Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide: Best Bets On Game & Props 🏈
Super Bowl LIV betting guide: Best bets on game and props
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Super Bowl LIV is upon us. The Chiefs and 49ers are the last teams standing, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and ESPN fantasy football writer Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like for the biggest betting day of the year.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Tuesday; picks on lines available at time of posting. Super Bowl LIV best bets
Fortenbaugh: I believe there are two key factors as to why the wrong team is favored in this matchup, and they both find their roots in the cognitive bias known as recency bias. The Chiefs hung a combined 86 points in spectacular fashion on the Texans and Titans this postseason, leading many to fawn over the unstoppable nature of this high-powered offense. However, both of those contests took place at Arrowhead Stadium against organizations that boast two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (Houston, 29th; Tennessee, 24th). For comparison's sake, San Francisco finished the regular season ranked first in the NFL in pass defense (169.2 yards per game) and tied for fifth in sacks (48). Kansas City's offense won't have nearly the same level of success in the Super Bowl as it had in its two previous playoff matchups.
In regard to the 49ers, how many outsiders and members of the general public are likely to get excited about a quarterback who threw the ball a combined total of just 27 times in two playoff games? Jimmy Garoppolo, with just 28 career starts to his name, still generates a sense of unease among those who have paid just casual attention to what transpired in the Bay Area this past season. That's a big mistake. Look at what Garoppolo produced during a three-week stretch of marquee showdowns vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore in the rain and at New Orleans in the dome and tell me the guy can't get it done on a neutral field against this Chiefs defense.
Speaking of that KC defense, pay close attention to the three Chiefs losses this season that came with Patrick Mahomes under center and you'll notice Kansas City was gashed on the ground:
• Week 5 vs. Indianapolis: 45 carries for 180 yards
• Week 6 vs. Houston: 41 carries for 192 yards
• Week 10 at Tennessee: 26 carries for 225 yards
The Niners concluded the regular season ranked second in the NFL in rushing and through two playoff games have pounded the rock 89 times for 471 yards and six touchdowns.
Pick: 49ers +1
Bearman: A unique matchup of the AFC's top passing offense and the NFC's top rushing offense. If the Niners can continue to play ball control and keep the high-flying KC offense off the field, they can win this. But they will have to stop the Chiefs' offense when it is on the field. Not many teams have been able to do that, and I don't see it happening here, either. KC got off to a slow start in each of its past three games and still averaged 39 points per game. The Chiefs haven't been held to fewer than 23 points since a Week 5 loss to the Colts.
Both teams have an extra week to prepare, which gives the advantage to Andy Reid, who is now 19-9 ATS and 23-5 outright off a bye week in his career, including the playoffs. KC has won and covered eight straight, the longest cover streak entering Super Bowl since the '85 Pats (who did it 14 straight times before the Super Bowl that season). In the eight, KC was favored seven times and covered by an average of seven points per game. As Joe noted, the Chiefs haven't faced a pass defense as good as the Niners, but they won't need 39 to win.
Pick: Chiefs -1
Youmans: I have a love-hate relationship with this Super Bowl pick. Everybody loves Mahomes, and I hate to bet against him. Mahomes is the best football player on the planet, the new face of the NFL, and it seems to be his time to take over for Tom Brady. But several great quarterbacks have been Super Bowl losers. Brady lost three times in this game, twice to Eli Manning. The Giants' two upsets of the Patriots -- by scores of 21-17 and 17-14 -- were more about the dominance of New York's defensive front, which leads me to the San Francisco side by a narrow margin.
This is about old-school handicapping. The 49ers have the stronger defense and running attack, the two most important elements to beating a Mahomes-led team. By running the ball and controlling the clock, the 49ers can keep Mahomes on the sideline and out of rhythm. San Francisco has one of the few defenses that can rush four and pressure Mahomes. I also give an edge to Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff. Again, I hate to bet against Mahomes, who gets the QB edge by a wide margin, so I'll say this is a play on the 49ers as the more complete team. I don't love this bet, but it seems to make slightly more football sense.
Pick: 49ers +1
Youmans: In the first few days after oddsmakers opened this total at 51.5, wagers on the over rolled in at about a 20-to-1 ratio at most Las Vegas books. I put more trust in the oddsmakers than in knee-jerk reactions by bettors. If I'm right about the 49ers' running attack and defense controlling the tempo of the game, the score should stay under the total.
Maybe I'm wrong and Mahomes lights up the scoreboard. But this game is not in Kansas City. The Chiefs scored 26, 23 and 24 points in their past three road games against comparable defenses (Bears, Patriots, Chargers). My score projection is San Francisco 27-24. The number is the key to my play. I am not betting this under 54.5, which is where the Caesars number has moved. The total is expected to rise to 55.5 or maybe even 56 by the weekend, when I will make the bet. A 31-24 score still keeps it under. (I'll also make a small play on the index prop of the total landing from 50 to 56 points at 4-1 odds.) The total closed 56 last year in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl (13-3) in history.
Pick: Under 54.5 (wait for 55 or better)
Kezirian: I cannot remember a Super Bowl pick of mine with less conviction. I see this as a total coin flip. As a fan, I am thrilled to watch this compelling and fun matchup. However, as a bettor who targets advantages or edges, I can see this game unfolding a variety of ways.
Mahomes is an incredible talent, and it's tough to fade him. However, the 49ers have the defense required to limit him. They can pressure the quarterback without blitzing, and the secondary should be able to limit the weapons.
As for the 49ers' offense, I think Garoppolo has fielded too much criticism. Kyle Shanahan did not ask him to throw much in the two previous playoff games because the Niners had such comfortable leads. It would have been foolish to risk it with reckless throws, considering Minnesota and Green Bay could not stop the rushing attack. My gut tells me the Niners will need to throw, and I have confidence in a guy who racked up 349 passing yards in New Orleans during the regular season. When needed to, Garoppolo has delivered.
Pick: 49ers +1 Prop bets
49ers to score first (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Kansas City's first-quarter playoff woes against Houston (21-0 deficit) and Tennessee (10-7) weren't an anomaly. The Chiefs finished the 2019 regular season ranked 28th in first-quarter scoring defense while allowing their opponents to score first in 10 of 16 matchups. The 49ers, meanwhile, found themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum, thanks to a regular season in which the NFC champs ranked third in the NFL in first-quarter scoring. Overall, San Francisco has scored first in 12 of 18 contests.
Remember, Shanahan is the absolute best in the business at scripting the first 15 plays of the game, and San Francisco also boasts the good fortune of having the NFL's second-best defense, so we've got some insurance in the event Kansas City gets the ball first.
Youmans: For whatever reasons, the Chiefs are the horse that gets a slow break out of the gate but comes on strong in the stretch run. There never is any panic from Mahomes, who's confident in his comeback ability. Kansas City trailed 10-0, 24-0 and 14-0 in its past three playoff games.
Shanahan's playcalling script has led to the 49ers' being fast starters. San Francisco scored first in 67% of its games (12 of 18), which is enough to make this play at -110, and it's a better bet when considering the Chiefs' troubling trend of slow starts.
Defense to record first sack: 49ers (+135)
Youmans: Mahomes attempted 35 passes in each of the two playoff games and was sacked a total of two times. That low sack rate creates some value in this prop price, which should be closer to pick 'em. The San Francisco defensive front will put pressure on Mahomes, who should have more pass attempts than Garoppolo early in the game if the 49ers are busy running the ball in the first half, as expected.
The 49ers have a 40% pressure percentage and a 17.3% sack rate when both Dee Ford and Nick Bosa are on the field. San Francisco's speed on defense is greater than what Mahomes faced against Tennessee and Houston. Mahomes likes to scramble and rarely gives up on a play, but he can sometimes scramble his way into a sack.
Mahomes over 29.5 rush yards
Bearman: This play is part recency bias because of Mahomes' past two games (53 rushing yards in each), but also part of finding the only weakness in the 49ers' defense -- stopping a mobile QB. Russell Wilson had 53 and 29 rush yards in two games against the 49ers; Kyler Murray had 34 and 66; Lamar Jackson had 101. All those would get you around or way over the total.
Youmans: The Chiefs have no stud running back to carry the load, so it's mostly on Mahomes to make plays. His spectacular, 27-yard touchdown run in the AFC title game showed his ability to break a big run at any time. I agree with the move up after Caesars opened this prop at 27.5.
Chiefs -10.5 (+310), Chiefs by 7-12 (4-1) and Niners by 1-6 (4-1)
Bearman: Chances are if you are wrong about your game pick, you'll miss most of your props, too, as you read the game flow wrong. The great thing about Super Bowl props is that you can attempt to play both sides. I predict a 31-20 Chiefs win, so I'll play Chiefs -10.5 at a +310 price and Chiefs to win by 7-12 at 4-1. But if I'm wrong about KC, then I predict it'll be a close loss. The Chiefs haven't lost a game by more than seven points in Mahomes' two years as a starter, so I'll also play Niners to win by 1-6 at 4-1 odds. If the Niners win in a blowout, well, like I said in the first sentence: If you're wrong, you'll miss your props, too.
Game will be decided by exactly 3 points (+375)
Youmans: Sometimes you just want to take a shot on a plus-price prop for entertainment. I project a 27-24 final, so I'll take the shot. The price is fair considering four of the past 16 Super Bowls were decided by a field goal. It has not happened since Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 seven years ago. In what is basically a pick 'em game, this prop has got a decent shot to hit.
Mahomes under 299.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Despite all the attention given to the high-powered KC offense, Mahomes has hit only 300 three times in the past 11 games. He's also facing a Niners defense that was first in the NFL in pass yards allowed (169.2) and pass yards per play (5.2). The over is a popular public play, but I have it coming in at 289, so I think this number is likely higher than it should be.
Mahomes over 299.5 pass yards
Johnson: I'm sure I will be on the side of 95% of the world with this one, but the Mahomes-passing-yards prop should start with a three, not a two. My projection is 336.9, and although the 49ers defense has been phenomenal against the pass this season, I think the particular matchup bodes well for the Chiefs.
Mahomes led the NFL in QBR when facing zone defenses, and the 49ers played zone against opposing quarterback dropbacks 64.2% of the time (the second-highest frequency in the NFL). The San Francisco pass rush with Ford and Bosa is always a concern, but Mahomes has the mobility and pocket presence to extend plays. We all saw what Aaron Rodgers was able to do completing passes down field when he generated extra time in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. We'd be foolish to believe Mahomes won't be able to do it, too.
Johnson: In a similar vein, if I project Mahomes' passing yards to be 37 yards higher than the market, it means I will likely show value on one of his receivers. In this case, it's Hill at 70.5 and Watkins at 46.5 receiving yards. My projections are 91.5 for Hill and 53.1 for Watkins. They combined for 17 targets in the AFC Championship Game, and I anticipate more of the same opportunity for each in the Super Bowl.
Garoppolo over 18.5 completions (-110) and over 28.5 pass attempts (-110)
Clay: Jimmy G has combined for 17 completions on 27 attempts in two postseason games while the Niners have used a ball-control, run-based offense. But that also came in two mostly noncompetitive games. During the regular season, Garoppolo averaged 29.5 attempts and 20.6 completions a game. Both of those would hit the over in what is expected to be a competitive game or even one in which SF has to match KC's quick-strike offense. I have Jimmy G. completing on average 21.5 passes on 31.5 attempts. Take the over on both props.
Chiefs punt first (+100)
Johnson: Caesars has a prop, "Which happens first for Chiefs?" Score is priced at -120, and punt is priced +100. My initial thought was the fact that it has taken the Chiefs and Mahomes some time in their first two playoff games to figure out the opposing defense. They opened the game with a punt in each. Then I started to consider that the 49ers defense is arguably the best they've faced this season, and that the two-week layoff might even come into play to some degree early on.
Looking back on the play-by-play data we have since 2002, there have been 34 opening drives and 18 punts to go along with five non-scoring drives (two safeties and three interceptions). This season, only six teams scored on their opening drives against the 49ers. The first quarter total is lined only 10 for a reason. I was shocked to see plus-money on the punt side for Kansas City in this prop, and while I generally like the Chiefs for the game and think they match up fairly well, this is still mispriced.
Kezirian: The weakness of Kansas City's defense is the linebacker position. Shanahan is a wizard with his playcalling, and this is something he likely will exploit. In higher-scoring games in which Garoppolo has needed to throw, Kyle Juszczyk has seen sufficient targets. He registered double-digit receiving yards in three of the final four regular-season games. The playoffs just became a rushing clinic, so it's hard to analyze any passing or receiving stats.
Kezirian: My colleague Bill Barnwell grabbed this at 200-1 odds. I agree with his thinking, and it's still worth a flyer at 50-1. Tevin Coleman is hurt. Kyle Shanahan often sticks with what's working, so if Breida starts off strong, there's no guarantee Raheem Mostert will be the featured running back. Mostert is currently +650 to win the MVP, so I think Breida and his electric speed warrants a long-shot play.
No Kansas City rushing TD (+220)
Kezirian: Kansas City has Mahomes. The Niners have an excellent defensive line. That's the analysis in the simplest form. The +220 translates to a 31% chance. San Francisco allowed only 11 rushing TDs in the regular season, but the defense battled numerous injuries. At full strength, this is a fierce unit. I think Andy Reid knows where his bread is buttered, and that's with Mahomes and the passing game.
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Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide: Best Bets On Game & Props 🏈
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