The Fall Classic is upon us. Astros or Nationals? Our betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Preston Johnson weigh in on bets they like for the World Series.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday evening.
Fortenbaugh: I wholeheartedly agree that the Astros should be favored, but the well-rested Nationals at a price of +195 is just too good to pass up. Max Scherzer appears to have put his late-season struggles in the rearview mirror with a four-outing postseason that features just four earned runs in 20 innings, with two starts going at least seven innings. Washington is 4-0 when Stephen Strasburg takes the bump this postseason, thanks to just four runs surrendered over 22 innings with an amazing 33 strikeouts to just one walk. And Justin Verlander looks vulnerable by Justin Verlander standards (10 ER over last 17.1 IP), while the volatile Zack Greinke will take the ball in Washington for Game 3 facing a hostile crowd in a city that hasn't witnessed a World Series home game since 1933.
Pick: Nationals (+195) to win the series
Johnson: The Nationals were undervalued, after a slow start for most of the regular season and for the entirety of the postseason. After they won the National League pennant, I was anticipating -- and hoping -- that we would see an overreaction the other way and find value on the Astros in the World Series. I still project Houston to win it all 69.1% of the time, or a true price of -224. A few early look-ahead lines while the Astros-Yankees ALCS was concluding had Houston -165 against Washington. That discount didn't last long, and in the current market, there isn't any value, in my opinion.
I have had people who read our second-half World Series futures piece during the All-Star break ask what I am doing to hedge our Nationals future at 25-1. In Las Vegas, I was able to grab an Astros future after the Zack Greinke trade news midseason. I'm still in a position where I win about four times as much if the Nationals win it all (I was able to get 40-1 at a different sportsbook), but I'm letting that difference ride. That doesn't mean you don't have options, however.
While hedging futures bets will cut into expected long-term profitability, I think it's also a comfortability decision (especially if you're just betting for fun as a hobby). If the payout on a Nationals future is significant money to you, then the ability to lock up a portion of that amount -- no matter who wins the series -- is compelling.
For example, for a $100 bettor at 25-1, the Nationals winning pays $2,500. Maybe risking $1,750 on the Astros to win and netting roughly $750 is the way to go. Maybe you prefer to let more ride on the Nationals side or not bother hedging at all. That's ultimately up to each bettor, and you have the option to do whatever you're most comfortable with.
Pick: Pass on series; hedge Nationals futures at a good price.
Kezirian: It's hard to refrain from betting a team with Strasburg, Scherzer and Patrick Corbin at such an enticing price, but I just feel Houston is the better team and will win the World Series. Additionally, if you grab Washington's current odds, you are at least optimistic the Nationals can win Game 1. Otherwise, the adjusted series price is going to increase with a Houston win. So to jump on Washington now, you have to like your chances with Scherzer against Gerrit Cole. To me, Cole has been just so dominant, while Scherzer has been a bit shaky over the past seven weeks. On top of that, Houston's lineup is extremely dangerous. I'm not getting involved right now. Pick: Pass
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Best 2019 World Series value bets ⚾
Reply With Quote