NFL divisional round early betting look: 49ers at discounted price?

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The first week of postseason NFL action saw three road teams come away with wins. What's in store for next weekend? Here's an early look at where the betting value lies in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

First and foremost, that Mike Zimmer defensive game plan in New Orleans -- and the players' execution -- was about as good as I have seen since the Titans held Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to 13 points on Saturday. Drew Brees had led the Saints to 36.6 points per game since they fell 26-9 to the Falcons at home on Nov. 10. Besides Taysom Hill's pass for 50 yards that led to a Saints touchdown and his 50 yards on the ground, New Orleans managed only 208 yards through the air from Brees and 42 yards on the ground combined from Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. A Minnesota fumble on the opening drive gifted the Saints three of their 20 points as well. The Vikings' effort gets a round of applause from me.



What can we take to the divisional-round matchup against the 49ers? We never want to overreact to one game or one result, but market reaction is inevitable. That's what I think is going on here with the current point spread sitting at -6.5. Remember in Week 14 when San Francisco traveled to New Orleans and won a thriller 48-46? The no-vig closing line (the amount of juice a book makes when holding an equal amount of bets on both sides) in that game was roughly 49ers +114, or an implied win probability of 47%. The closing point spread was +1. The market deemed San Francisco the better team on a neutral field before the game played out. The Vikings closed +7 earlier Sunday in New Orleans against the Saints after Sunday morning money pushed the number down, but if the 49ers are perceived to be superior to the Saints, why is the divisional-round number against the Vikings only -6.5? San Francisco even had a bye week to rest, which benefits the Niners and the recent injury bug that hit their defense.


Betting analysis: I had the Saints rated better than the 49ers entering the playoffs, but it wasn't by much. The -6.5s are a tad discounted on the 49ers side, and if you want to back Minnesota, I wouldn't rush to the window. I anticipate +7s will show at some point during the week.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 48)

I wasn't surprised to see Baltimore get bet into immediately after opening -8.5, despite my projection lining up (-8.7). I think the majority of the sentiment surrounding the Titans' 20-13 win over the Patriots is how poorly New England played, not necessarily giving much credit to Tennessee. As anti-Titans as I have been down the stretch this season, I can't envision this blasting through +10 to +10.5.


Betting analysis: If you like the Tennessee side, I'd take the double digits now. If you're Team Lamar, I anticipate -9.5s and -9s to be available to you at some point this week. I'm leaving this one alone.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 49.5)

The spread in this matchup has been bouncing around -8.5 to -9.5 since opening on Saturday. This isn't too significant of a difference if you're betting the game straight, but if you're eyeing a potential six-point teaser leg on the Kansas City side under a field goal, then moves to -8.5 are worth keeping an eye on. My projection is only -7.1, but I have been a little more bullish on the Texans relative to the market in recent weeks. If this line were to move up to +10 on the Houston side, that's a buy for me.


What interests me more in this game in the current market is the total. My projection is 50.3, but that takes the entirety of the teams' season data into account. The Chiefs' defense played phenomenally in the final six games, allowing 11.5 points per game (23.9 per game allowed in the 10 games prior). This is a defense that ranked 27th overall and 30th against the run six weeks into the season. Teams were running all over Kansas City, to the tune of 148.1 yards per game. In this six-game stretch, however, the Chiefs have given up 95 yards per game on the ground.


On the other side of the ball, J.J. Watt's return for the Texans proved effective. Not only had their run defense suffered since his injury in Week 9, but their pass rush win rate also dropped from 45% with Watt on the field to 27% with him off (league average is 42%).


Betting analysis: If I were to parse out the games in which Watt played for Houston and the team's defensive outputs from solely those games and combine them with the Kansas City defense from the final six weeks of the season, my new projection would be 46.6. At 49.5, I have some interest in the under, but I have to give some credence to the season-long data. I'm hoping this keeps getting pushed up (opened 48.5), and at 51, I will be a buyer.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 46)

It's difficult to take much from the Seahawks' 17-9 win over the Josh McCown-led Eagles. If anything, the fact that they rushed the ball 17 times with Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch for a total of 19 yards is frustrating. Running the ball has been the Seattle way for two seasons now. However, despite rostering likely NFL MVP runner-up Russell Wilson under center, Seattle was third in the NFL in passing success rate this season. The injuries in the backfield certainly haven't helped, but it's time to let Wilson loose.


Unfortunately, Seattle and Green Bay are both teams that I wish I could bet against this week in the divisional round. Neither team is nearly as strong as its record indicates, and though I could dig into all of the luck-adjusted metrics that point against these teams, that's a moot point since they face each other.


Betting analysis: Considering the bye week for the Packers and home field in the matchup, -3.5 is pretty close to where my numbers have it. It's worth noting that while Caesars is still sitting -3.5, the majority of the market instantly moved to -4. I likely won't be getting involved either way and will be rooting on our +1000 Green Bay NFC future from the early betting look column in Week 2.