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So last installment of our discussion threads on college fb for the year. Was meaning to do this over the weekend but better late than never (still lots of time to discuss). As tradition I’ll start with one my favorites and then we will go from there.
Play #1
VaTech -2.5
Prob no surprise as I have talked this team up and bet them quite a bit down the stretch. Throw out any numbers on Hokies before the duke game imo as they were a completely different team after changing QBs, only loss with hooker at qb came the last game against uva in a game that coulda went either way. They lost by 1 vs ND but hooker didn’t play that game. I think what should be taken away from the uva loss was early on uva mobile qb hurt them w his legs but then Hokies put a stop to that and uva beat them by going to the air. I think that relevant here cause uk starts a wr at qb that really is no threat to throw! Hokies run defense only allows 3.8 yards per carry and I just can’t see bud foster in his final game not having a plan to stop a team who basically has no passing threat!
On the other side Hokies rushing attack was much improved after the switch at qb. Only very good rush defenses held them down after the switch. Uk ranks 100th in the nation allowing 4.9 per rush. Unlike uk qb the Hokies mobile qb can also beat you thru the air which makes the run much tougher to defend.
Hokies hold a huge advantage in the red zone. Both red zone defenses are strong but Hokies 6th in nation while uk is 24th. On the offensive side where the big advantage comes in. Vatech scores tds in over 93% their trips into the red zone this season ranking 12th in the country while uk only punches in 78% their trips into scoring range ranking 98th in the nation. In a game I don’t expect many big plays for scores how efficient teams are when they get inside the 20 is gonna be the difference.
This line be fair if you look at the entire season but I think that be foolish to not weight how these teams played the last month or so and in doing that I think this line is pretty short. Imo Hokies a good 6 points the better team maybe even 7 if you consider how much stronger they been away from home compared to uk. Give me vatech to cover the small number.
I have a few more and a total i already played but not ready to write about them so we will just start here to get the ball rolling.
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Originally Posted by Al Masters
