Golf's unofficial fifth major -- The Players Championship -- begins Thursday at the historic TPC Sawgrass course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
Our experts -- ESPN's Anita Marks and Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Stats & Info's David Gordon and deputy editor David Bearman -- are here to give their best futures bets for the tournament.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday night. Odds to win title
Bearman: I very rarely go with a favorite in golf, as there is way too much value in a field of 144 golfers. However, the world's No. 1 player not only is the defending champ but also has three other top-10s here since 2013. Just as important is his current form. His 2019-20 season consists of the following finishes: T2, T3, win, T3, T5, fifth, T5. Rory leads the PGA Tour in scoring and par-5 scoring, is T2 in bogey avoidance and is second in driving distance. He's hot at the right time.
Gordon: Last year's 54-hole leader enters on a blistering streak of 11 straight top-20s, including eight top-10s dating to last year's U.S. Open. His form rivals Rory's, and Rahm was one of just two players to break 65 at any point in the tournament last year.
The Bear: DeChambeau's added distance off the tee is a big reason that he has posted three straight top-5 finishes this year. He's also fourth in strokes gained: total, in addition to leading the tour in driving distance. In two trips to Sawgrass, he has finished 20th and 37th, and I anticipate further improvement this year, as DeChambeau's career arc is pointing toward his winning an event of this magnitude.
The Bear: Cantlay hasn't played since Riviera but also hasn't finished outside the top 20 since September. Although he missed the cut last year at Sawgrass, he has two top-25 finishes here, in 2017 and 2018, when he wasn't the player he is now. If he continues to hit greens the way he has recently, he'll have a real shot this week.
Bearman: Fleetwood was the 18- and 36-hole leader last year and was right there for the trophy until a final-round 73. He is T5, T7 the past two years at Sawgrass (Jason Day is the only other player with top-10s the past two years) with five rounds in the 60s. Fleetwood's form was good heading into Arnie's event, as he had a T18 in Mexico and a third-place finish at The Honda. Here's hoping his 76-76 at Bay Hill was just due to the conditions that crushed many golfers this past week.
The Bear: A very solid choice to post a top-10 or top-20 finish, as the 2018 Players champion has a pair of T16 finishes sandwiched around that. Simpson is seventh on tour in greens in regulation (GIR) and leads in birdie average. That's a pretty good recipe for success here.
Marks: Off to a hot start this season with five top-10 finishes, Simpson won here in 2018 and tied for 16th last year. His iron play is excellent, his putting is bar none, and he is one of the best on tour in GIR and scrambling. Simpson checks all the boxes.
Gordon: Johnson has shot under par in eight of his past nine rounds at TPC Sawgrass, posting even par in the other round. These odds are too high for the only player to shoot four rounds in the 60s last year. This will be his 19th start since his most recent PGA Tour victory. The last time he reached a longer drought, he won the U.S. Open and WGC-Bridgestone in back-to-back weeks (2016).
Gordon: Schauffele had one bad day in five career rounds here (Round 2 last year), which prevented a good chance for a second top-10 in as many appearances. He has played sneaky well the past two months, posting five top-25 finishes in six starts (including a runner-up). Schauffele has no top-10s in any of his past five starts, however, which is why he isn't in the 20-1 range. But he's ranked ninth in strokes gained: tee to green this season and is ready to contend.
Long shots (50-1 or longer)
Day (60-1)
The Bear: Obviously, his back is a big concern, but if it's OK, you're getting a former champion who has posted top-10 finishes here each of the past two years. It's a risk I'm willing to take at those odds.
The Bear: You never know when this guy will pop at a price, so why not? He was second here in 2017 and does have a T5 in Abu Dhabi this year. Fewer things in golf are prettier to watch than his swing when he's locked in.
Bearman: Looking for a long shot with success at TPC Sawgrass? No part of me likes picking Sergio in any event, and he is maddening to watch, but you can't argue with how he has played the course. His win in 2008 and runner-up in 2007 are ancient history, but he also led going into the final round in 2013 and finished top-3 in 2014 and 2015, losing in a playoff to Rickie Fowler five years ago. His recent form isn't great, so he is just as likely to miss the cut as he is to win, but at 70-1, it could be worth a shot.
The Bear: Homa has ripped off five straight top-25 finishes with three top-10s in that stretch. It's his first Players, so although a win is unlikely, given his approach struggles, he could be a nice top-10/20 candidate if he makes putts, which he can do (37th on tour in shots gained: putting). Props
Bearman: I absolutely think Leishman, the runner-up last week at Bay Hill, can win this week. He's fifth on tour in shots gained: approach the green, which is very important with the fast greens at Sawgrass. His track record is not great on this course (only one top-10), so the safer play is a top-5 finish at 10-1. He already has three top-5s this season, including a win at Torrey Pines, and it worked great for me last week at Bay Hill (+850 payout for second-place finish).
Rahm (3-1 at FanDuel)
Marks: One of the best in par-5 scoring and is familiar with overseeded rye grass.
McIlroy (2-1 at DraftKings)
Marks:Tiger Woods is the only two-time winner at The Players in the past 20 years, and no one has ever won back-to-back. McIlroy is having issues closing out events, but he has finished in the top five in every event he has played this season.
Top-10 finish
Fleetwood (3-1 DraftKings)
Marks: Fleetwood missed the cut at Bay Hill, so he has had more time to practice at Sawgrass, where he has had past success.
Marks: Scott won here is 2004 and is sporting four straight top-12 finishes on Tour. You can also get Scott as the top UNLV finisher for -137 at DraftKings in one of the more unique props.
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Best value bets for The Players Championship ⛳
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