[Hman]

Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Homestead

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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Homestead, Florida, on Sunday for the Dixie Vodka 400.


Martin Truex Jr. got his first win of the season Wednesday night at Martinsville, his second consecutive at the track. Who will take the checkered flag in Sunday's race at (3:30 p.m. ET) at Homestead-Miami Speedway?


ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, Fantasy's Mike Clay and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.


Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.

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Best bets

Martin Truex Jr. (+450)

McGee: Truex is on a pair of rolls -- in 2020 and at Homestead. He just won at Martinsville, as you know. But you may not know that he could have easily won the last three in a row at Homestead, all season finales with potential Cup Series on the line. Of course, he won both there in 2017, the race and the title. But the past two trips to South Florida also resulted in a pair of runner-up efforts, again, both in the race and in the final standings. I'm still not sure how he lost the last race there, on Nov. 17, 2019, when he led four times for more than 100 laps. He's still not sure how he lost it, either.


Symmes: Homestead is usually the home of the NASCAR season finale, and Championship 4 regulars Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Truex have been stellar there in recent years. Of the group, Harvick has best average Homestead finish since 2014 (2.8), but I'll take Truex on Sunday. Wednesday night's Martinsville winner has finishes of first, second and second at Homestead since 2017. If not for an ill-timed caution in 2018 and a disastrous pit stop last November, he could be riding a three-race Homestead winning streak. One thing to keep in mind, however: Truex has won back-to-back Cup races only once in his career. (He opened the 2019 playoffs with victories at Las Vegas and Richmond.)


Clay: Following a quick stop at a short track (Martinsville), NASCAR returns to a non-drafting intermediate oval this weekend in Homestead. Harvick seemingly dominated at a similar track last weekend, but note that, per racing analyst Kevin Matz, it was Truex who finished atop the speed rankings. Truex sits fourth on the season in combined green-flag speed on this track type. The speed should carry over to Homestead where Truex was second quickest overall and fastest on long-green flag runs during last season's finale. In that race, both he and Kyle Busch led in excess of 100 laps, but Truex scored twice as many fastest laps in comparison to his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate. Wednesday's Martinsville winner is set up with a promising opportunity to make it two in a row on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney (10-1)

Symmes: If one of the aforementioned Cup champions doesn't win on Sunday, there's a good chance Blaney will. The Team Penske driver appears to be getting closer and closer to his first victory of 2020. He was second Wednesday night at Martinsville, impressively driving through the field twice after early handling issues and then a pit-road penalty. And that was on a half-mile paperclip, not a 1.5-mile circuit (like Homestead) that has been his strength this season. Blaney has two third-place finishes and a fourth in the past three races on 1.5-mile tracks.


Clay: Believe it or not, Blaney will enter Sunday with the fastest ranking car on non-drafting intermediates, per Matz. Much like Auto Club and Atlanta, tire wear will be a significant factor at Homestead. Blaney successfully managed tire falloff at each of those tracks earlier this season, ranking among the top-five quickest during long green-flag runs. During last year's race, Blaney was fifth in average running position behind the four championship contenders. He also had the sixth-fastest car and fared well on long runs. These are attractive odds for a definitive favorite.

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Sleeper

Matt Kenseth (100-1)

McGee: When Kenseth retired in 2018 he was a Homestead-Miami master, with "only" one win, but 11 top 10's in 19 starts, including a run of six finishes of eighth or better when he hung up his helmet. So, if he finishes in the top 10 this weekend, two years after his last start there, is that still considered a streak? Would we still call that "consecutive top-10 finishes at Homestead" even if they technically aren't consecutive? Have I mentioned that I was in Confederate flag Hades all week and I'm kind of tired right now?

[manny24]

Bowyer +2800

[Tanko]

Hman.... Dumb question. Can Kenseth qualify for the Chase if he wins a race?
Is there a requirement on the number of races to qualify for the chase?

I vaguely remember Kyle Busch getting a "waiver" or something a couple years ago (2015 or 2016)?

[Hman]

Hman.... Dumb question. Can Kenseth qualify for the Chase if he wins a race?

Pretty sure that used to be the case, but i don't know now.

I don't follow the sport as closely anymore, so someone who does will likely have the answer.