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UFC 249: Best bets for Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
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Mixed Martial Arts is back in your life -- and your sportsbook. The UFC returns Saturday after its longest hiatus since 2006 with UFC 249, the first of three fight cards in just eight days.
The event in Jacksonville, Florida, this week will have two titles on the line -- Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje for interim lightweight and Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz for bantamweight -- plus a card stacked with former title contenders and UFC headliners. It might be one of the most talented fight cards in UFC history. Most of the country is staying at home, which, combined with the dearth of active sports leagues, should mean a lot of eyes will be on the fight game. It's a good thing the matchmakers delivered.
Below, we look at the two title fights in detail and explore value among favorites and underdogs elsewhere on the card.
Prelims from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. on pay-per-view.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday morning.
Interim lightweight championship: Tony Ferguson (-175) vs. Justin Gaethje (+145)
Tale Of The TapeThe main event has all the necessary ingredients for a barn burner. You have two fighters who go all-in on exciting fights and have the performance metrics to back up the expectation of a fight of the night. Neither man relies on takedowns, and Gaethje, despite a wrestling background, has yet to land a takedown in the UFC. Layer onto that precise offensive striking with below-average head-strike avoidance, and we could see both men find success in a back-and-forth slobberknocker.
TONY FERGUSON JUSTIN GAETHJE Last fight weight class Lightweight Lightweight Age 36 31 Height 71 71 Reach 76 70 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 161 48 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 3:4 3:1 Distance knockdown rate 1.1% 1.5% Head jab accuracy 39% 36% Head power accuracy 32% 40% Total standup strike ratio 1.3 0.7 Striking defense Total head strike defense 71% 63% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.11 0.02 Takedown accuracy 43% 0% Advances per takedown/top control 0.6 NA Opponent takedown attempts 44 10 Takedown defense 75% 80% Share of total ground time in control 23% 51% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.88 0.00
The ground game offers some unknowns. Will Gaethje try to switch his strategy and wrestle for ground and pound? Will Ferguson try to pull Gaethje forward to throw endless submissions? If they stand and trade leather, will it be Ferguson's higher pace and more diverse striking that causes accumulating damage or Gaethje's sudden, wild shots across the chin that finally stop Ferguson by strikes for the first time in his career?
The fight arc is clear. Gaethje's aggression and power will be a big risk early on, but when he doesn't stop the fight in the first round, he can wilt under pressure. Ferguson is perfectly suited to this plan, having recovered from early damage in fights to pour on the pace with an endless gas tank. It's unlikely that this will go the distance, and though there's still early risk, look for Ferguson to ride out the storm and get a late finish. There's more risk for Ferguson than Gaethje, but the lines are also priced accordingly. If Ferguson's line rises, a lottery ticket on Gaethje in Round 1 becomes cheap and interesting.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Ferguson. Fight does not go the distance for parlays.
Bantamweight championship: Henry Cejudo (-230) vs. Dominick Cruz (+185)
Tale Of The Tape
DOMINICK CRUZ HENRY CEJUDO Last fight weight class Bantamweight Bantamweight Age 35 33 Height 68 64 Reach 68 64 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 231 139 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 1:2 4:1 Distance knockdown rate 0.4% 2.4% Head jab accuracy 25% 22% Head power accuracy 23% 28% Total standup strike ratio 1.2 0.9 Striking defense Total head strike defense 83% 77% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.52 0.50 Takedown accuracy 52% 35% Advances per takedown/top control 0.5 0.7 Opponent takedown attempts 48 11 Takedown defense 85% 91% Share of total ground time in control 96% 99% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.02 0.10
Cejudo has made his new home in the bantamweight division and is coming off back-to-back TKO wins against top challengers, including former bantamweight champ TJ Dillashaw. The recent betting market has been down on Cejudo, making him the underdog in his past three fights -- all title bouts that he won. He's finally the favorite, and it's likely the nature of his opponent's career trajectory that has boosted Cejudo's stock. Cruz, a former bantamweight champ, is returning to the cage after 1,226 days, bringing with him a history of bad injuries and long layoffs. Despite being just 35, Cruz has baggage and ring rust that have likely made the market doubtful of seeing his peak form this weekend.
Even if Cruz performs to his potential, he'll be facing an opponent who is tailored to face his awkward, high-volume striking game. Cejudo is one of the few fighters who can negate Cruz's wrestling base, and Cejudo continues to improve his boxing. In particular, Cejudo punches above his weight with power and likes to swing for the fences when the timing is right. If he's smart, he'll be watching a lot of tape on Cruz's stand-up.
What made Cruz so difficult to face in his prime were his unorthodox entrances, with him often throwing combinations while moving in angled strike and fade attacks. This plan spotlights key risks in backing Cruz for an upset. First, between injuries, layoffs and age, his tricky speed might be reduced, opening him up to take the worst of exchanges regardless of throwing more volume. Second, his opponent won't be worried about takedowns and so will be looking to time his attacks for a severe counter. Lastly, how will his chin hold up, given the damage he took in his fights against Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt?
Cejudo should be able to dictate the location of the fight, and if he headhunts early and often to cause some damage, he'll slow Cruz in later rounds -- if it gets that far.
E+ recommends: ML play on Cejudo.
Other fight card values
Of the biggest favorites on the card, several look like passes. That goes for Ryan Spann (-450) and Fabricio Werdum (-320), who bring clear advantages into the cage -- just not at current prices against two opponents who still have clear, albeit single, paths to victory.
Instead, consider Francis Ngannou (-280), who takes on the undefeated prospect Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+230). Yes, in a division defined by power, Rozenstruik is a beast, but so is Ngannou. These guys will definitely duke it out on the feet, and though Rozenstruik gets the accuracy edge, Ngannou is rangier and has better head-strike defense. Ngannou should get the better of the exchanges, and should this somehow go to the cards, I'd expect Ngannou to win more rounds.
E+ recommends: ML play on Ngannou.
Given all the uncertainties surrounding the logistics of putting on UFC 249, we might expect to see more volatility than usual in the performances of the fighters. Whether it's the limited training facility availability, the constantly changing scheduling interfering with timing peak performance or the increased stress of travel, testing, distancing and an empty arena, there are many reasons a fighter could have an off night. We'll be watching line movement to see if some stress-weathered underdog veterans begin to look like they could be worth a shot.
The mildest underdog on the card is Uriah Hall (+100), who takes on former Strikeforce champion Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (-130). Hall has youth and long-range striking on his side and needs to put both together to upset one of the most dangerous grapplers on the planet. Even on the wrong side of 40, Souza remains a threat with his ground game, but there are times when he just can't get the fight to the ground. Hall's takedown defense stands at 70%, even after his most recent fight, in which he was continuously pinned by a superior Brazilian grappler. However, Souza's takedown offense is at or below average, and Hall will be a constant counter threat if Souza presses too aggressively.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Hall at plus money.
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