And its not the Prick (he is a much better 3-9)
i mean this guy is consistently losing every week
i mean this guy is consistently losing every week
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I think if you give every game a 50/50 shot the odds would be 4096-1. I hope that he/she is not betting real money on the games.Comment -
I am bringing up the rear at 565 and needless to say don't bet money on my picks.Comment -
i'm not sure what the odds would be for someone to go 0- for whatever for a season, but what Rollins said sounds about right. for someone to go 0-12, he/she must not know anything about sports, or they're a fan of some crappy teams and keep picking them. me personally, i tried some goofy strategy the last 2 weeks, i tried to pick games hardly anyone was playing, and it hurt me. now i'm just going to go back and play what i'm personally putting money on.Comment -
Given the number of contestants, it's not that unlikely that somebody goes 0-12.Comment -
I agree the numbers are ugly, but 12-0 doesn't prove heaps more than 0-12 does. To me both records indicate a dosage of very good/bad luck being sprinkled around. If you haven't gone through stretches where you couldn't win a game you haven't been doing it long enough.Comment -
you can keep picking all the "crappy" teams in the world, and know absolutely nothing about sports, and the expectation would still be to hit 50% winners on spread bets/totals.Comment -
Assuming no correlation between a player's bets amd meglecting pushes, the probability of any given poster going 0-12 would be 2<sup>-12</sup> ≈ 0.02441%.
With 399 players having competed in all 3 weeks, and making the (completely inaccurate) assumption of no cross-correlation between players, the probability of at least 1 player going 0-12 would be 1-(1-0.02441%)<sup>399</sup> ≈ 9.283%.Comment -
Mr Ganchrow not to go to far off the subject but is that the same calculation one would use to state that the probability of having at least one 12 wager losing streak over a sample of 399 wagers (for a 50/50 prob. event) is about 9.2%?Comment -
whatever that guys plays this week iam going to bet them all! no way this guy can miss 4 more this week!Comment -
No, it's actually slightly more complex than that.
Wagers 1-11:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at any of wager #'s 1-11 is obviously zero.
Wager 12:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at wager # 12 is 2-12 = 1/4,096.
Wagers 13-23:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at any of wager #'s 13-23 is 9 is 2-13 = 1/8,192. (We know that the last 13 wagers of the sequence would have to be 1 win followed by 12 losses -- the previous wagers would be irrelevant).
Wager 24:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at wager# 24 is 2-13 * (1 - Pr(12 in a row by game 12)) = 1/8,192 * (1-1/4,096). (We know that the last 13 wagers of the sequence would have to have been 1 win followed by 12 losses. The previous 11 wagers before that would be irrelevant).
Wager 25:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at wager 25 is 2-13 * (1 - Pr(12 in a row by game 13)) = 1/8,192 * (1-1/8,192). (We know that the last 13 wagers of the sequence would have to have been 1 win followed by 12 losses. The previous 12 wagers before that must NOT have contained a 12 consecutive wager loss.)
Wager m ≥ 24:
The probability of the 12th consecutive loss first occurring at wager m (m ≥ 24) is 2-13 * (1 - Pr(12 in a row by game m - 12)) = (1 - Pr(12 in a row by game m - 12))/8,192 . (We know that the last 13 games of the sequence would have to have been 1 win followed by 12 losses. The previous (m - 13) games before that must NOT have contained a 12 consecutive game loss.
So for 399 wagers we just take the summation of the first 399 terms (388 not counting the first 11 zero terms).
So assuming my math is correct, this gives us a probability of 4.644% of "achieving" a 12 or greater game loss (or win) streak over 399 wagers.
<hr>
In general, the probability of at least one stretch of at least L consecutive losses of a wager (that loses with probability q and wins with probability 1-q), over n trials is given (recursively) by:
Pr(L; n) = Pr(at least L Losses over n trials)
= 0 if n < L
= qL if n = L
= Pr(L; n-1) + qL×(1-q)×(1-Pr(L; n-L)) if n > L and L≠1
= Pr(L; n-1) + qL×(1-Pr(L; n-L)) if n > L and L=1Comment -
Wow thanks, great answer, I had a feeling 9.2% was too high. I am copying that final equation which I will probably make use of sometime. Much appreciated.Comment -
Ganchrow you are a god!!!
thx a lotComment -
Just for "fun", here's a a simple HTML form that performs these streak likelihood calculations.
<script src=http://bettingtools.sbrforum.com/newcalc/js/streak.js> </script>
<form> <table cellspacing=1 cellpadding=2 style="border-style: outset; border-width: 2px;"> <tr> <td colspan=4> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Series Length:</td> <td> <input type=text id=txtSeries size=8 onChange="this.value=addCommas(this.valu e);" value=399> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Streak Length:</td> <td> <input type=text id=txtStreak size=8 value=12> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Loss Probability:</td> <td> <input type=text id=txtLossP size=8 onChange="this.value=fmtPercent(this.val ue);" value=50.000%> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan=4> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Streak Probability:</td> <td> <span id=spnAnswer size=8> </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan=4 align=center> <input type=button value=Calculate onClick=" this.blur(); $('spnAnswer').innerHTML=calcStreakProb( $('txtSeries').value, $('txtStreak').value, $('txtLossP').value); $('spnSummary').innerHTML = 'Given a series of ' + $('txtSeries').value + ' bets, each bet losing with probability ' + $('txtLossP').value + ', there is a ' + $('spnAnswer').innerHTML + ' likelihood of at some point losing at least ' + $('txtStreak').value + ' bets in a row.'; "> <tr> <td colspan=2> </td> </tr> </table> </form>
<span id=spnSummary style="font-style: italic; ffont-size: 9px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span>Comment -
getting crazy with the numbers, just glad i'm not 0-12. Not much better.Comment -
I need to go back to college. I don't understand any of that.Comment -
Ganch thanks for the calculator, it's a lazy man's dream!
Just one more thing. Is there anyway to save that individual post (Post #18 in this thread)? If I want to access that calculator 3 months from now do I have to do a search, or is there someway I can store it in my CP area. I tried clicking that permalink, but nothing seemed to happen.Comment -
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I don't know what the odds are but a guy in my office lost 20 consecutive bets in the NBA. What are the odds of losing 20 straight bets?Comment -
I can attest to this as being fact as it was published in the Las Vegas Review Journal and on a couple of sport internet sites.
In 2002 I was hitting just short of 62% on my NBA selections half way through the season, so I do know what I'm doing handicapping NBA, or so I thought. I commenced to go on a 0-23 streak over the next week. This is documented as I had a daily radio show in Las Vegas at the time and many people were aware of my picks on daily basis.
I professor from UNLV calculated the odds on my being a 60% handicapper and then going 0-23. The odds came out to well over 3,000,000 to 1. What wasn't taken into consideration was the fact that of those 23 picks I was on the favorite side on 11 of them and all 11 lost "Straight up". Figure that one out.Comment -
I saw the streak calculator is linked in the Tools section, woo hoo!
Just one snag though, when I press the link, I get sent to the main sbrforum.com page (I am able to get to the other calculators). When I right clicked the link and checked out "properties", this was the address listed:
but that's not where I was sent to.
FYI.Comment -
Should be working now.I saw the streak calculator is linked in the Tools section, woo hoo!
Just one snag though, when I press the link, I get sent to the main sbrforum.com page (I am able to get to the other calculators). When I right clicked the link and checked out "properties", this was the address listed:
but that's not where I was sent to.
FYI.
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