'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 3 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 3 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 3 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 3. The plays
No one has started the season better than the Dirty Terps. But Temple has the personnel on defense (the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference, in my opinion) to slow the Terrapins down. I like the spot here for the Owls, who upset Maryland last season as 16-point dog when they played two safeties down to help against the run and dared Maryland to throw the ball. The Terps couldn't capitalize when they took shots down the field and could have similar issues this time around. Pick: Temple +7. Maryland 34, Temple 33.
Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5, 62) Tough, tough matchup for the Cardinal. A week after getting torched by the USC offense led by a true freshman quarterback, they travel across the country to play the even more wide-open and speedy offense of the Knights. Just don't think the Cardinal has the personnel to hold up for 60 minutes.
Absolutely love the start of the season the Purple Kats from Manhattan have had. I know they haven't played the best competition (Bowling Green and Nicholls), but the handprints of this Chris Klieman coaching staff can already be seen. Quarterback Skylar Thompson leads the FBS in Total QBR (97), the Wildcats lead the country in time of possession at 42 minutes per game, rank 12th in FBS in scoring at 50.5 points per game and are third in rushing yards per game with 347 per contest. The Bulldogs' offense might take a hit with the uncertain status of their captain, quarterback Tommy Stevens. Wildcats haven't won a nonconference road game since 2011.
Pick: K-State +8. Mississippi State 27, Kansas State 22.
The Bear (1-3-1 last week, 1-7-1 overall)
Temple vs. Maryland (-7, 66.5) This is an auto play based on how great the Terps' offense has been so far and how Maryland is one of the flavors of the month in college football -- and deservedly so. But Temple's defense is much better than anything the Terps have faced this season. Last season the 0-2 Owls blitzed 2-0 Maryland as a 16-point 'dog. This edition of the Terps is much better, but Rod Carey is now on the sidelines for the Owls and this is a very experienced Temple defense. I'll take the points here and give the Owls a chance to win on the field. Since 2015, Temple is 16-5 against the spread with 10 outright wins as a 'dog, so it has performed well in this role under multiple head coaches.
Pick: Temple +7
Penn State Nittany Lions (-17, 53.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Nobody loves covering more as a big favorite than James Franklin, as evidenced by the second-half onslaught last week against Buffalo. And there is certainly no love lost in this rivalry. Given how slowly the Nittany Lions started last week, I would be surprised if that happened again. Pitt is down a couple of key players on the defensive side of the ball as well, which could help that cause. The Virginia defense slowed down Pitt, and I think Penn State's defense is better than Virginia's. In its past four games against Power 5 teams, Pitt has four touchdowns, six turnovers and has failed to gain a first down on 27 of 54 drives. I'm sure Pitt will try to milk the play clock and shorten the game, but I can't see the Panthers cracking 17 points here.
Pick: Penn State -17
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 55.5) Illinois is 2-0 after victories over Akron and UConn, but I wouldn't pencil the Illini into a bowl spot just yet. Quarterback Brandon Peters has been OK, but the Illini actually trailed UConn by double digits before rallying last week. I love EMU as a 'dog, especially after an uncharacteristic loss vs. Kentucky last week. I'd expect Chris Creighton's team to play well this week. Remember, last season the Eagles won on the road at Purdue. And 2019 Illinois isn't as good as 2018 Purdue.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +7
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 44.5) I usually hate giving out the game I'll be attending for GameDay, but after a week off following the escape against Northern Iowa, I think Cyclones coach Matt Campbell was allowed a whole lot of "teaching moments." That close call could be the best thing to happen to Iowa State. Iowa is pretty good and my pick is certainly no slight against the Hawkeyes. But Campbell's record as a home 'dog (9-2 ATS) and the bitter taste ISU has to have in its mouth after blowing the 2017 game have to factor in here somehow. I expect at least one unranked team to pull an upset this week, and this seems like a logical spot.
Pick: Iowa State +2.5
Michigan State Spartans (-14, 41.5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils I was high on ASU entering the season, but I don't like this spot at all. A true freshman quarterback making his first road start behind a shaky offensive line and for an offense that has struggled mightily to score touchdowns in the red zone? Add the layer of facing a really good defense -- and one looking for revenge from last season. The Spartans' offense woke up last week, and if it plays like that this season, MSU will be just fine. I do hate taking teams the week after they beat me, as Michigan State did last week against Western Michigan. I'm guessing my unofficial record in these types of picks is something like 11-204. OK, I'm exaggerating a bit, but I do like the Spartans here.
Pick: Michigan State -14
Washington Huskies (-21, 59) vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Hawai'i has square public 'dog written all over it, given its 2-0 start against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12 and the fact Washington looks vulnerable after a strange home loss to Cal. But the Huskies have made a living the past couple of seasons feasting on games like this. It reminds me a little of last season's BYU game, where Washington was an 18-point favorite over a Cougars team that had already won in Camp Randall. And people raised an eyebrow at that spread. The final score: Washington 35, BYU 7. Hawai'i will likely score more than seven points, but it will also turn the ball over a lot, and that should result in easy points for the Huskies.
Pick: Washington -21
Others I thought of that just missed the cut ...
East Carolina (+7 at Navy): Just don't know if the defense is up to the task yet in this spot.
North Texas (+13.5 at Cal): Letdown spot for Cal against a team that was blown out by SMU last week? Stay-away games
The Bear
Oklahoma Sooners (-23.5, 72.5) at UCLA Bruins The Sooners are going to be a huge public side and I'm not a fan of being on those types of sides. Sure, sometimes they are obvious, easy winners, but I'm not going near the spread -- but I will put the Sooners in the ML parlay.
Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes (-4.5, 59) Awfully small number to lay with a team coming off a comeback upset victory over Nebraska. Be careful here.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5, 60.5) at Indiana Hoosiers Indiana and I broke up last season. I got a call the other night from an Indiana area code and I let it go to voicemail. I am steadfast in my determination to avoid letting my ex Indiana back into my life. "Indiana Football: Just good enough to get you beat."
Stanford Steve
Washington State Cougars (-8.5, 74) at Houston Cougars Word is things get weird when Mike Leach and Dana Holgorsen are in the same place late on a Friday night. Stay away!
Iowa (-2, 44.5) at Iowa State I'll just sit back and watch these two go at it. Can't wait. The Bear's underdogs to play in a money-line parlay and/or round robin
Temple +220
Eastern Michigan +240
Liberty +190
Western Kentucky +320
West Virginia +200
The Bear's money-line parlay
We hit last week's in the neighborhood of $63 per $100, so we'll go with this 11-teamer that wins $68.70 on a $100 wager.
Boston College -2000
Ohio State -900
Cincinnati -900
Penn State -900
Georgia -17000
Notre Dame -15000
Alabama -2500
Washington -2000
Clemson -5000
Oklahoma -3000
Auburn -20000 Stanford Steve's conference-game favorites worth taking
Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Cavaliers (-7, 57) FSU started last season with a brutal loss at home and then squeaked by as a 33-point favorite against Samford, winning 36-26. The Seminoles followed that up by getting blasted at Syracuse. This season feels like it's following a similar path, as they travel to play their first conference game versus a very hungry team in Charlottesville. Coach Willie Taggart says the Seminoles have to play a perfect game. I don't think they will.
Pick: Virginia -7. Virginia 31, Florida State 16.
East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen (-7, 53.5) I mentioned plenty this offseason that I loved the hire by the Pirates bringing in Mike Houston to run the program. I know he knows how to play defense against the option, I'm just not sure he has the players to stop it.
Pick: Navy -7. Navy 35, ECU 24.
Stanford Steve's double-digit favorites he likes to cover
UMass Minutemen at Charlotte 49ers (-18.5, 68) The Minutemen might have the worst defense in the country. The roster is thin and the defense was undermanned when Walt Bell took over the program this past offseason. Charlotte head coach Will Healy is a name you will hear plenty about in the future, if you haven't heard about what he did at Austin Peay the past couple seasons. The 49ers need another victory before they head to Clemson next week.
Boston College Eagles -12
Penn State Nittany Lions -8
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5 Bear Bytes
This is the first weekend since Week 7 of 2017 that there isn't a single matchup between ranked teams on the schedule. What happened on that October weekend? Seven ranked teams lost and five lost as favorites, including three as favorites of at least 16.5 points. One of those big favorites who lost? Clemson as a 23.5-point favorite that Friday night at Syracuse. Each of the past five weekends where there hasn't been a ranked matchup, at least two ranked teams have lost.
The last time there was a weekend without a ranked matchup that all ranked teams won was Sept. 25, 2004. And that weekend, No. 1 -- and eventual national champion -- USC needed a fourth-quarter TD and rallied from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat what would be a 4-7 Stanford team 31-28.
Here are the past five weekends without a ranked matchup (where ranked team lost):
2017 Week 7 (Oct. 13-14)
No. 2 Clemson (-23.5) at Syracuse, lost 27-24
No. 5 Washington (-18) at Arizona State, lost 13-7
No. 8 Washington State (-16.5) at Cal, lost 37-3
No. 10 Auburn (-7) vs. LSU, lost 27-23
No. 19 San Diego State (-4.5) vs. Boise State, lost 31-14
No. 24 Texas Tech (+4.5) at West Virginia, lost 46-35
No. 25 Navy (+3.5) at Memphis, lost 30-27
2016 Week 2 (Sept. 10) No. 15 TCU (-9) vs. Arkansas, lost 41-38
No. 22 Oklahoma State (-19) vs. Central Michigan, lost 30-27
2012 Week 2 (Sept. 8) No. 8 Arkansas (-30.5) vs. UL Monroe, lost 34-31
No. 13 Wisconsin (-7) at Oregon State, lost 10-7
No. 16 Nebraska (-5) at UCLA, lost 36-30
No. 18 Oklahoma State (-10.5) at Arizona, lost 59-38
2009 Week 12 (Nov. 21) No. 10 LSU (+5) at Ole Miss, lost 25-23
No. 14 Stanford (-7.5) vs. Cal, lost 34-28
No. 17 Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern, lost 33-31
No. 25 Rutgers (-9.5) at Syracuse, lost 31-13
2008 Week 2 (Sept. 6) No. 8 West Virginia (-7.5) at East Carolina, lost 24-3
No. 24 South Carolina (-7) at Vanderbilt, lost 24-17
Stanford at UCF
This is the first time since 2008 at TCU that the Cardinal are an underdog vs. a Group of 5 team. Stanford lost 31-14 at TCU that day as a 14.5-point dog.
This is the second time in the College Football Playoff era that UCF is favored over a Power 5 team. UCF beat Pitt 45-14 as a 13.5-point favorite in 2018.
With a victory against Wake, the Tar Heels would become the fifth team to open a season 3-0 winning all three games as an underdog. The others: 2012 Oregon State, 2004 Florida Atlantic, 2001 Fresno State and 1993 Louisiana.
Florida State at Virginia
As a Power 5 head coach, Willie Taggart is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as a road underdog. Five of the six losses have come by at least 17 points. The only game that didn't was last season's 28-27 loss at Miami. The other five losses came by 29, 19, 35, 17 and 42 points, with Taggart's team failing to cover by an average of 17 PPG.
Jeff Brohm is 8-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog. The Boilermakers have won the past two games in which they entered as a home 'dog (Ohio State, Boston College).
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Week 3 college football picks, bets, nuggets 🎓
Maryland Terrapins (-7, 66.5) at Temple Owls
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