Originally Posted by
str
Here is my take on race 8 gulf.
This race is a mess. Lol.
1. Scratched
2. Wants to be close but outrun vs. these. Can't find a reason on form to think it will improve.
3. Shows speed to be close but the previous races show a real tendency to hang. Blinkers on 2 back did not help the cause. Those were going an extra 1/8th of a mile so I see the theory of " it only wants to go a mile", but the horse would have to prove it does not hang before I could bet it. Of course hangers don't hang when they go wire to wire, but it looks like others will shoot to the front. With fractions being quicker than the longer distances in previous tries this time in all probability, looks like another hang job to me. Until proven otherwise, I don't bet hangers to win.
4. Decent efforts from this horse. Would not be surprised if it ran fine but an o'fer rider chases me away. With this race such a scramble, I can't do the o'fer stuff here.
5. Mott, 2nd time lasix, plenty to want to like but his last race was terrible. I will chase prices elsewhere.
6. Solid, honest and can easily win. But no price here in all probability so looking elsewhere. If I was playing exactas or tris, it would be hard to leave this one out. But with a race like this, I can only look for a bomb in the win spot.
7. Might run better than expected at a 20-1 morning line. Without knowing the actual odds and needing to post this now, I'll pass. If I was playing the card though, I would be watching this horse for possible value at very high odds.
8. Pletcher firster and the board usually does the talking with Todd. I'll pass not knowing anything right now. Wins by 5, not surprised. Off the board, not surprised either. Pass.
9. Maker is very solid and he runs this horse back in 9 days. He entered the horse 6 days after it's 1st race and goes blks. ON. That means the horse had to go to the gate and break before he could enter. Trainers don't often break horses at the gate 4-5 days after they just ran their 1st lifetime race. Only one reason a trainer does that. He's pissed at the last effort. Horse came out of the race fine I'm sure or he would not have been able to do that and it had to have worked an 1/8th before they could pull it back to a gallop. Like I said, the trainer is obviously upset with the lack of effort the horse showed in its first start. The same rider stays on which is a positive. This horse will either wildly improve or he's a bum. At 20-1 or more type odds, I'd use this one for sure. I like pissed off trainers.
10. Another blks. on horse and it's last and only race was even and all over the place. On paper, a perfect candidate for blks. Don't like the 1-48 jock record but that rider is not nearly as bad as those current stats. Should also be 12-1 or so, and would use this one also if I was playing exotics.
11. Clement is so darn good with horses like this. It's real tough to toss this horse because of the trainer. Things to like and probably bet to 6-1 or so, I guess, so use the horse on exotics, sure. But it's horses like this one and about 5 others that make this race the mess I talked about at the top.
12. Probably flash to the lead from the 12 post but it backed up against much lesser and I cannot find a reason to think anything different will happen today.
Hope that helps somebody.
Good luck if you play.