[Hman]

Michigan, Florida State among Steele's early best bets for Week 1

Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Week 1 of the college football season is still over a month away, but Caesars Sportsbook already has lines on the games. After looking over the full slate, six games stand out to me. Play these games now, as a month from now the lines may not be as favorable.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-14.5) vs. UMass Minutemen

Rutgers needs to get some wins in 2019. Head coach Chris Ash is 3-2 as a home favorite and is entering a pivotal fourth season, coming off a 1-11 campaign. Last year, the Scarlet Knights opened as a home favorite against Texas State and rolled to a 35-7 victory ... their only one of the season. They were minus-13 in turnovers, but this year should more resemble the 4-8 team of 2017. The Scarlet Knights have 13 starters back, while UMass not only has a new head coach but also has only eight starters back (No. 130 on my experience chart). It may seem like a lot of points to lay with Rutgers, but the two times Ash was a double-digit favorite the past two years, he covered by an average of 17.5 points per game.


ATS pick: Rutgers -14.5
Score: Rutgers 41, Massachusetts 17


New Mexico State Aggies (+34) at Washington State Cougars

New Mexico State got to a bowl game two years ago and could be close to the 2017 version led by quarterback Josh Adkins, running back Jason Huntley and a much-improved defense. Washington State went the transfer route again at quarterback, bringing in Gage Gubrud from Eastern Washington and moving up from No. 122 on my experience chart to No. 70. Washington State is 8-11 ATS versus nonconference teams the past five years and is a slow-starting team, dropping its past four home openers against the number, including two outright upsets by FCS teams. I will take the nearly five-touchdown spread here.


ATS pick: New Mexico State +34
Score: Washington State 42, New Mexico State 20



Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+20.5) at Texas Longhorns

Skip Holtz is a solid 14-4-1 as an away underdog the past five years. Texas has opened the season with upset losses to Maryland each of the past two years and has a huge game home against LSU the next week. Longhorns head coach Tom Herman is one of the premier underdog coaches in the game, but he is only 6-15-1 as a home favorite. Texas has the talent edge on offense, defense and even special teams, but the situation favors Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are also the more experienced team (No. 28 on my experience chart vs. No. 92 for Texas) and have a veteran starting quarterback in J'Mar Smith.


ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Score: Texas 34, Louisiana Tech 21



Michigan Wolverines (-31) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Michigan has won its last 10 home openers by 32 points per game. Defensive coordinator Don Brown had the top defense in the country last year until he ran into Ohio State and Florida the last two games and his D gave up 103 points.


Middle Tennessee has been a strong team the past four years with a healthy Brent Stockstill at QB, but much weaker on offense when he missed games. The Blue Raiders now have a first-time starting QB with only one starter back on the offensive line and open their season in front of over 107,000 fans and a blitzing defense. Michigan has a new, faster-paced offense trying to get up to speed and the Wolverines also have a significant special-teams edge (No. 7 vs. No. 96). Middle Tennessee lost its opener to Vanderbilt the past two seasons with Stockstill at quarterback by 22 and 28 points. Vanderbilt is not to be confused with an angry, embarrassed Michigan team.


ATS pick: Michigan -31
Score: Michigan 48, Middle Tennessee State 3



Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (+22.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last year, Mississippi State rolled to a 56-10 win over Louisiana, scoring on its first seven possessions (49-3 after three quarters). This game takes place in New Orleans, and though Mississippi State has the larger fan base, Louisiana usually fills up the Superdome when they travel here for bowl games and should have the crowd edge.


The Bulldogs lose their entire defensive line, including two first-round NFL draft picks and a sixth-rounder, and overall Louisiana is the more experienced team (No. 15 vs. No. 84 on my experience chart). Louisiana has a trio of outstanding RBs in Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais, who each ran for over 750 yards last season. The Ragin' Cajuns should find more room to run than they did last year when they had just 65 yards rushing. Louisiana is pumped up about this game and will keep the game much closer than last year's contest.


ATS pick: Louisiana +22.5
Score: Mississippi State 34, Louisiana 20



Florida State Seminoles (-4) vs. Boise State Broncos

Florida State looks like a vastly improved team this year, with better depth and players who have bought into Willie Taggart's system. The Seminoles have ULM on deck, and though this is technically a "neutral" site game, it will be played in Jacksonville -- that gives Florida State the heat, humidity and crowd edge. Boise State will have a first-time starting quarterback but gets all five starters back on the offensive line, and the defense returns seven starters.


The Broncos are a talented team coming off a 10-win season, but lost their past two matchups against Power Five teams by 19 and 23 points -- and that was against Virginia and Oklahoma State. I will side with a hungry Florida State team out to prove the doubters wrong.


ATS pick: Florida State -4
Score: Florida State 31, Boise State 17

[jtoler]

I wanna know who's taking boise

[BigdaddyQH]

I like Boise State here. Steele knows nothing and he proves it, by saying that Florida State "looks like a vastly improved team this year..." Looks like? How would he know? Has he been attending practice? I will take the team that had a 10-3 record and returns players who are disciplined and know how to play defense. Boise +4 should be the play. Use caution when considering anything Steele says. He is a known loser. He has lost so much money in the past 5 seasons and his rag gave out so much useless information that he had to get a job with ESPN and others just to break even. They will not even sell his rag out here. They do sell Athlon and Lindsey's to give you an idea of just how bad and unpopular Steele has gotten.

[jjgold]

Steele was voted top 10 worst cappers ever


He among most admit they do not gamble

[BigdaddyQH]

Steele was voted top 10 worst cappers ever


He among most admit they do not gamble

JJ, he has lost way too much money to afford to gamble. He is losing money on his Rag. I would trust any 'capper in here more than Steele, and that includes Lakerboy and yourself. That is how bad Steele is.

[gojetsgomoxies]

generally, i like all those picks and the rationales.

laying 14.5 points on rutgers is a little crazy...... but it's against umass. umass had a stud QB for 3 years and were still terrible.

just as an aside, what is going on with umass? i thought they were moving to FCS. but i still see them in the FBS previews.

[jjgold]

Once the ball is kicked off nobody knows what’s going to happen any given day

[BigdaddyQH]

JJ, that is like saying once the sun rises, nobody is going to know what is going to happen on any given day. Very weak, even for you.

[Sam Odom]

QH is keeping JJ in check

[KVB]

QH is keeping JJ in check

We have to go easy on BigDaddy, his self esteem has been beaten to a pulp as of late. He's just using Gold as an easy target to make himself feel worthy and hope the Forum forgets that he doesn't actually bet. BigDaddy's posts are born out of weakness, not strength here.

[BigdaddyQH]

We have to go easy on BigDaddy, his self esteem has been beaten to a pulp as of late. He's just using Gold as an easy target to make himself feel worthy and hope the Forum forgets that he doesn't actually bet. BigDaddy's posts are born out of weakness, not strength here.

You will be made a fool of, and humiliated on 8/1. You have a huge inferiority complex and are afraid of your own shadow.

[jjgold]

Sticks and stones a break my bones but names will never hurt me

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sticks and stones a break my bones but names will never hurt me

JJ, u have any good Jersey mafia stories?

[daneblazer]

It SOUNDS like FSU players are buying into the new system.

They SHOULD beat Boise State.

FSU has significantly more talent than Boise. Talent isn't the issue...

[Otters27]

Heard Florida State is the play

[KiDBaZkiT]

You mean, Phil SHILL? Guy works for the books. Gets on live radio during the week and gives out Brock Landers type fades.

[gojetsgomoxies]

You mean, Phil SHILL? Guy works for the books. Gets on live radio during the week and gives out Brock Landers type fades.

i see alot of people saying stuff like this but don't see any evidence of it.

people think some touts are proven losers, meaning fading them should be proven winner........ but most likely they are close to break-even pre-juice. i.e. they don't have negative predictive power.

when i see phil's picks, i don't always understand them........... whereas the goldsheets picks (used to be free on bloomberg terminal) were very well articulated. off topic

[gojetsgomoxies]

off topic, but i really liked goldsheets quantitiative systems, like highly ranked teams that aren't that strong offensively (i.e. won't cover moderately big spread, or even 10 point spreads, but overwhelming favorite to win).........

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You mean, Phil SHILL? Guy works for the books. Gets on live radio during the week and gives out Brock Landers type fades.

Remember when PhilS busted out BetOnSports + Millenium group? Guaranteed the "Northcoast line" + bankrupt that book/consortium.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Like most touts, he's just playing trends; no logic in his picks.

[TheMoneyShot]

I don't know about the Michigan -31 cover... Harbaugh typically likes to run different formats and systems.... when up by 3 TD's in a game. Things he typically wouldn't run... just to see if it works. No play either way... better games on the board.

Is Middle Tennessee that bad this year??? I guess we'll find out.

[Chief Wahoo]

I'm still trying to figure out how Michigan is rated in the top 5 of a lot of these polls. No front seven on defense and offense put up a whopping 15 points against Florida last time out. They may have a good match up week one but will be hammering against them the rest of the year.

[bonzaii]

If Michigan doesn't win the Big Ten this year, probably just turn into one of those bitch ass fair weather fans that only watches when things are the up and up.

[lonegambler23]

jj on phils bandwagon this year. trusting touts

[xKMACKx]

I don't know about the Michigan -31 cover... Harbaugh typically likes to run different formats and systems.... when up by 3 TD's in a game. Things he typically wouldn't run... just to see if it works. No play either way... better games on the board.

Is Middle Tennessee that bad this year??? I guess we'll find out.

Josh Gattis is running the entire offense this season. No huddle fast paced.

[xKMACKx]

I'm still trying to figure out how Michigan is rated in the top 5 of a lot of these polls. No front seven on defense and offense put up a whopping 15 points against Florida last time out. They may have a good match up week one but will be hammering against them the rest of the year.

Their current offense and offense then are not comparable. They're going from an old school pound the ball offense to uptempo spread it around like Ohio State/Alabama.

Shea Patterson was never a pro-style quarterback.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i don't know anything about michigan and its transition to new offense.

but a few things i will say,

1) i think harbaugh has done a really good job, but they just can't seem to get over the OSU hump. one of the magazines had the scout comments and he said that ohio state has the athletes to beat michigan's blitzing single coverage.

2) doesn't harbaugh run up the score really badly?

3) just going more quickly should lead to alot of points even if the offense isn't highly efficient...

MTSU would have been a good 2019 season pick if stocksill was back at QB. but without him, it's probably dismal.

i've thought of that as a fade system. mediocre programs that lose stud 3 or 4 year starters. MTSU and UMass would qualify this year.. i'll try to find others. buffalo? (and buffalo lost top receivers to nfl AND unexpected transfers)

[shocka1212]

taking Miami +7... already placed the bet..... law of odds factor. thats all

[shocka1212]

taking Miami +7... already placed the bet..... law of odds factor. thats all

cha Ching

[gojetsgomoxies]

doesn't harbaugh run up the score? i.e. the anti-saban.......... and fast-paced offense....

i also think it'd be impossible to overstate QB stocksill's importance to that MTSU program. having said that, MTSU has some solid talent, but i don't think it will matter.

[Combato]

Steele should stick to his magazine and leave the capping to others.

His stuff is probably decent fade material. 50/50 is probably the worst case if you fade him.

[Wolverine88]

doesn't harbaugh run up the score? i.e. the anti-saban.......... and fast-paced offense....

i also think it'd be impossible to overstate QB stocksill's importance to that MTSU program. having said that, MTSU has some solid talent, but i don't think it will matter.

Yes, Harbaugh will look to score as much as possible, he'll be looking to get Patterson a lot of confidence before they hit the meat of the schedule, when McCaffrey finally comes in, he'll look to score as well.