1. #36
    MeanPeopleSuck
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    The election will likely be decided by events outside of both candidates control. If their is a vaccine more than a month before the election that could change everything. This is the most fluid presidential race in many years and the polls in swing states are much closer than the national polls.
    Good point about the swing state polls being closer than the national polls, but that's offset somewhat by the fact that the amount of swing states has gotten larger, all at Trump's expense.

    Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and NC all would've started the cycle pink, but now have to be considered toss ups. On the other side, I can't think of a single light blue state we've had to add to the tossup pile.

  2. #37
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeanPeopleSuck View Post
    Yeah, McGovern's campaign was a comedy of errors, but even if it hadn't been nobody was beating Nixon in '72.

    In a 9 month span he went to Beijing and reopened China for the first time in 25 years AND he went to Moscow and signed the SALT I Treaty, ushering in the era of detente. I think Nixon (possibly with Kissinger) deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for 1972.

    And let's not forget Adlai Stevenson, the only nominee to get blown out in a landslide twice. That's gotta be worth some "I suck" points.
    LOL. Thanks for sharing. I was born after McGovern but know historically he sucked.

    Just looked up Stevenson... my oh my. Back to back beat downs. Thatís pretty bold to send him back up there. Like Red Ass trying to get his bike back from Debo. Whatís most noticeable is looking at the electoral map during that time. Such a different country now.

  3. #38
    MeanPeopleSuck
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjsuax13 View Post
    What’s most noticeable is looking at the electoral map during that time. Such a different country now.
    Totally agree, the changes have been insane. Check out the map for '76. You'd think some intern got the colors reversed: https://www.270towin.com/1976_Election/

  4. #39
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeanPeopleSuck View Post
    Totally agree, the changes have been insane. Check out the map for '76. You'd think some intern got the colors reversed: https://www.270towin.com/1976_Election/
    Wow. Iím going to look at more of these. 76! Damn!!!!
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  5. #40
    Unrivaled
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    When the corinavurus spikes in the fall people will blame Trump no matter what. I would take Biden for sure, and pray he doesn't die in the next couple months.

  6. #41
    darrell74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otters27 View Post
    Maybe. Biden might get to -200
    It's possible
    However, 2 months ago, Biden was +money

  7. #42
    johnnyvegas13
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    So obv trump will win

    books only hope to trick u guys w line move
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  8. #43
    manny24
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    can't wait for the triggered meltdowns should be epic

  9. #44
    thetrinity
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    Some good points here that I second made by navy blue and morino, especially that this is a fluid election. A lot will change by November.
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  10. #45
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by manny24 View Post
    can't wait for the triggered meltdowns should be epic
    If trump does win, this will be on a much grander scale than 2016.
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  11. #46
    jjgold
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    Otter chalks are always for suckers

  12. #47
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeanPeopleSuck View Post
    Good point about the swing state polls being closer than the national polls, but that's offset somewhat by the fact that the amount of swing states has gotten larger, all at Trump's expense.

    Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and NC all would've started the cycle pink, but now have to be considered toss ups. On the other side, I can't think of a single light blue state we've had to add to the tossup pile.
    Georgia and Ohio are not toss ups, I do agree that their are more states in play though this time around.

  13. #48
    thetrinity
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    Looking at the 270 map, I have to disagree with some of these. Iowa as pink? Didnít the DNC completely penetrate up the caucus. Michigan as light blue? Didnt trump win there 4 years ago and they have an idiot D governor? Arizona and Florida should lean trump you still have a lot of old people and Cubans in Florida that hate Fidel Castro. I put Maine all blue and Nebraska all red for arguments sake and that puts it 244-233 trump. Michigan Pa Wis and NC tossups. Maybe he blows Georgia and Ohio if things go awry.
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  14. #49
    INVEGA MAN
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    Get this before aug 28th because they say its going to go to -200

  15. #50
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by INVEGA MAN View Post
    Get this before aug 28th because they say its going to go to -200
    I will gladly take trump +170 , +180

  16. #51
    Slurry Pumper
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    I can't back a can'tidate at -145 when he can't find his way out of the basement or can't construct a sentence much less an entire paragraph. I'll be on the Trumpster at plus money. I think the polls are off. First off who in their right mind even response to the polls? Even if I did, I would lie and say I like the dude who I really don't. I also believe that allot of Trumpo supporters are in the closet and will not tell anyone they are voting for the Trumpenator.

    Finally who is the Biden picking for VP? He is running out of black women to vet right. Kamala is a prosecutor so that doesn't sit well with the BLM crowd. The lady from Orlando is a former cop so she has the same problem. That pretty much leaves Stacey Abrams who is a sore loser with no political wins ever in life. Maybe he can convince himself that Big Chief Dancing Spaz Warren isn't actually white.

  17. #52
    Hot Jerry
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    Yes , I think so . [ -145 ] - I will take it !!

  18. #53
    navyblue81
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeanPeopleSuck View Post
    Totally agree, the changes have been insane. Check out the map for '76. You'd think some intern got the colors reversed: https://www.270towin.com/1976_Election/
    Usually, whoever wins FL wins the WH. Same thing should happen this go around. The curveball could be Arizona because their electorate is different than Fla., Mich, Pa., and Wisconsin. They are surrounded by blue states and seem to be headed more that way, which could be enough to tilt the election for Joe. Too early to say, though.

    By the way, new TG poll out today shows Michigan a dead heat between Trump-Biden. New NC poll shows Trump +3. I would say that's good news for Trump given he's probably as low as he may ever be and he's still polling well in battleground states. He's getting killed in national polls, but they tend to target more big city populations. He's doing better in state polls.

  19. #54
    jjgold
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    silent majority

  20. #55
    thomorino
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    2 things I keep hearing that are wrong is that their is an enthusiasm gap and that Biden can’t win because he’s a weak candidate. The left is not enthusiastic about Biden but they are enthusiastic about beating trump so I don’t see an enthusiasm gap even though no one seems to care much for Biden. The other point is that when first term presidents are up for re-election the election is mostly a referendum on the incumbent. Biden is dumb, corrupt, and his campaign has no ideas, but the election will still likely mostly be a referendum on Trump.

  21. #56
    Black Coffee
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    If Trump wants to win, he should probably stop tweeting sh*t like this...














    Donald J. Trump



    @realDonaldTrump




    2h









    PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!



  22. #57
    pavyracer
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    I have Biden at +125. Looking to grab some Trump when he hits +150.

  23. #58
    Black Coffee
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    Bunker Boy should also stop saying sh*t like...


    Kung Flu...

    Slow the testing down...

  24. #59
    RockBottom
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    I would only bet the D's to win or some prop like the No on Trump getting re-elected.
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  25. #60
    topgame85
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    Trump will get closer to +200 by the election. Media already ramming +14 polls into the headlines. Biden should have what is an insurmountable lead but is a moron for pledging to select a female VP, and what now looks likely to be unqualified minority women as the only remaining candidates. This could narrow his lead, and with the right amount of voter suppression Trump may just hang on. It will be much more interesting that it should be. All Biden had to do was choose someone like Cory Booker and it would have been game over.

  26. #61
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    2 things I keep hearing that are wrong is that their is an enthusiasm gap and that Biden can’t win because he’s a weak candidate. The left is not enthusiastic about Biden but they are enthusiastic about beating trump so I don’t see an enthusiasm gap even though no one seems to care much for Biden. The other point is that when first term presidents are up for re-election the election is mostly a referendum on the incumbent. Biden is dumb, corrupt, and his campaign has no ideas, but the election will still likely mostly be a referendum on Trump.
    This is a very good post and Iíve said much of the same thing.

  27. #62
    jonal
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    silent majority
    2016 Popular votes
    Hillary Clinton = 65,853,514
    Donald Trump = 62,984,828

    In before excuses from Trump supporters on how "unfair" this upcoming election will be... Trump is already teeing up some fake news on how the Dems will steal the election, due to mail in ballots. Ask Trump what he plans to do about it, says all you need to know. What a disgraceful boy Trump is.

  28. #63
    navyblue81
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonal View Post
    2016 Popular votes
    Hillary Clinton = 65,853,514
    Donald Trump = 62,984,828

    In before excuses from Trump supporters on how "unfair" this upcoming election will be... Trump is already teeing up some fake news on how the Dems will steal the election, due to mail in ballots. Ask Trump what he plans to do about it, says all you need to know. What a disgraceful boy Trump is.
    Yeah, because the popular vote actually means something. There's a reason we don't use the popular vote. We're the United States, not the United Nation.

  29. #64
    MeanPeopleSuck
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Georgia and Ohio are not toss ups, I do agree that their are more states in play though this time around.
    I've actually got bets on Trump to win both Georgia and Ohio, so I share your belief that both states will inch back onto the red side, but given current polling it's basically impossible not to call them tossups:

    Ohio: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-general/ohio/

    Georgia: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/georgia/

  30. #65
    MeanPeopleSuck
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    Usually, whoever wins FL wins the WH. Same thing should happen this go around. The curveball could be Arizona because their electorate is different than Fla., Mich, Pa., and Wisconsin. They are surrounded by blue states and seem to be headed more that way, which could be enough to tilt the election for Joe. Too early to say, though.

    By the way, new TG poll out today shows Michigan a dead heat between Trump-Biden. New NC poll shows Trump +3. I would say that's good news for Trump given he's probably as low as he may ever be and he's still polling well in battleground states. He's getting killed in national polls, but they tend to target more big city populations. He's doing better in state polls.
    Good post, solid points.

  31. #66
    pimike
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    Quote Originally Posted by INVEGA MAN View Post
    Get this before aug 28th because they say its going to go to -200
    Lol

    Who is ďTheyĒ?

    CNN?

    Lol

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  32. #67
    lonegambler23
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    Quote Originally Posted by darrell74 View Post
    If you're a gambler, get Trump +120
    Then, when Trump gets steam, and becomes the favorite at -145, take Biden +120

    The reason why I say this is because this election cycle is volatile and toxic. These lines will spike.

    We don't have those lines in Vegas, so I can't bet it. But that's what I would do.
    offshore>vegas lol

  33. #68
    jonal
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    Yeah, because the popular vote actually means something. There's a reason we don't use the popular vote. We're the United States, not the United Nation.
    i spew sometimes.

  34. #69
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeanPeopleSuck View Post
    I've actually got bets on Trump to win both Georgia and Ohio, so I share your belief that both states will inch back onto the red side, but given current polling it's basically impossible not to call them tossups:

    Ohio: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-general/ohio/

    Georgia: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/georgia/
    Trump is at the lowest point of his presidency in the polls right now, he’s not likely to be where he is now on Election Day.

  35. #70
    pablo222
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    I got Trump loses election at plus $ a while back because I am not sure Biden makes it to election. This is 2020 after all.

    I don't think Trump has done much to help himself the past few months, but a lot can happen between now and November.

    Be nice to have two decent candidates to choose from.

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