2019 NBA Finals: Best bets for Warriors-Raptors Game 3

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


The 2019 NBA playoffs are nearing their conclusion, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to give their best bets for every game of the NBA Finals.


All odds courtesy of Caesars.
Wednesday's Game 3


Toronto Raptors (+175) at Golden State Warriors (-200)

Game 3 line: Warriors -4.5
Game 3 over/under: 213
Fortenbaugh: Game 2 featured one of Toronto's worst shooting performances of the 2019 postseason as well as a brutal, scoreless 5-minute, 39-second stretch to commence the third quarter and, yet, the Raptors still found a way to hang 104 points in regulation. Toronto shot 37 percent from the field (down from 47.4 percent during the regular season, fifth in the NBA) and 28.9 percent from deep (down from 36.6 percent during the regular season, sixth in the NBA), which are performances that I don't see as sustainable for another 48 minutes of action.


Add to the mix that Klay Thompson(NBA All-Defensive second team in 2019) is battling a hamstring injury that knocked him out of Game 2, Kevon Looney is out for the rest of the playoffs and Andre Iguodala is still battling a calf injury, and you are left with a seriously compromised Golden State defense. Look for Kawhi Leonard & Co. to take advantage.


Pick: Raptors team total over 104 points


Schultz: The sky is falling in the Bay. At least that's what Steve Kerr hopes the Raptors are thinking. But with the series tied up heading West, Kerr can rest easy knowing he made the correct decision by inserting a previously frigid DeMarcus Cousins into his Game 2 starting lineup. It might not have been a typical Cousins performance, but his double-double in an impressive 28 minutes is a welcome sign. A physical presence who neutralized Marc Gasol (six points on 2-of-7 shooting), Cousins also inverted the floor with his timely passing, hence the six assists. In fact, the Warriors were plus-12 with him on the floor and minus-7 without him. Perhaps Cousins can be a second option alongside Stephen Curry, who is rather quietly averaging a cool 28.5 points in the Finals and has scored 20-plus in nine straight games.


The bottom line is that Toronto, which holds the league's best record when leading at the half, let the ultimate opportunity slip away in Game 2 on its home floor. We are 2-0 ATS thus far in terms of the point spread, so know this: Things will only worsen for the Raptors in Game 3 as they succumb to the raucous "Roaralce" faithful.


Pick: Warriors -4.5


Kezirian: To me, it's a bet on the Raptors or nothing. If Golden State was at full strength, I would back the Warriors. However, even with coming down from -5.5, it makes no sense to bet on the favorite. That's because if Klay Thompsonis cleared, the spread would only move a half-point. Personally, I prefer to wait because I would not want a ticket on Golden State without knowing Thompson's status. However, even if he is cleared, I am skeptical of his comfort level. Is he just playing hurt? Would he still suit up if this were a regular-season game?


Pick: Pass


Johnson: I know it isn't exciting to be neutral on another NBA Finals game, but with Kevon Looney out and Klay Thompson questionable, on top of Kevin Durant's ongoing calf injury, there is way too much uncertainty for me to get involved. Looney's absence is generally being understated. He has been the best big man for the Warriors throughout the playoffs and leads the team with a plus-12.4 net rating. DeMarcus Cousins, on the other hand, is a minus-6.1 (and this includes the time he was on the court during the Warriors' 18-0 run to start the second half in Toronto in Game 2). I know everyone claims Cousins is back now, but I can't really trust a guy who hasn't been playing regular minutes and has been a net negative for the Warriors all season.


If you like the Raptors anyway, then there probably isn't too much downside taking them +6 (now +5 most places). The loss of Looney and then Thompson not being 100 percent even if he plays definitely should impact the point spread. Plus-six on Toronto is high if Thompson can't end up giving it a go, either. If he does, which it looks as if it will be the case, I still don't know how to correctly price his impact with his effectiveness on the offensive and defensive end being an unknown injured. I'm staying away.


Pick: Pass
NBA Finals series picks


Johnson: While it was gratifying to see Toronto ultimately come through and win the Eastern Conference, there was an obvious reason that I was only betting the Raptors to win the East and not the NBA championship. I probably won't be betting against the Warriors until the year 2030 at this rate. Even if Kevin Durant were to miss the entire series, my true price is the Warriors as a -285 favorite (74.0 percentimplied win probability). I didn't want anything to do with needing an upset win in the NBA Finals, and I similarly wouldn't want to bother betting against Golden State at this point either.


Laying -300 when I make the line -285 is a wager with negative expected value, so that isn't in the cards. So where do I see value?


Steph Curry to win the Finals MVP award at -125 sticks out. I considered making a case for Draymond Greenat +600 since he will likely be a distributor on offense tallying triple-double type numbers as well as contributing to slowing Kawhi Leonard down defensively. However, I'd be genuinely surprised if they didn't give it to Curry if the Warriors win it all. In theory, it's a cheaper version of betting the Warriors to win it all. I don't anticipate we see Durant returning (or at least not soon enough to be in the conversation for Finals MVP), and Klay Thompson would just have to go supernova all series long. People already have forgotten that Curry just averaged 37/8/7 in the Western Conference finals. He's on a mission, and if you like Golden State to win the series anyway, then I think Curry at -140 is the best option available.



Kezirian: In my eyes, the Warriors (at full strength) are the greatest team in NBA history. However, with so much unknown surrounding Durant's calf injury, I am having a hard time determining just how much I want to hammer the champs. Even if Durant does not play, I think the price is cheap. Golden State has lost one playoff series in the past five years. I understand the allure of an underdog, but I also have seen plenty of underdog tickets in the trash. To me, this just feels like all those bettors who tried to find value fading Floyd Mayweather during his prime run.


By now we know the stat: Golden State is 31-1 in its past 32 games (21-7-4 ATS) when Curry plays but Durant does not. The Warriors are the better team in this matchup, although I would prefer a healthy Durant. The Raptors are a strong defensive team, but Golden State will warrant a much different strategy than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee did. I imagine the Dubs will initially focus on Marc Gasol and force him into switches, much like the Warriors did with Enes Kanter in the Western Conference finals. If double-teams come to Curry and Thompson, then Green becomes the facilitator and attacks from the free throw line. If the Raptors implement a more athletic lineup without Gasol, then they must switch all picks and stay attached to the Splash Brothers. That is much easier said than done.


Kawhi Leonard is an absolute beast, but the Raptors rely so heavily on him that they become too one-dimensional on offense. The Raptors just cannot afford scoring droughts, and I anticipate too many to overcome. Additionally, I do not see Golden State losing at home, so this series is essentially over if (when) the Warriors win one of the first two games.
Pick: Golden State -300



Fortenbaugh: This series opened Saturday night priced at Golden State -275/Toronto +225 before some significant Warriors action forced a lightning-quick adjustment to Golden State -300/Toronto +250, and for good reason, as the defending champs are unequivocally the best road team in the business. Under head coach Steve Kerr over the past five postseasons, Golden State has recorded 30 road victories -- the most in a five-year span in NBA playoff history -- as well as at least one road win in 22 consecutive postseason series.


Additionally, Curry & Co. concluded the 2018-19 regular season ranked tied for first in the NBA in road wins (27), first in offensive rating when playing on the road (115.1), first in net rating when playing on the road (+6.4), first in effective field-goal percentage on the road (56.4 percent) and first in true shooting percentage on the road (59.5 percent).


My initial thought was to pass on the series now but get involved at a reduced price in the event the Warriors lost Game 1. But then I remembered the fact that Golden State is a sensational 18-1 in Game 1s of a playoff series under Kerr, so the current price of -300 is only going to climb following a Dubs win in Game 1. In that event, I might as well beat the move.


Pick: Golden State -300




Schultz: Fatigue has to play a factor at some point, right? Kawhi Leonard has played 100 minutes more than Stephen Curry in the playoffs and 66 more than any other Warrior. And Leonard will not only be tasked with scoring in the NBA Finals, but he will have to defend Curry as well -- and Klay Thompson at times. This is concerning, especially given the Splash Brothers' relentless off-ball movement. In fact, Curry and Thompson rank eighth and second, respectively, in total mileage per game in the playoffs. The amount of screens they draw both on and off the ball means Leonard will have to do more running than he did against the Bucks. To be sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo posed a unique threat, but he is more predictable to guard, both in terms of shot selection and catch location (generally top of key or left side). The Warriors don't have home-court in this series, but they are the No. 1 offensive efficiency team in basketball on the road.


Pick: Warriors in 6