Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the 12th full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records: Connelly: 22-11-2 (4-0 last week)
Steele: 24-34 (2-3 last week)
Johnson: 31-23-1 (2-2 last week)
Kezirian: 37-29-1 (2-3 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night. Saturday's games
Kezirian: This will not be a pretty game, but the point spread makes it interesting. Ohio State has covered every single first-half spread this season, and I think the streak will continue in Piscataway. There is zero inclination that the Buckeyes will show mercy. After all, they attempted -- and converted -- an onside kick last week while leading 14-0 over Maryland as 42.5-point favorites. On top of that, they just lost their top ranking. Why would they start taking it easy?
Plus, Rutgers is awful. The Scarlet Knights rank in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I think this is a rout early, and I doubt Rutgers will score in the first half. Obviously, it's a bit of a risk, but there is no reason to think Rutgers can do anything on offense against Ohio State's first team. If the Buckeyes suffer a surprise turnover, Rutgers has made only two of five field goal attempts of 30-plus yards this season.
Kezirian: This is a fantastic spot for the Cougars. Washington State returns home needing two wins for bowl eligibility, which means the Cougars have to beat both Stanford and Oregon State in Pullman before hitting the road for the Apple Cup. This could be a giant look-ahead spot for Stanford, with the Big Game against Cal looming next week. Wazzu's offense is solid, having scored 30-plus points against every opponent not named Utah or Cal (those defenses are the class of the conference). I expect the offense to be just fine against Stanford. The Cougars' defense is not that potent, but Stanford has issues offensively. The Cardinal mustered only 13 points at Colorado, which has arguably the conference's worst defense.
Kezirian: By now, you know the drill: I don't believe in Michigan State and have to continue fading the Spartans. Coming off a bye, Sparty had everything lined up last week but blew a fourth-quarter lead in a stunning loss to Illinois. I am obviously surprised the Spartans lost, but this squad is getting by on reputation. Now they must face a far superior team on the road. I realize clichés mandate one to throw out records in rivalry games, but I just do not see it. Michigan State has lost four straight because the Spartans are inept offensively and overrated defensively -- not because they aren't trying. They were certainly motivated to face ranked conference opponents in Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. I have to keep riding this train, even if it means backing a school that is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 meetings with Sparty.
Kezirian: Most college football handicappers understand that this spot typically warrants a play against Penn State. Once an undefeated team with high aspirations suffers its first loss, that team usually allows it to cost another one the following week. I'm not sure Indiana can win in Happy Valley, but the Hoosiers have the chops to keep this within two touchdowns. Plus, the Nittany Lions have Ohio State looming next week, and that could enable them to still reach the CFP. Indiana is 7-2 and coming off a bye, so it's an ideal situation for the Hoosiers. I have to take the candy.
Connelly: This line surprised me a bit. Louisiana Tech is smoking hot, having jumped from 96th to 63rd in SP+ the past six weeks and having gone 5-1-1 ATS since mid-September. Since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged 52 points per game, and though Marshall's D is rounding into form (20.4 points allowed per game in the past five), SP+ projects the Bulldogs as slight favorites (52% win probability), and I think I agree. It's scary going against a 2.5-point line, but when you've got the underdog picked straight up, that helps.
Connelly: Vegas keeps underestimating KSU and overestimating WVU. The Wildcats have covered in four straight (even if they needed a kick-return score and some turnover luck), and the Mountaineers have covered once in their past six and are averaging fewer than 15 points per game in their past four. We can overdo it with short-term trend data sometimes, but that, combined with the SP+ projection (a 38-19 KSU win, which almost gives WVU's offense too much credit), pushes me over the top here. Wildcats roll.
Connelly: When Joe Moorhead-coached teams find matchup advantages, they make the most of them. When they don't ... they don't. Through most of two seasons in Starkville, Moorhead's Bulldogs are 2-8 against teams ranked in the SP+ top 25 and 10-2 against everyone else. In that time frame, Alabama has played six teams in what we'll call SP+'s second quadrant (teams ranked between 35th and 65th) and outscored them by an average of 51-20. If a Bama offense with a limping Tua Tagovailoa can put up 34 points on LSU, it can put up 45 on Mississippi State. SP+ projects a 24-point Bama win (43-19), and the friendly line gives extra confidence here. This is a little higher at Caesars but available at 17.5 at other shops.
Pick: Alabama -17.5
Kezirian: The Tide are very much alive for the CFP, and they know it. They also know style points are necessary. I'm sure last week's loss to LSU took a physical toll, but I also have faith that Nick Saban can keep the train on the tracks. He's the best in the business.
On the other side, Mississippi State is not a very good football team. Before beating Arkansas last week, the Bulldogs lost four straight to Auburn, Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M. All are justifiable losses, but none was by single digits. They also failed to cover in all four. There's nothing I've seen this season that would suggest Mississippi State can hang with Alabama. This should be a pretty one-sided game and could resemble what we saw Saturday, when Dabo Swinney threw a TD pass with 11 seconds left while leading by 39 points.
Connelly: This is a pure numbers pick. SP+ projects USC to win by 13, and the line is a very friendly -6.5. It's hard to trust USC too much, and Cal looked great for the first time in weeks on Saturday, so there's plenty of reason to hedge here. But the combination of SP+ confidence and a good number wins the day.
Connelly: This is the most fascinating line of the week, and though I generally know better than to pick UMass to cover (1-9 ATS this season), I want some skin in the game here. Unless UMass is going to be held to negative points, a 40.5-point spread will require Northwestern to score at least 41 points. (I'm good at math.) The Wildcats have topped 15 points twice in 10 games and managed 30 against UNLV's 112th-ranked (per SP+) defense.
UMass, meanwhile, has held only one opponent to fewer than 44 points, and it was Akron, so that barely counts. This might be the most "resistible force vs. movable object" game of the season. I can't wait -- even if I already regret this pick.
Pick: UMass +40.5
Kezirian: This game certainly provides good gambling fodder, but I think there is some betting value. As soon as I saw the spread, I was inclined to take UMass and all those points. However, the Minutemen rank dead last of 130 FBS teams in yards per play allowed, and that's saying something, given that they haven't exactly been facing elite quarterbacks. They also rank dead last in defensive efficiency, which accounts for quality of opponent.
I'm still inclined to grab the points, but I think the best option is UMass over its team total. It starts with an inept Northwestern offense that ranks 119th in the country. A stalled drive or self-inflicted turnover could lead to a short field for the Minutemen. Keep in mind that this is a unit that scored five offensive touchdowns against UConn. I realize the Wildcats have a better defense, but at some point, Pat Fitzgerald will play his reserves.
Steele: Tom Herman is an outstanding 15-3 ATS as an underdog in his head-coaching career, including 11 outright upsets. Texas was banged up on defense this season but has slowly been getting some players back and last week had a 477-304 yardage edge versus Kansas State. Matt Campbell is another excellent underdog coach, but he's just 3-6 ATS in the role of home favorite the past two seasons. Texas has won the past three meetings, both straight up and ATS. Texas has a great shot at the outright win here but should at least stay within a touchdown.
Steele: Central Michigan is 4-2 in the MAC, with its wins by 26 PPG, but minus-6 in turnovers in its two MAC losses. Tennessee transfer QB Quinten Dormandy has 11 TD passes and just four interceptions, and running backs Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis have combined to rush for 1,651 yards, a solid 6.2 yards per carry and 19 TDs, and they face a Ball State defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry in MAC play. Central has a strong rush defense allowing just 118 yards per game rush and 3.4 YPC. Versus three mutual opponents, Central is plus-223 yards per game, and Ball State is minus-45 yards per game. Central has already played at Wisconsin and Miami (Fla.), so it will not be intimidated by this home crowd.
Steele: LSU has finally exorcised the Alabama demon that haunted it through eight straight losses to the Tide. The Tigers deserve to be the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, with four wins over foes who were ranked in the top 10 at the time. Joe Burrow has just about wrapped up the Heisman Trophy after going 31-of-39 for 393 yards and three TDs against Alabama. LSU will have no trouble winning here, but this is an obvious letdown spot.
Ole Miss outgained Texas A&M 405-337 in its most recent SEC home game and should bring its A-game here after facing New Mexico State last week and with a bye on deck. The Rebels have the SEC's top rush offense, averaging 258 yards per game and 5.4 YPC in SEC play, which will help shrink the clock and keep this under the three-touchdown spread.
ATS pick: Ole Miss +21
Johnson: We cashed last week with John Rhys Plumlee laying 28 points against New Mexico State, and I'm going back to the well in the form of the over in this matchup against the country's No. 1 team. My true projection is 67.8, but I would be remiss not to account for the fact that the Tigers just upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa and could be inevitably flat traveling right back on the road to face a Rich Rodriguez Rebels offense that is flying under the radar nationally. I hope some of the potential lack of focus manifests itself on the defensive side of the ball for LSU and that future Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and the offense are having to play keep-up from the get-go.
Steele: Oklahoma's defense has started to show some cracks, allowing 48 and 41 points, respectively, the past two games. The Sooners lost on the road to Kansas State and survived a 2-point conversion failure by Iowa State last week to escape with a one-point win. Lincoln Riley is 3-9-1 ATS as an away favorite in the regular season. Baylor has struggled the past two weeks dealing with unbeaten pressure as a favorite, but is an undefeated home underdog like Minnesota was last week to Penn State. Baylor is 8-2 ATS as a home 'dog the past nine years, and Matt Rhule is 19-8 ATS as a 'dog of 7.5 or more points.
Steele: The Hokies were blown out at home against Duke 45-10 to fall to 0-2 in ACC play, and many wondered if they would make a bowl. Virginia Tech has come out with a vengeance since then, going 4-1 SU and ATS, including a win at Miami and a one-point loss at Notre Dame. Hendon Hooker has started three ACC games at QB for the Hokies, and they have averaged 40.3 PPG in those, including 36.3 in regulation. Georgia Tech has gained just 14 and 10 first downs in its two ACC home games and now takes on an inspired Virginia Tech defense that just held Wake Forest to 210 yards below its season average. The Hokies control their destiny in the ACC Coastal and will get a big road win here.
Johnson: Minnesota deserves all of the accolades for pulling off an upset win over Penn State on Saturday. However, that doesn't mean we can't bet against the Gophers in Week 12. The Gophers are 5-0 in one-score games this season, but they've been fortunate late in these games, and though head coach P.J. Fleck has an edge over most of the other coaches he has faced in these situations, his team is still performing above expectation. Minnesota's strength of schedule ranks 56th, and Iowa's is seventh (the Hawkeyes are 1-3 in one-score games). Even against the Nittany Lions, Minnesota was ultimately outgained by 58 yards but had a two-turnover advantage. My raw projection is Iowa -4.3, and I'm happy to fade the Gophers off of arguably their biggest program win in 50 years on the road in Kinnick.
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Best bets for Week 12 college football games 🏈
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