UFC Fight Night: Best bets for Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC is moving back to Las Vegas this weekend, opening up its newly built Apex facility to host its first full fight card. Headlining Saturday's main event is former champion Tyron Woodley against the streaking dual-threat Brazilian Gilbert Burns. We'll take a close look at the main event, plus explore betting value elsewhere down the card.
Prelims commence at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 9 p.m.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Welterweight main event: No. 1 Tyron Woodley (-180) vs. No. 6 Gilbert Burns (+160)
Tale Of The Tape
TYRON WOODLEY GILBERT BURNS Last fight weight class Welterweight Welterweight Age 38 33 Height 69 70 Reach 74 71 Stance Orthodox Southpaw Analyzed minutes 218 144 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 11:1 4:4 Distance knockdown rate 8.9% 3.1% Head jab accuracy 19% 17% Head power accuracy 28% 29% Total standup strike ratio 0.7 0.9 Striking defense Total head strike defense 79% 69% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 98% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.22 0.54 Takedown accuracy 30% 39% Advances per takedown/top control 0.5 1.0 Opponent takedown attempts 55 18 Takedown defense 93% 44% Share of total ground time in control 61% 81% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.20 0.21
The stylistic dynamics make this main event more intriguing than just clarifying the upper pecking order for the welterweight division. It pits two decorated grapplers in opposing styles who have both morphed into power strikers in the UFC. So what will be the dominant style that determines the outcome? Woodley's wrestling? Burns' jiu-jitsu? Will either man's power striking overtake the other's?
It's hard to say, because it depends on some strategic decisions. Woodley, one of the best wrestlers in the division, has rarely actually used his wrestling to win fights. And in this case, would a wrestler want to risk long periods on the ground with a highly decorated jiu-jitsu ace such as Burns? However, after Woodley's submission of Darren Till, he was officially awarded his black belt in jiu-jitsu by his coach, Din Thomas. So maybe there's more confidence than ever in Woodley's ground game to dictate rounds in a five-round fight.
Statistically, Burns is much more likely to attempt takedowns. But in this matchup, other factors suggest he is unlikely to get control on the ground. Burns' takedown success rate is barely average, while Woodley's takedown defense is best in class. If Burns can't take the fight to the ground, the question will be whether he simply lets Woodley get a takedown in order for Burns to go for submissions. Burns' takedown defense is well below average, while Woodley's rate of attempts is relatively low. This still puts Woodley in the driver's seat of determining the position of the fight and also suggests that a grappling match might not happen at all.
Either way, we'll definitely see these two men stand and trade at some point. On paper, there are some clear similarities -- and a few important differences. First, both strikers are more hesitant than average, usually opting to allow opponents to initiate. That could lead to a long feeling-out process and lots of staring and circling. When the leather starts to fly, both fighters rarely rely on jabs; they mostly throw power -- and do so with similar accuracy.
The biggest differences could be critical if they stand in the pocket. While both men have racked up knockout victories, Woodley's knockdown rate is the best in the division and almost three times higher than Burns'. And defensively, Woodley's head strike avoidance is better than Burns'. That means Woodley is more likely to land and will hit harder when he does.
Lastly, some caveats. The numbers definitely aren't counting Burns out. However, more of his career was spent at lightweight against fighters who couldn't hit or take a hit like welterweights. Therefore, the strength of schedule also favors Woodley.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Woodley. Pass at current prices; they could come back down.
Other fight card values
The biggest favorite on the card is Mackenzie Dern (-380). As one of the most decorated submission wrestlers currently in the game, it was surprising when she dropped her first MMA fight in her most recent outing. Keep in mind, that performance came just four months after she gave birth. With more time to physically recover and mentally adjust, we should see her return to form against an opponent who will be at a disadvantage on the mat in Hannah Cifers (+310).
E+ recommends: ML play on Dern and for parlays.
A potential long shot play comes from Louis Smolka (+230), the third-biggest underdog on the card. He has moved to bantamweight for his second shot at a UFC career, but the wily Hawaiian was a finisher even at flyweight. Let's see if he comes in looking a bit more fit for the division. He faces Casey Kenney (-270).
E+ recommends: ML lean on Smolka at higher than +200.