Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape. Here are their best bets for the ninth full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records: Johnson record: 28-20-1 (6-3 last week)
Connelly record: 16-11-1 (1-2 last week)
Steele record: 18-30 (2-3 last week)
Kezirian record: 32-25-1 (2-2 last week) Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night. Saturday's games
Kezirian: Pat Fitzgerald has thrived as an underdog. In fact, since the start of 2015, the Wildcats have the nation's best road cover percentage (17-5 ATS) against FBS opponents. That includes 13-2 ATS as a road 'dog. But this is an atypical year in Evanston: The Wildcats have been an absolute disaster offensively, ranking second-to-last in yards per play and dead last in yards per pass attempt (out of 130 FBS schools). In Northwestern's six games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has only mustered a single first-half field goal in four of them.
This is also just a bad spot for the Wildcats. Northwestern devoted a great deal of attention and energy to its last two home games and was outscored 72-3. Now they must hit the road and face a 6-2 Indiana team that has things rolling. The weather forecast doesn't call for wind or anything else significant, so the Hoosiers should be able to handle this game with relative ease. I would also look to bet under Northwestern team totals in both the first half and game. Pick: Indiana -11.5
Kezirian: This is way too many points. UMass is awful, especially on defense, but Liberty shouldn't be laying this kind of lumber on the road. UMass is 1-7 ATS this season, but its lone cover came when it won outright as a home underdog to lowly Akron. This seems like a similar situation. The Flames lost outright last week as 7.5-point favorites at Rutgers. The Minutemen's defense ranks among the worst in FBS in several categories, including dead last in yards allowed per play. They figure to give up a lot of points on Saturday, but I like coach Walt Bell and believe he can keep this within three scores. I do not recommend watching this game. Pick: UMass +23.5 Utah Utes (-3) at Washington Huskies
Kezirian: It takes a special team to cover on the road against Huskies coach Chris Petersen, who traditionally has thrived as a home underdog. But Utah has the exact ingredients you need to cover this spot. It starts with defense, which is a signature of Kyle Whittingham. The Utes only allow 4.3 YPP (11th in the country). Given their style, one might assume the offense is limited. However, all of Utah's wins have come by at least 18 points. The stifling defense creates points and/or short fields for the offense. Utah's lone loss came at USC in as bizarre of a game as you can imagine. The Utes dominated rushing yards (247-13) and time of possession (38:12 to 21:48), but committed 16 penalties, had a field goal attempt blocked and fumbled on the goal line just before halftime. Utah should be undefeated and has the goods to get this done. Pick: Utah -3 Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons (-6, 49.5)
Johnson: Akron QB Kato Nelson served a suspension the previous two games and is set to return Saturday against Bowling Green. The Zips are still one of the worst teams in the country, but Nelson's return is vital to their offense -- and they are going up against a Bowling Green defense that allows 7.1 YPP (129th out of 130 teams). The Falcons' offense has been riding QB Grant Loy since he took over when we backed them against Toledo, and they won outright as 27.5-point underdogs. The weather is clear, and my projection jumps from 48.6 to 53.2 with Nelson returning for Akron. I don't think the market has reacted correctly yet, or at least not enough, so I grabbed the over 49.5. Pick: Over 49.5 SMU Mustangs at Memphis Tigers (-6)
Connelly: I guess I should put my money where my mouth is, huh? On Tuesday, I wrote that SMU is extremely lucky to be unbeaten and that my SP+ ratings suggest a nearly two-touchdown win for Memphis on Saturday. Let's go ahead and make it one of my best bets!
Memphis has had a strange few weeks from a betting perspective. Per SP+, the Tigers' underlying statistics suggested about an eight-point win at Temple, a 15-point win over Tulane and a 14-point win at Tulsa. But turnover luck -- the difference between your turnover margin and expected turnover margin (more on that here) -- turned the Tulane game into a 30-point blowout, the Temple game into a loss and nearly turned the Tulsa game into the same. SMU is probably going to need a few bounces to remain unbeaten, as their two worst performances (Tulsa, at Houston) have come in their past three games. SP+ suggests a 36-24 Tigers win, and though the Mustangs could turn it into more of a track meet, Memphis has plenty of track meet experience. A 46-34 score would be a cover all the same. Pick: Memphis -6 Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1.5) at ULM Warhawks
Connelly: The ULM defense has been fascinating this season. The Warhawks have allowed 55 points per game in four losses and 13 PPG in three wins. Either everything or nothing works, with no in-between. When playing teams within its own weight class, however, the Arkansas State offense tends to work. In five games against teams outside of the SP+ top 50, the Red Wolves are averaging 42 PPG. Returns have diminished for freshman ASU quarterback Layne Hatcher in recent weeks (he took over for the injured Logan Bonner a month ago), but running back Marcel Murray has looked good carrying a heavier load, and ULM's run defense is ... lacking. The Warhawks can hold their own in a track meet, but I am more confident about ASU's defense making stops at some point than I am about ULM's -- a lot more confident. Pick: Arkansas State -1.5 Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-2)
Connelly: Hawaii is a hard team to get a grasp on. The Warriors have generally adhered to SP+ projections but drastically overachieved in a 54-3 win over Nevada and significantly underachieved in a 56-26 loss to Air Force. Hawaii has the potential to make any pick look stupid, but this pick is more about Fresno State. The Bulldogs have been inching closer and closer to total liftoff offensively, and the dreadful Hawaii defense (120th in defensive SP+) could be the thing that helps them reach their full potential. Expect a big day from Fresno running back Ronnie Rivers, who had a combined 18 rushes and receptions for 190 yards last week, both on the ground and through the air. Pick: Fresno State +2 Boston College Eagles at Syracuse Orange (-3)
Steele: Boston College is tough on the road, going 12-3-1 ATS the past six seasons as an away underdog. Syracuse came into the season with big expectations off a 10-win season but is now 0-4 in ACC play and is getting outgained by 160 yards per game in those four conference losses.
The Eagles have the game's best offensive player in running back AJ Dillon, but the most significant edge for Boston College is on the offensive line. The Eagles rush for 5.1 yards per rush and have allowed four sacks, and Syracuse's offensive line has opened holes for only 3.0 yards per rush while allowing 42 sacks. Steve Addazio is 12-1-1 ATS the past 14 games in the underdog role. ATS pick: Boston College +3 Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-2)
Steele: The winner of this game takes sole possession of first place in the mosh pit they call the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia is allowing just 284 YPG on defense, and North Carolina is yielding 384, but the Tar Heels have faced a much tougher schedule. On offense, the Tar Heels average 89 YPG more than what their opponents typically allow, and Virginia is gaining 49 YPG fewer than what opponents typically allow. UNC QB Sam Howell has 22 TDs and just five interceptions, and Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins has a 9-8 ratio despite facing a softer schedule. My computer has North Carolina with a 386-283 yard edge, and the Heels are laying less than a field goal in a night game at home. ATS pick: North Carolina -2 Pittsburgh Panthers (-7.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: No one expected Pitt to win the Coastal division last season, but the Panthers did. Last week Pitt lost to Miami despite having a 322-208 yardage edge, but it still has a great shot at another Coastal crown with just two ACC losses. Pitt has one of the nation's most underrated defenses, allowing only 291 YPG and holding foes to 100 yards fewer than their season average. That is bad news for a Georgia Tech offense averaging just 315 yards per game. Pitt is 11-2 ATS the past 13 regular-season games against FBS foes, and the Yellow Jackets are on a 1-9 ATS run their past 10 games. ATS pick: Pittsburgh -7.5 Northern Illinois Huskies (-1) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Steele: Central Michigan has two MAC road losses despite a 48-46 first-down edge in those games (-6 in turnovers). The Chippewas are plus-138 YPG in MAC play and have covered the past five meetings overall, including three outright upsets. Central's running back duo of Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis is tough to stop, and NIU allows 4.5 yards per rush. This is not the same NIU team of the past few seasons. Central Michigan also has a significant edge in my special-teams rankings. ATS pick: Central Michigan +1 No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (-21) at Maryland Terrapins
Steele: The Wolverines' offense emerged in the second half against a tough Penn State defense on the road a couple weeks ago and should continue to roll the rest of the season. Last week, they dominated Notre Dame, leading 45-7 with a 409-105 yard edge until a late Notre Dame scoring drive. When Maryland has faced a strong rush defense recently, it has struggled. The past two seasons, Maryland is 0-8 ATS and loses by 28 PPG when rushing for fewer than 165 yards in a game. Michigan is allowing 53 YPG rushing the past four weeks, despite facing Iowa, Penn State and Notre Dame in that span. After some early-season struggles, the Wolverines should keep their offense rolling, as they have put up 59 points the past six quarters versus a pair of top-10 defenses. Next they take on a Terrapins defense that is allowing 500 YPG in Big Ten play. ATS pick: Michigan -21
Kezirian: The Terps are a hot mess right now, particularly at the quarterback position. They've played four guys, and none demonstrated any reason for optimism. Josh Jackson has posted the best numbers and is expected to start, but he was pulled last week after briefly returning from an ankle injury. What does this all mean? The Wolverines have a strong defense and will torment whomever is under center for Maryland. I'm annoyed that this number has come up a few points, but I still expect a rout. Michigan can be frustrating to bet on, given Shea Patterson's inexplicable turnovers, but the Wolverines should be able to do what they want on both sides of the ball. Maryland blows out inferior teams but can never hang with quality ones. The Terps have lost to undefeateds Minnesota and Penn State by a combined score of 111-10. Michigan is on the same level, and there is no home-field advantage at the Snake Pit.
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Best bets for Week 10 college football games 🏈
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