[Hman]

Best bets for Wednesday's NASCAR race at Darlington


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The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Darlington Raceway on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET), just three days after Kevin Harvick found victory at that very track. The rare weekday race will see an altered format that includes no practice or qualifying and a starting grid determined by inverting the top 20 finishers from Sunday's competition.


This past weekend provided a blend of expected dominance from the usual favorites along with a late-race emergence from some notable surprises.


Here are my picks for the return to Darlington, South Carolina.


Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday unless otherwise noted.

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Best bets


Kevin Harvick (5-1)

Harvick entered Sunday with the third-fastest car over the past three races on non-drafting ovals. When all was said and done, he showed that he hadn't lost an ounce of speed during the nine-week pause due to the coronavirus pandemic. Based on his finishing position, he will roll off 20th to start Wednesday's race. When the green flag drops, there will be eight cars ahead of Harvick that ranked 15th or worse in average speed on Sunday. Expect Harvick and the other front-runners to make their way into the top 10 before the scheduled competition caution.


With 159 laps led, it should be no surprise that Harvick had the fastest car during green-flag runs on Sunday. In fact, he had the quickest average time for all laps in which he was not the leader. Going back-to-back in the Cup series across a four-day span would be a historic event, but there is certainly enough here to believe he can get it done. Harvick is my pick for an encore Wednesday night.

Denny Hamlin (7-1)
It's surprising that Hamlin never saw the lead this past weekend. He scored a top-5 and achieved an average running position of sixth while never falling outside the top 10 under green-flag conditions. From a speed standpoint, the entirety of Joe Gibbs Racing had been coming up short of expectations leading into Darlington. Hamlin bucked the trend with a car that ranked third in that category on Sunday afternoon.


At Darlington last season, Hamlin spent nearly 75% of the night inside the top 10. Unfortunately, he was running fourth when a lapped car blew a tire and collected him in the wreckage with fewer than 100 to go. There's no doubt that Hamlin has this track figured out (he won there in 2017). If you're doubting that Harvick can repeat, there's no better option than Hamlin.


Erik Jones (20-1)
I'm going to say this up front -- Erik Jones is the best value bet for Wednesday night. He held off Kyle Busch for 41 laps to win last season's Darlington Southern 500. In the final quarter of that race, he initially captured the lead on a restart from the inside row, a feat that is rarely seen at Darlington, where the outside carries a considerable advantage.


On Sunday, he ranked seventh in both restart speed and overall speed. His restart prowess will be especially useful when lining up on the inside. Clinging to as much track position as possible will be crucial in a race that will be 90 miles shorter than the last outing. Jones starts 13th on Wednesday, and you can expect to see him break into the top 10 early as the slower cars ahead become overwhelmed by superior pace.

Long shots

Tyler Reddick (60-1)
Reddick began his Sunday afternoon buried deep in the field at 29th. Those who identified him as an obvious DraftKings play were rewarded, as he climbed through the field and cracked the top 10 by Lap 75. A tire violation during a pit stop on Lap 156 put him right back into 29th. If you thought the first effort was a fluke, Reddick put that to rest 70 laps later when he resurfaced in 10th. He remained near the front to finish eighth.


By my analysis, he had the eighth-fastest car on Sunday. He rolls off 14th tomorrow and will have half as many cars ahead of him this time around. It's likely he remains in the mix for the duration of the race, and he already has proved that he can navigate a setback or two. A car with top-10 speed should not be passed on at 60-1.

Best DFS plays for DraftKings

Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch will be heavily rostered with their deep starting positions. Feel free to sprinkle them across several of your fantasy lineups. The tougher decision will be choosing among the favorites starting between 15th and 20th. I'm planning to build my lineups around the following two drivers from that group:

DRIVER	STARTING POSITION	SALARY	EXPECTED ROSTER INCLUSION
Denny Hamlin	16	$10,700	High
Chase Elliott	17	$10,300	High

The following table presents drivers with salaries under $9,000 who have an optimal mix of starting position and upside. Combine these picks with favorites to complete your lineups.

DRIVER	STARTING POSITION	SALARY	EXPECTED ROSTER INCLUSION
William Byron	34	$8,900	High
Kurt Busch	18	$8,700	High
Erik Jones	13	$8,500	High
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	3	$7,900	Medium
Tyler Reddick	14	$7,700	Medium
Christopher Bell	24	$6,800	Low
Cole Custer	22	$6,600	Low
Corey LaJoie	31	$5,500	Low

[jjgold]

I wonder why they’re racing on a Wednesday