #34
    Chi_archie
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    I'm very cautious my optimistic

    Tough lineup for this kid to face tonight

  35. #35
    jolyolyolyman
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    On it. Kid can pitch. I think itís +160 on FanDuel now

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