2019 NBA playoffs: Tonight's best bets

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


With the 2019 NBA playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- will be here each day throughout the postseason, giving their best bets for the evening's games.


All odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise listed. As always, shop around for the best price.

Toronto Raptors (-2) at Philadelphia 76ers

Total: 214
Fortenbaugh: For me, this is strictly a contrarian play courtesy of that 36-point annihilation the Raptors handed the Sixers in Game 5. The world watched that Kid Dynamite-esque uppercut unfold in real time, and now Brett Brown is coaching for his job while Joel Embiid adjusts to a transformation from the Prince of Philly following Game 3 to Public Enemy No. 1 Tuesday night. The public is going to love the Raptors in this spot, which is why I'm heading in the other direction.


For the Sixers, it's all about that fight-or-flight response that's programmed into every human being on the planet. Will they throw a counterpunch in response to that Game 5 embarrassment, or are they busy booking flights to the Caribbean? Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are gunning for mega contracts and Embiid is looking to restore his tarnished reputation. I'm betting Philly shows up to fight.


Pick: 76ers +2


Schultz: Toronto is the more complete team with the most complete player, Kawhi Leonard. In his first playoff series with the Raptors, Leonard was sensational against a stout Magic defense, averaging nearly 28 PPG on 55.6 percent shooting (53.8 percent from 3). Flanked on the wing by an emerging star in Pascal Siakam (22.6 PPG, 53.3 percent vs. Orlando), he has an ideal running mate who excels off the ball as both a cutter and finisher.


Embiid, the Philadelphia center, will have his hands full with former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol, whose main responsibility will be to wear him down. The Raptors are one of the few teams who can send an assortment of high-level perimeter defenders with size (Leonard, Siakam, Danny Green and Norman Powell) at both Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Better yet, are we so certain that Embiid is fully healthy -- or close enough to it -- to deal with the NBA's second-ranked defense?


Pick: Raptors -2


Kezirian: I side with Toronto, but this is not going to be a beatdown like we saw in Game 5. However, there are just too many moving parts for me to back Philadelphia. Joel Embiid has battled illness and injury in these playoffs. I just never know which version shows up. Ben Simmons is completely unreliable. Tobias Harris is inconsistent. Outside of Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors could not have played worse in Games 3 and 4. I expect a much stronger showing from his supporting cast.
Pick: Raptors -2

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers(-3.5)

Total: 215.5
Johnson: It's no secret at this point in the series that Denver has exploited Portland's weaknesses. Enes Kanter, for example, somebody the Thunder could not take advantage of, posted a net rating of minus-35.5 in Game 5 and minus-22.3 in Game 4. Over the first three games in this series, the Blazers were close to break-even in the minutes Kanter played. Now the Nuggets have arguably played him off of the floor (like most figured the Thunder would be able to do).


Mike Malone deserves a ton of credit for the adjustments he has made, not only in this series but also the decision to put Gary Harris on Derrick White in the first round and move Will Barton to the bench for Torrey Craig in San Antonio. Malone has pushed the right buttons, but it also helps when he has so many more at his disposal to push. The NBA playoffs are about matchups and edges -- and, ultimately, execution. The Nuggets have more viable options to counter Portland's attacks, including the drastic mismatch in the frontcourt with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. I tweeted this before the series started, and while it took a few games for Denver to put it on full display, it's clear they are the better team:


Remember, the Nuggets were a quadruple-overtime slugfest from ending the series in five games. It sounds like I'm advocating for a Denver bet here in Game 6, but I'm not. My projection from a sheer numbers perspective is Portland -3.9 with a total of 214.1. Damian Lillard could still go off, a la the Thunder series, or maybe Terry Stotts decides to limit Kanter's minutes and negative impact by going small more often (something I would at least try for a portion of the game). But again, the NBA playoffs are about matchups and adjustments, and it really looks like Denver has figured out this Blazers team. I'm passing on the game, but if you subjectively forced me to pick a side, I would go with the Nuggets.


Pick: Pass