1. 11-26-19 11:10 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    CFB Plays - Week 14

    TUESDAY, 11/26
    Western Michigan -8.5 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 50-57-1, -9.89
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  2. 11-28-19 04:42 PM #2
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    CFB Additions Friday & Saturday

    4 CFB Plays

    FRIDAY, 11/29
    Iowa -5.5 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 11/30
    Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
    Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 50-58-1, -10.94
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  3. 11-30-19 10:17 AM #3
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    5 CFB Additions Saturday

    8 CFB Plays

    SATURDAY, 11/30
    Indiana -6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
    Rice -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Southern Miss / FAU OVER 55.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Vanderbilt / Tennessee OVER 47.5 -105 (Heritage)
    California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
    Army +120 ML (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 50-59-1, -11.99
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  4. 11-30-19 10:23 AM #4
    RavensFan2k3
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    I do like Army
    Last edited by RavensFan2k3; 11-30-19 at 10:43 AM.
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  5. 11-30-19 10:26 AM #5
    ClippersSux
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    LT,
    I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.
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  6. 11-30-19 10:35 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClippersSux View Post
    LT,
    I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.
    Not with current sbrcontests platform no. There has been talk of upgrading the system though, but I am not privy to those conversations.
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  7. 11-30-19 10:45 AM #7
    flakeandbake
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    LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

    The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public
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  8. 11-30-19 12:36 PM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by flakeandbake View Post
    LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

    The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public
    What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.
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  9. 11-30-19 12:48 PM #9
    flakeandbake
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.
    What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.


    NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

    Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

    BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

    You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long
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  10. 11-30-19 12:49 PM #10
    flakeandbake
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    I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix
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  11. 11-30-19 01:05 PM #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by flakeandbake View Post
    What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.


    NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

    Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

    BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

    You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long
    NONE of this matters. I am not saying you can't go 4-0, but it would have nothing to do with ticket count.

    Also, in past years the models have often naturally put me on the unpopular sides like you are suggesting because that is where the value has historically been since books were able to shade the popular sides a tad. In other words, I did not seek out unpopular sides, I just ended up there naturally a lot.

    This year has been totally different as I have ended up on more favorites than ever before. One factor there is the public becoming more sophistcated, making it harder to shade lines. Thank God for NBA and NHL. lol
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  12. 11-30-19 01:11 PM #12
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by flakeandbake View Post
    What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.
    That was unnecessary.
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  13. 11-30-19 02:00 PM #13
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by flakeandbake View Post
    I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix
    Oh shit
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  14. 11-30-19 02:41 PM #14
    flakeandbake
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    That was unnecessary.
    No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it
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  15. 11-30-19 02:45 PM #15
    flakeandbake
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    it’s good to model quantitatively

    But ignoring the qualitative aspects
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  16. 11-30-19 03:18 PM #16
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by flakeandbake View Post
    No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it
    Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.
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  17. 11-30-19 06:05 PM #17
    flakeandbake
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.
    No one gives me credit on this forum. Regardless, you’re right I shouldn’t say that

    I apologize @ LT

    Would like to see you on all three
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