1. #1
    toddsclowns
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    Favorite point spreads to play/look for?

    I know with football the obvious are 2.5, 6.5, but any you look for in other sports? Iíve noticed for college b-ball, lot of 10-14 point dogs are covering early in the year, with more than a few of them winning outright at anywhere from +380 to +500. Just an early season anomaly as books look to tighten lines? Any you guys like to hone in on? Thanks!

  2. #2
    kidcudi92
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    Seems like a lot of short dogs...talking (+2.5/+3 area) in CBB either get blown out or win SU


    That doesn't say much but at least the games I have been betting, its my own trend haha

  3. #3
    pablo222
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    Good info fellas. I will keep an eye on those trends.

  4. #4
    2daBank
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    The ones that I feel have perceived value off my line. Doesnít much matter what the number is to me, just whether it differs from where I put the game.

  5. #5
    asiagambler
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    In NFL, I think there is increased value in taking the UNDERDOG at +2.5 and +6.5

    2 and 6 have become more common since they moved the extra point back

    Yet they still overcharge extra to buy to 3 or 7

    So I rarely find myself buying the hook now under these circumstances

  6. #6
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    In NFL, I think there is increased value in taking the UNDERDOG at +2.5 and +6.5

    2 and 6 have become more common since they moved the extra point back

    Yet they still overcharge extra to buy to 3 or 7

    So I rarely find myself buying the hook now under these circumstances
    I def think the idea of ďkeyĒ numbers has kinda gotten skewed this day and age. I donít know the numbers but sure seems like we get a lot more games decided by numbers that used to be considered dead.

  7. #7
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I def think the idea of “key” numbers has kinda gotten skewed this day and age. I don’t know the numbers but sure seems like we get a lot more games decided by numbers that used to be considered dead.
    And the kickers seem to getting worse and worse!

    Tampa bay kicker missed 3 extra points yesterday. Maddening for me because I bet over 52 but thankfully Calvin Ridley got me there with a great TD catch late

  8. #8
    toddsclowns
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    Great info guys, definitely appreciate it. Great insight Asia and Bank on the shift from perennial NFL “key numbers” with the extra point change, and now these escalating rule changes - wonder if/how they will continue to change the numbers landscape. Thanks Pablo and Cudi, I know what you mean though, it’s rarely ever a favorite wins by 1 or 2 in those situations. Where I’ve been finding real additional value on these types of lines is halftime bets. Obviously one game, but for example, Fordham was +10 for game, and down 15 at half. I really liked Fordham as a dog from a couple angles for game (play hard D, don’t foul a lot, play full game, plus West Kent has Louisville on deck), so down 15 at half, and then +2.5 2nd half, so essentially +17.5 for game, it let me just pull trigger without even thinking. They ended up down 3 with 20 seconds to go and almost tied the game. Again that’s one game, so doesn’t mean much, but just trying to outline my thinking as far as key numbers

  9. #9
    toddsclowns
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    3 10-14 spread so far tonight:

    Fordham +10 (lost by 6)
    Va Tech +13 (up 10 w/5 mins to go)
    Valpo +12 (up 4 at half)

    I’m sure this will revert to the mean at some point, but my OCD is trying to figure out the psychology behind it

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