1. #1
    Hman
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    Best UFC 237 bets: Andrade vs. Namajunas 👊

    Best UFC 237 bets: Andrade vs. Namajunas

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    Last week we saw Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone further prove why he is one of the must-watch fighters of the era. He is a fighter who is never intimidated and always game, despite being a frequent underdog. Watching the trajectory and soft-spoken poise of Rose Namajunas, we could be seeing a future legend in the making, thanks to many similarities to Cerrone.


    Unfortunately for "Thug" Rose -- despite twice defeating the seemingly unbeatable former champ, Joanna Jedrzejczyk -- she must now defend her title in an away match in Brazil on Saturday night. She's taking on a worthy No. 1 contender in Jessica Andrade and must also deal with the difficulties of a rowdy crowd in Rio de Janeiro. It will be a daunting challenge for the champion, but that's also how MMA legends are made.


    Let's examine the UFC 237 main event and find some betting value elsewhere on the card.

    Strawweight title matchup: Champion Rose Namajunas (+100) vs No. 1 Jessica Andrade (-120)

    Tale Of The Tape

    JESSICA ANDRADE ROSE NAMAJUNAS
    Last fight weight class Strawweight Strawweight
    Current age 27 26
    Height (in) 61 65
    Reach (in) 73 69.5
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 155 102
    Standup striking offense
    Career knockdown ratio
    (Scored : Received)
    2:1 2:0
    Distance knockdown rate 0.6% 1.3%
    Head jab accuracy 53% 23%
    Head power accuracy 36% 36%
    Total standup strike ratio 1.1 0.9
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 64% 80%
    Distance knockdown
    defense ("Chin")
    100% 100%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts/minute
    (Standing/clinch)
    0.51 0.37
    Takedown accuracy 59% 59%
    Advances per
    takedown/top control
    1.0 1.2
    Opponent takedown attempts 40 11
    Takedown defense 75% 4%
    Share of total ground
    time in control
    78% 72%
    Submission attempts
    per trip to ground
    0.12 0.27


    Namajunas is again on pace to be a rare champion underdog heading into her third consecutive title fight, at plus money. While we already know that underdog champs make for a good bet, we're not accounting for Andrade's home advantage. It's more interesting that while the market has usually loved Andrade, it hasn't always respected Namajunas. On paper, they're very close.


    ​​​​​​​Both women are gifted strikers, willing to trade leather with high accuracy. But Namajunas exits those exchanges having taken fewer punches in return than her opponents. Andrade likes to be aggressive and control the pace of stand-up but is willing to allow opponents to land punches while she's on the way in. In terms of shot selection, each fighter is primarily a head-striker, with a similarly lower mix of leg and body kicks. That means from round to round we should see Andrade initiating but both women finding targets throughout the furious punching exchanges.


    Should Namajunas time her counters and exits properly, Andrade might end up pushing forward on an uphill battle that works against her. Namajunas has stood in the pocket against the best strikers in the division, including the ultra-aggressive pace of Jedrzejczyk. The champ's high-altitude training will help her last five full rounds of high-paced action, but she won't be able to let her guard down for a minute against Andrade.


    A wild card here is the ground game. Namajunas has shown some flash in her submissions, and two of Andrade's four UFC losses have come by submission. It will be interesting to see if Namajunas initiates takedowns, given that Andrade has demonstrated a highly effective guillotine choke. Perhaps Namajunas would be better served using her submissions defensively to avoid being planted on the ground for too long, and thus giving up a valuable round on the cards.


    E+ recommends: The odds are understandably close, and we're only slightly leaning toward Namajunas in an upset. It would be a small-unit play, and the fact that we're not accounting for the fight's location in Brazil makes us even more tentative. But we're hoping Namajunas sticks consistent counters and accelerates the pace of action into the championship rounds. Andrade also can't be too aggressive on the ground, given the submission arsenal of the champ. One way or the other, we're hoping the legend of "Thug" Rose builds and that she adds a rare away-game title defense to her résumé.


    Other fight card value


    E+ recommends: If the Brazil home cage could give anyone a boost, it's former champion Jose Aldo, who is famous for leaping into the home crowd after victories. His opponent, Alexander Volkanovski, is a formidable one, likely willing to stand and trade with Aldo, which makes for a fun striking duel. But unless the opponent is Max Holloway or Conor McGregor, it seems that Aldo can handle all but the most elite strikers in the division, while Volkanovski has never faced a striker on Aldo's level.


    And while we're on the topic of Brazilian former champions, consider an upset pick on Anderson Silva. Yes, we know Silva is well past his prime, but Jared Cannonier isn't a big power striker and has a vulnerable chin. This pairing was likely selected to give Silva a measured and patient chance in front of the home crowd that adores him and will tolerate his odd fighting pace. You'll even get plus money on Silva in Brazil. Just expect a slow start, as both men prefer a feeling-out process and will wait for the opponent to be the aggressor.

  2. #2
    funnyb25
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    I have no opinion on this matter fellas. Was just asked to post.
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  3. #3
    funnyb25
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    Was I close?
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  4. #4
    Hman
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    I wasn't going to post that today, because I DO have an opinion this time


  5. #5
    funnyb25
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  6. #6
    TPowell
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    Cannonier isn't a big power striker? Okay lol

  7. #7
    eddycash
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    No way Jessica Andrade's reach is 73 inches.

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  8. #8
    BIGDAY
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    Volkanovski

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  9. #9
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Volkanovski
    Hahaha Bigday!!!!

    Listen, its Aldo, please dont bet on Volkanovski.

    Ill come back on this very thread and said i told you so.

    Youre on the wrong side here 100%.

    Let me help you out. Best striker? Aldo.

    Volkanovskis takedown? Since aldo has 92% tdd fighting the best fighters in the world...GOOOOOOD LUCK BIGDAY. Good luck.

    so....1 + 1 = 2

    Aldo for the win. How difficult can it be ?

  10. #10
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Cannonier isn't a big power striker? Okay lol
    id say Cannonier is the top 3 heaviest hitter at 185 no doubt in my mind...
    he was literally a HW just not to long ago lmao, guy hits like a brick house

  11. #11
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    No way Jessica Andrade's reach is 73 inches.
    her reach is 62 inches lmao
    73 is like a welterweight male

  12. #12
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    her reach is 62 inches lmao
    73 is like a welterweight male
    Is 10 inches away from struve and jon jones? Sounds reasonable nooooot

  13. #13
    Thrilla
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  14. #14
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Volkanovski
    EZ Cash!

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  15. #15
    209 Life
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    SBR graded Volk bet at loss

    Ticket #: 4157753
    May 11 11:25 PM
    MU STRAIGHT BET
    [6537] ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI +120
    (ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI vrs JOSE ALDO)
    130.00 / 156.00 -130.00 LOSE
    LOSE
    05/11/2019 12:58 PM

  16. #16
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by 209 Life View Post
    SBR graded Volk bet at loss

    Ticket #: 4157753
    May 11 11:25 PM
    MU STRAIGHT BET
    [6537] ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI +120
    (ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI vrs JOSE ALDO)
    130.00 / 156.00 -130.00 LOSE
    LOSE
    05/11/2019 12:58 PM
    We ain’t takin no for an answer.

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  17. #17
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Volkanovski
    You called it man!

    Congrats. Didnt see that coming at all!

  18. #18
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    You called it man!

    Congrats. Didnt see that coming at all!


    All is well my friend.

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  19. #19
    jjgold
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    Elk Sharp this sport


    Everything else dumb fuk

  20. #20
    JacketFan81
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    Leg kick knockout on Anderson Silva. What is the world coming to?

  21. #21
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Hahaha Bigday!!!!

    Listen, its Aldo, please dont bet on Volkanovski.

    Ill come back on this very thread and said i told you so.

    Youre on the wrong side here 100%.

    Let me help you out. Best striker? Aldo.

    Volkanovskis takedown? Since aldo has 92% tdd fighting the best fighters in the world...GOOOOOOD LUCK BIGDAY. Good luck.

    so....1 + 1 = 2

    Aldo for the win. How difficult can it be ?
    Can't believe this moron almost talked BigDay out of a great bet. BigDay needs this more than anyone.

    100%? 100% bjpenn85 is a fukking idiot.

  22. #22
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Can't believe this moron almost talked BigDay out of a great bet. BigDay needs this more than anyone.

    100%? 100% bjpenn85 is a fukking idiot.
    Outcomes and whos inherently the best fighter is not the same. Challenging concept for a simpleton like you. Let me give an example since you have such issues with this concept.

    Whos best, Tim Means or Nico Price?

    Whos best, Jose Aldo or Volkanovsky?

    But who won both of those fights?

    Stick to posting ufc connected videos waterboy, and let real bettors do the thinking.

    I gave BIGDAY a creds for the correct pick anyway, as i am indeed a man of honour, and not the lord of huffyness, like you.

    Your beloved enemy

    bjpenn85

  23. #23
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Outcomes and whos inherently the best fighter is not the same. Challenging concept for a simpleton like you. Let me give an example since you have such issues with this concept.

    Whos best, Tim Means or Nico Price?

    Whos best, Jose Aldo or Volkanovsky?

    But who won both of those fights?

    Stick to posting ufc connected videos waterboy, and let real bettors do the thinking.

    I gave BIGDAY a creds for the correct pick anyway, as i am indeed a man of honour, and not the lord of huffyness, like you.

    Your beloved enemy

    bjpenn85
    WTF are you talking about. This is your quote >>> "Youre on the wrong side here 100%." LMAO

    Like I said bjpenn85 100% fukking idiot.

    This fool hasn't got any idea about value. If you check out his picks thread one can see he has a positive win/lose record but it's nothing but juice plays. Doesn't include his average stake or most importantly his return on investment %. Delusional Amateur.

    If it were up to this fool he'd bet Aldo even at -10.000. He is the better fighter after all. lol

    UFC connected? Unlike you I provide so people can think for themselves. But hey a selfish prick like you don't want people to evolve. This forum doesn't belong to you so people help only you win money. You delusional selfish dumb fukk. Fukk outta here with your fake ass compliments.

  24. #24
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    WTF are you talking about. This is your quote >>> "Youre on the wrong side here 100%." LMAO

    Like I said bjpenn85 100% fukking idiot.

    This fool hasn't got any idea about value. If you check out his picks thread one can see he has a positive win/lose record but it's nothing but juice plays. Doesn't include his average stake or most importantly his return on investment %. Delusional Amateur.

    If it were up to this fool he'd bet Aldo even at -10.000. He is the better fighter after all. lol

    UFC connected? Unlike you I provide so people can think for themselves. But hey a selfish prick like you don't want people to evolve. This forum doesn't belong to you so people help only you win money. You delusional selfish dumb fukk. Fukk outta here with your fake ass compliments.

    Got this email sunday morning!

    Just copy pasted it from my email, sorry for the format.


    Hey
    bjpenn85.

    After our Trading Department has reviewed your account, we regret to inform you that while our online services are still available to you, there will be restrictions on all your future placed games and the End Game feature is no longer available to you .

    Should you wish to continue to use our services, you will no longer qualify for the following sports offers and promotions: Best odds guaranteed, Official odds guaranteed, 365 International - Fixed odds on Winner - the best odds from the odds given at the time you placed the game, or our latest odds, 0-0 - Money back, Early payout, Extra round Extra chance and all multiplayer or accumulator bonuses.

    This will not affect any bets you have already placed under these offers.

    See a complete list of your available sports offers by logging in and selecting Offers or Promotions.

    With best regards,
    Team bet365


    You decide....am i an amateur, or a pro?

  25. #25
    bjpenn85
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    Reached any final conclusion here, Thrilla?

    Why does the bookies shut down my account?

    Bad ROI?

    Whats your comeback? Fake news? Use Donald Trumps tactic?

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