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Best bets for Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway 🏁
Best bets for Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway
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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Fort Worth, Texas, on Sunday for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
Long shot Cole Custer (200-1) got his first Cup Series victory last Sunday. The rookie emerged after a late restart and finished just ahead of Martin Truex Jr. to win the Quaker State 400 in Kentucky. Who will take the checkered flag this Sunday (3 p.m. ET) at Texas Motor Speedway?
ESPN Fantasy's Mike Clay and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Kevin Harvick (+350)
Symmes: Harvick should be the first driver who comes to mind when the conversation turns to Texas. His numbers are eye-popping, as he has won three of the past five Texas races and has finished no worse than 10th there since 2014 (11 races). In a 2020 season that is quickly becoming one of his finest, Harvick has been a player on 1.5-mile tracks, with a win and five top-10s in six races. Past results, current mojo -- it all favors Harvick, who could be poised for a dominant performance on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney (9-1)
Symmes: It feels wrong to handicap a race on a 1.5-mile track and not include Blaney. The Team Penske driver had one of the best cars last weekend at Kentucky, and he led 70 laps and finished third at Homestead on June 14. In fact, since racing resumed in May, there have been five races on 1.5-mile tracks. Can you guess who has the best average finish in that chunk? That's right, it's Blaney (3.8), who is pretty good at Texas with four top-10s in his past five starts.
Clay: Blaney spent much of last Sunday driving one-handed through Turns 1 and 2 to prevent his car from jumping out of fourth gear. He was seemingly unfazed because he finished the race fastest overall despite not enjoying a significant clean-air advantage (he led just 18 laps). This has become a trend for him in 2020. Per racing analyst Kevin Matz, Blaney currently ranks first in green-flag speed on 1.5-mile ovals. When it comes to Texas, he has two top-5s at the track since its reconfiguration prior to 2017. It would be a surprise if we get through the summer without seeing Blaney in victory lane at a 1.5-miler.
Aric Almirola (25-1)
Symmes: Harvick wasn't the only Stewart-Haas Racing driver to thrive at Texas last year. Almirola finished second to Harvick in the fall race and was seventh in the spring. And that was during a season in which Almirola struggled to find consistency. It's been a much different story in 2020, as Almirola has emerged as a front-runner. He has been a regular in the top 5 for several weeks, and he led a race-high 128 laps last weekend at Kentucky. An Almirola win doesn't appear to be far off, and don't be surprised if it comes on Sunday.
Sleeper
Erik Jones (33-1)
Symmes: Jones has struggled over the past two weeks, but he'll look to turn things around at one of his best tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has scored five straight top-10s at Texas, with three fourth-place finishes during that span.
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Originally Posted by carolinakid
