[stevenash]

First and foremost I'm fully aware that the two starting QB's in this shit fest are Trubisky and David Blough.

"THE David Blough Nasher" you say?
Yep, that's the one.
The regular back up Lion QB Driskel sucks so much he got his ass benched. (Don't believe the he's hurt stories)

I know two things about David Blough.
1) He's making his first ever NFL start today.
2) He was pretty much a back up QB at Purdue until his senior year and threw a lot of picks.

This is why I like the OVER 38.

1) The Lion defense is a mess. To be blunt, they suck.
The Lions defense is pretty much near rock bottom in every defensive category, they give up nearly 400 yards in offense a game.
They're especially bad at defending the pass. They give up 275 passing yards a game. Uh yeah, that kind of bad.

If there were ever a game for Trubisky (even for just one game) to make people forget about the fact he's this generations most underachieving QB this would be the game.

Trubisky has the pieces to put up 31 points here, on the road in a climate control stadium.
a) Allen Robinson is a solid WR1 that's wasting away in Chicago which is why he doesn't get much ink.
b) Chicago running back Tarik Cohen is one of the league's best RB when it comes to receptions out of the backfied,
Trubisky has targeted Cohen 70 times this year (about 6.5 looks a game) and is good for almost five receptions a game. The other back (Montgomery) may lead the team with carries and rushing yards, but as far as top RB's go in the league, he's not one of them

I figure on Trubisky to finally have one of those 3 TD's in the air games people are waiting for.
I'm also counting on at least 10 to 14 points scored or set up by the good Bears defense. Feeling here is the third team QB scrub (Blough) is good for three turnovers.

Bears win this 31-13

Over 38 for your pal Nasher please.

Not for nothing I'm 10-1 (it's all verifiable) in my last eleven plays so tail at your own risk, no human can sustain a 90 percent plus w/l record.

Happy Turkey Day All

[Otters27]

Got it at 37 good luck

[pilebuck13]

Chicago TT is 21

[The Expert]

From this write-up Bears seem to be a better bet than OVER as we don't need Lions to score then

[Richkas]

No value in the under...moved to much already..gl on your..you might cash but it will 4th quarter

[stevenash]

Chicago TT is 21

On that small and this one small.

Thu 11/28		5741 T.Cohen scores a receiving TD		+385
12:30PM		5742 T.Cohen no receiving TD scored		-585

[stevenash]

No value in the under...moved to much already..gl on your..you might cash but it will 4th quarter

Respectfully disagree but it's all good.
As a great mayor of a great city once said "if 100 percent of the people agreed with me 100 percent of the time I wouldn't be doing my job very well"

I think there's tons of value on the over.
Best of luck today and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

[jjgold]

always a tremendous write up

[ThaWoj]

Guess I'm the only douche on Lions

[stevenash]

Guess I'm the only douche on Lions

I wouldn't call you a douche but does one really know what you're going to get out of David Blough?

[Chi_archie]

good start

[ThaWoj]

I wouldn't call you a douche but does one really know what you're going to get out of David Blough?

I didn't even know he was starting when I made the bet. I assumed driskel. Also took them in beat the prick or whatever it's called at +3.5 jeopardizing my spot at #18 in the standings. Maybe this will be some kind of crazy shootout lol...

[stevenash]

always a tremendous write up

Thanks Coach.

[stevenash]

but does one really know what you're going to get out of David Blough?

One thing I wasn't expecting was Blough's very first NFL pass completion to be a 75 yard perfect TD throw.
Helps my cause though.

[ThaWoj]

Over is looking great and there is definitely hope for my Lions bet. I even have the ml too. I never thought this game could be a shootout but I'll take it so far

[The Expert]

Nasher, great job, already half of the points needed for Over scored. Do you have any leans for later Cowboys game? I am leanig them -6.5 as I think Bills are fluke, though would really like to know your opinion Pal.

[stevenash]

If you like the over now it's 52 (live in game)

5:00 left in the first quarter.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions - Live In Play wagering during every commercial break - Internet Only
Thu 11/28		9305 Chicago Bears	pk +115-2½ +115+5½ -205	+115	o52 -110o48½ -195o56½ +155	o26 -115	u26 -115
12:30PM		9306 Detroit Lions	pk -135+2½ -145-5½ +165	-135	u52 -110u48½ +160u56½ -185	o26 -115	u26 -115

[stevenash]

Nasher, great job, already half of the points needed for Over scored. Do you have any leans for later Cowboys game? I am leanig them -6.5 as I think Bills are fluke, though would really like to know your opinion Pal.

Thanks brother but there's still three quarters left to play here, I've seen plenty of games where there were 31 points scored in the first than 6 points scored in the second half. But still the over is off to a good start.

Regarding the upcoming Dallas game, funny you should ask.
I was just crunching some numbers on some of the individual prop wagers available.

This one I like.
I think the Cowboys curb stomp the Bills early making Allen have to go to the air more often then the Bills and their coaches want to.
Brown is their feature wide out and 62.5 is very obtainable.

Thu 11/28		6725 John Brown receiving yards			o62½ -110
4:30PM		6726 .			u62½ -130

Regarding the side and the total the feeling here is the frustrated Cowboys get their yaya's off today.
Look for a steady diet of Dak sticking the ball in Zeke's gut for most of the afternoon.
Dallas -6.5 or pass on the side.

I like the under 47 a tad more for a few reasons.
Both teams play good defense I expect some FG's made that usually result in TD's.
I think 'Zeke and to a lesser extent Pollard to get a lot of carries which chews up the clock.
Also the Cowboys (and Green Bay) use Randall Cobb in some end around WR rushes too.

Like the Cowboys, like the under 47 (which is a big number) better.

Lastly I don't think Buffalo is a fluke, Josh Brown is a talented receiver, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (as classier act you'll never find unless your name is Larry Fitzgerald) have a combined 1000 rushing yards combined, and even though the analytics say Josh Allen right now is a middle of the road, so-so QB they eye test says he's going to develop into a good NFL QB.

Bill Parcells used to say you are only as good as your won/loss record says.
The Bills are 8 and 3 albeit it a soft 8 and 3.
I wouldn't call them a fluke they have beaten the cupcakes so far they should have beat with the only real silly loss was to the Brownies 19-16 in Cleveland and I'm not sure you can call that silly. Buffalo kept New England (at home) within 6 points in that loss. The only game they were dominated in so far was that bitch slapping the Eagles handed them. On the other hand most NFL teams should beat the Dolphins, Jets, Giants. Bengals, Redskins, and Titans. But hey you have to play the games on your schedule.

Today Buffalo steps up in class.

Cowboys -6.5 for me (if I play it) small.
I am playing the under 47. Not big but for 2*

Best of luck.

[pimike]

Looking good

[ThaWoj]

Thanks brother but there's still three quarters left to play here, I've seen plenty of games where there were 31 points scored in the first than 6 points scored in the second half. But still the over is off to a good start.

Regarding the upcoming Dallas game, funny you should ask.
I was just crunching some numbers on some of the individual prop wagers available.

This one I like.
I think the Cowboys curb stomp the Bills early making Allen have to go to the air more often then the Bills and their coaches want to.
Brown is their feature wide out and 62.5 is very obtainable.

Thu 11/28		6725 John Brown receiving yards			o62½ -110
4:30PM		6726 .			u62½ -130

Regarding the side and the total the feeling here is the frustrated Cowboys get their yaya's off today.
Look for a steady diet of Dak sticking the ball in Zeke's gut for most of the afternoon.
Dallas -6.5 or pass on the side.

I like the under 47 a tad more for a few reasons.
Both teams play good defense I expect some FG's made that usually result in TD's.
I think 'Zeke and to a lesser extent Pollard to get a lot of carries which chews up the clock.
Also the Cowboys (and Green Bay) use Randall Cobb in some end around WR rushes too.

Like the Cowboys, like the under 47 (which is a big number) better.

Lastly I don't think Buffalo is a fluke, Josh Brown is a talented receiver, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (as classier act you'll never find unless your name is Larry Fitzgerald) have a combined 1000 rushing yards combined, and even though the analytics say Josh Allen right now is a middle of the road, so-so QB they eye test says he's going to develop into a good NFL QB.

Bill Parcells used to say you are only as good as your won/loss record says.
The Bills are 8 and 3 albeit it a soft 8 and 3.
I wouldn't call them a fluke they have beaten the cupcakes so far they should have beat with the only real silly loss was to the Brownies 19-16 in Cleveland and I'm not sure you can call that silly. Buffalo kept New England (at home) within 6 points in that loss. The only game they were dominated in so far was that bitch slapping the Eagles handed them. On the other hand most NFL teams should beat the Dolphins, Jets, Giants. Bengals, Redskins, and Titans. But hey you have to play the games on your schedule.

Today Buffalo steps up in class.

Cowboys -6.5 for me (if I play it) small.
I am playing the under 47. Not big but for 2*

Best of luck.

Anything with Cole Beasley and the revenge factor? I gotta think they have a few designed plays for him.

[stevenash]

Anything with Cole Beasley and the revenge factor? I gotta think they have a few designed plays for him.

Yeah, I think Beasley is in a good spot this afternoon.
I'm going to give the Beasley props a second look again now.

[The Expert]

Thanks brother but there's still three quarters left to play here, I've seen plenty of games where there were 31 points scored in the first than 6 points scored in the second half. But still the over is off to a good start.

Regarding the upcoming Dallas game, funny you should ask.
I was just crunching some numbers on some of the individual prop wagers available.

This one I like.
I think the Cowboys curb stomp the Bills early making Allen have to go to the air more often then the Bills and their coaches want to.
Brown is their feature wide out and 62.5 is very obtainable.

Thu 11/28		6725 John Brown receiving yards			o62½ -110
4:30PM		6726 .			u62½ -130

Regarding the side and the total the feeling here is the frustrated Cowboys get their yaya's off today.
Look for a steady diet of Dak sticking the ball in Zeke's gut for most of the afternoon.
Dallas -6.5 or pass on the side.

I like the under 47 a tad more for a few reasons.
Both teams play good defense I expect some FG's made that usually result in TD's.
I think 'Zeke and to a lesser extent Pollard to get a lot of carries which chews up the clock.
Also the Cowboys (and Green Bay) use Randall Cobb in some end around WR rushes too.

Like the Cowboys, like the under 47 (which is a big number) better.

Lastly I don't think Buffalo is a fluke, Josh Brown is a talented receiver, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (as classier act you'll never find unless your name is Larry Fitzgerald) have a combined 1000 rushing yards combined, and even though the analytics say Josh Allen right now is a middle of the road, so-so QB they eye test says he's going to develop into a good NFL QB.

Bill Parcells used to say you are only as good as your won/loss record says.
The Bills are 8 and 3 albeit it a soft 8 and 3.
I wouldn't call them a fluke they have beaten the cupcakes so far they should have beat with the only real silly loss was to the Brownies 19-16 in Cleveland and I'm not sure you can call that silly. Buffalo kept New England (at home) within 6 points in that loss. The only game they were dominated in so far was that bitch slapping the Eagles handed them. On the other hand most NFL teams should beat the Dolphins, Jets, Giants. Bengals, Redskins, and Titans. But hey you have to play the games on your schedule.

Today Buffalo steps up in class.

Cowboys -6.5 for me (if I play it) small.
I am playing the under 47. Not big but for 2*

Best of luck.

Thank you very much for your insight, you're one of the best cappers here, really. Going to bet 1 unit on both Cowboys and Under then, though don't like to bet total & side on the same game. Really appreciate your work here, s I'm European, I'm not an expert in US Sports, so love to read your posts. I can help in soccer and tennis from time to time

[stevenash]

Thank you very much for your insight, you're one of the best cappers here, really. Going to bet 1 unit on both Cowboys and Under then, though don't like to bet total & side on the same game. Really appreciate your work here, s I'm European, I'm not an expert in US Sports, so love to read your posts. I can help in soccer and tennis from time to time

You're welcome, it helps if one enjoys writing and analytics, and I do.
Glad to help.

No, I don't like betting sides and totals together in the same game as well, that's why I'm going with the total under here it's the play I'm confident in.

Best of luck.