[Optional]

Qualifying Saturday 9.00am
Race Sunday 9.10am
Pre race betting markets close when first practice starts at 5.00am Thursday ET


I don't feel strong enough to bet anything big before practice this race but here's what I've been thinking looking at odds.

In recent years you always see talk about how Red bull or Ferrari have been fast in the final twisty section of the Barcelona track (previous race) and that means they will be best at Monaco. And I think its been correct most of the time.

But this year Mercedes were faster in sector 3 at Barca. Pundits suggesting that means they are now great in slow corners as well as everywhere else. Verstappen said something like that in an interview too, that Merc are good in slow corners too now.

I really don't see the Mercedes suddenly being super at Monaco though. They still have the long wheelbase car they always claim does not suit the track. Also, they will be using the softest 3 compound Pirelli tyres for the first time this year and we don’t know how they will perform for who.

Anyway I think Hamilton +120 is no value, same with Bottas +250 in the other Mercedes.

I think Verstappen +400 in the Red Bull is a serious chance, but a bit disappointed with the odds. (although that probably means I am right too)

I have no belief in Gasly +2000 in the other Red Bull at any odds.

Vettel +1600 and LeClerc +1600 seem like super value... but really I think if it isn't a Merc it will be Verstappen. Ricciardo in Red Bull took all the headlines last year but Max was looking a chance to challenge him in quali before he made a mistake and started last. I think Max has business to do here this year.

Hamilton has been beaten by his team mate here most years in the Merc. Bottas +150 to beat him seems like value to me too.

Think longshots for fastest lap are one of the best chances of year cashing here. But early odds reflect that with a dozen drivers under +6000 this week. I like the Renault and Haas drivers plus Raikkonen for it most right now. Kimi @ 250-1 the only one worth bothering with at the odds until we see quali I think though.

On the same note, I think Raikkonen for a top 10 +200 is more like a +110 chance in reality.

Magnussen +280 for a top 6 is worth a flutter at the odds too. It's a track with tight walls where cars make mistakes. Will only take one of the big 3 team drivers hitting a wall and I think he will be best of the rest.


leans in bold

Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix Thu 5/23 5:00AM
Lewis Hamilton	+120
Valtteri Bottas	+250
Max Verstappen	+400
Charles Leclerc	+1600
Sebastian Vettel	+1600
Pierre Gasly	+2000
Romain Grosjean	+100000
Daniel Ricciardo	+100000
Kevin Magnussen	+100000
Nico Hulkenberg	+125000
Alexander Albon	+200000
Kimi Raikkonen	+200000
Lando Norris	+200000
Daniil Kvyat	+200000
Carlos Sainz	+200000
Lance Stroll	+250000
Sergio Perez	+250000
Antonio Giovinazzi	+300000
George Russell	+700000
Robert Kubica	+700000

Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish Thu 5/23 5:00AM
Lewis Hamilton	-700
Valtteri Bottas	-500
Max Verstappen	-300
Sebastian Vettel	-250
Charles Leclerc	-200
Pierre Gasly	-200
Nico Hulkenberg	+200
Daniel Ricciardo	+225
Kevin Magnussen	+280
Romain Grosjean	+300
Alexander Albon	+350
Daniil Kvyat	+350
Carlos Sainz	+500
Lando Norris	+600
Kimi Raikkonen	+700
Sergio Perez	+800
Lance Stroll	+1000
Antonio Giovinazzi	+1200
George Russell	+7000
Robert Kubica	+10000

Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish Thu 5/23 5:00AM
Lewis Hamilton	-1000
Valtteri Bottas	-800
Max Verstappen	-600
Sebastian Vettel	-600
Charles Leclerc	-400
Pierre Gasly	-350
Nico Hulkenberg	-180
Daniel Ricciardo	-175
Kevin Magnussen	-175
Romain Grosjean	-170
Alexander Albon	-125
Daniil Kvyat	-120
Carlos Sainz	+120
Lando Norris	+130
Kimi Raikkonen	+200
Sergio Perez	+200
Antonio Giovinazzi	+200
Lance Stroll	+250
George Russell	+2000
Robert Kubica	+2500

Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Fastest Lap Thu 5/23 5:00AM
Lewis Hamilton	+275
Valtteri Bottas	+350
Max Verstappen	+450
Sebastian Vettel	+550
Charles Leclerc	+600
Pierre Gasly	+600
Romain Grosjean	+3500
Daniel Ricciardo	+3700
Kevin Magnussen	+4000
Nico Hulkenberg	+4000
Daniil Kvyat	+5000
Alexander Albon	+6000
Carlos Sainz	+10000
Lando Norris	+15000
Kimi Raikkonen	+20000
Lance Stroll	+25000
Sergio Perez	+25000
Antonio Giovinazzi	+50000
George Russell	+125000
Robert Kubica	+125000

odds from 5dimes

[unlearn]

Magnussen group winner +325 (Dan R, Kimi, Perez)
I feel this is much better value than top 6, no?

[Hot Jerry]

WNT - only !!

[semibluff]

Magnussen group winner +325 (Dan R, Kimi, Perez)
I feel this is much better value than top 6, no?

I wouldn't.
Barcelona is an aero track where cars need high speed cornering. The Haas has great aerodynamics and Haas dominated the battle for 'best of the rest' in all practice sessions in Spain. They should have dominated for 7th and 8th positions in the race. Monaco is a circuit where mechanical grip is king. A great aero package means very little here. 2015 was the best example of this. In 2015 The Williams had a great aero package. In Spain both cars qualified top 10 and both finished top 6 and on the lead lap. At the back in that race were the 2 Marussias, 3 & 4 laps off the lead. In Monaco 2 weeks later the Williams struggled against the Marussias they had lapped twice in the previous race and couldn't out-qualify them. I wouldn't rule Haas out here but I like Toro Rosso, Racing Point, and McLaren for 4th, 5th & 6th best over Haas and Renault in a fight for 7th and 8th best. Monaco times will be extremely close together and 7th to 16th might only be 3 tenths of a second apart. When it's that close the order could be anything. It's tough to guess what the Alfas will do. They haven't been good here as Sauber but Räikkönen has a good Monaco record. Personally I really don't like Magnussen at this circuit. Grosjean outperforms him here. H-2-H i'd have Grosjean -130 vs Magnussen +110. Might be bigger than that. I haven't seen the market you're referring to but if it's Perez, Ricciardo, Räikkönen, and Magnussen I would have Perez favourite and track specialist Ricciardo a close 2nd favourite.

Monaco is my least favourite F1 track and my record here absolutely stinks. Magnussen will probably romp away with 7th now and make me look worse than usual. lol. Good luck if you've backed him.

[Optional]

Magnussen group winner +325 (Dan R, Kimi, Perez)
I feel this is much better value than top 6, no?

Yeah for sure better than the top 6 bet. Nice find. Perez looking no chance for that based on P1 as well.



The order is about as expected so far after first practice, for what that is worth on Thursday morning.

Top 3 are within 7/100ths and Ferrari looking behind at this stage.

[Duckshit]

Hamilton

Because of the dead guy.

[jjgold]

Too much chalk in the sport

Why not just race 5 guys weekly??

Nobody else has
Chance

[unlearn]

The group bet was at Bovada before P1. Their F1 market is much more extensive than dimes. Aside from usually having an early win market (in this case weeks in advance), they have group bets, fast laps, quali and race h2hs up before p1. One of the 2 reasons I keep funded there (nascar fadelays)

[Duckshit]

Hamilton

Because of the dead guy.

I may have said this lightheartedly BUT I'm very serious. This Will be the largest wager of the Weekend for me.

[Duckshit]

$100....lol

[cincinnatikid513]

curius when was the last time hamilton did not finish in top 10 a f1 race might be a good otters bet hamilton,top 10

[unlearn]

curius when was the last time hamilton did not finish in top 10 a f1 race might be a good otters bet hamilton,top 10

Last year, Austrian GP. Fuel pressure problem I believe took out both Mercs

[tucks]

Hamilton +110

Practice today looks like Mercedes far away best cars. Trying to get some incase he wins pole and price goes way up

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Check this out

https://i.imgur.com/DRTXO8E.gifv

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck, Opti. Great info, per usual.

[Optional]

Mercedes did look very good in P2, in particular on the Medium tires.

But they weren't so great on the Soft tires and neither LeClerc or Verstappen got a chance to set a fast time on the soft tires to actually compare to the Mercs.

The Alfa cars both looked impressive. Kimi Top 10 +200 was the right call (now -105 at 5Dimes)

Haas had a few problems but Magnussen still looking a decent chance for top 6, steady at +275. Rookie Albon +275 the main danger by the looks.

And Verstappen odds have shortened to +340 for the win.


* Mercedes took 3 or 4 laps to get the Soft tires into best working condition to set their fastest laps in P2. There is a chance they will have trouble getting them to their best in final qualifying runs for pole.

Adding .5u to Verstappen for Pole Position and .1u each on Vettel and LeClerc

Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner Sat 5/25 6:00AM
Lewis Hamilton	-105
Valtteri Bottas	+150
Max Verstappen	+450
Charles Leclerc	+2500
Sebastian Vettel	+2500

Practice 2 Results

Pos	Driver	Team	Time	Gap
1	Hamilton	Mercedes	1:11.118	104.961 mph
2	Bottas	Mercedes	1:11.199	0.081
3	Vettel	Ferrari	1:11.881	0.763
4	Gasly	Red Bull	1:11.938	0.820
5	Albon	Toro Rosso	1:12.031	0.913
6	Verstappen	Red Bull	1:12.052	0.934
7	Magnussen	Haas	1:12.174	1.056
8	Giovinazzi	Alfa Romeo	1:12.239	1.121
9	Raikkonen	Alfa Romeo	1:12.342	1.224
10	Leclerc	Ferrari	1:12.350	1.232
11	Grosjean	Haas	1:12.392	1.274
12	Norris	McLaren	1:12.393	1.275
13	Sainz	McLaren	1:12.419	1.301
14	Kvyat	Toro Rosso	1:12.577	1.459
15	Perez	Racing Point	1:12.752	1.634
16	Hulkenberg	Renault	1:12.872	1.754
17	Ricciardo	Renault	1:12.888	1.770
18	Stroll	Racing Point	1:14.558	3.440
19	Russell	Williams	1:15.052	3.934
20	Kubica	Williams	1:15.146	4.028

They won't be back on track again until Saturday morning.

[unlearn]

I will be curious to see what the group prices reopen at. I think I killed that # on Magnussen

[Optional]

I will be curious to see what the group prices reopen at. I think I killed that # on Magnussen

Hell yeah. Looking like you have a +325 H2H v Kimi now

Bovada sound like they are pretty good for motorsport.

[unlearn]

Hell yeah. Looking like you have a +325 H2H v Kimi now

Bovada sound like they are pretty good for motorsport.

The win market generally stinks for the top Cup guys compared to other books but they offer some markets that 5d doesn't. Plenty of arb opportunities with dimes h2hs too. I'm a fan of the (somtimes) parlayable winners off openers as well as correlated h2h fadelays as you know.

[semibluff]

[lonegambler23]

fade the hamilton dream