1. #1
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,429
    Betpoints: 1222

    Best bets for NBA on Christmas Day 🏀

    Best bets for NBA on Christmas Day

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    The NBA on Christmas Day is a tradition that dates back more than 70 years. In more recent times, it has become a showcase of some of the biggest names and best teams in the NBA on a day in which the league takes center stage without competition from any of the other major American sports.


    This year's slate of five games stretches from coast to coast, from noon to late in the night, and with so many high-profile matchups, the opportunity to find value in each betting market is ripe. We've asked a few of our NBA experts -- Doug Kezirian, Jordan Schultz and Andre Snellings -- to give their best bets for the day.


    Lines displayed are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday afternoon. As always, shop around for the best price.


    Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-9)

    8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)
    Total: 235
    Snellings: On the season, the Lakers have an average scoring margin of plus-1.8 and the Warriors a margin of plus-5.0. Even with the Dubs at home, they shouldn't be giving nine points to a team like the Lakers. In fact, the Warriors have won only one game by that large of a scoring margin in their past seven efforts. While they always have blowout potential, LeBron James and the Lakers are likely to bring their A-game as well on the big stage, and thus keep the game competitive.


    Pick: Lakers +9


    Milwaukee Bucks (-10) at New York Knicks

    Noon ET (ESPN)
    Total: 227
    Snellings: The Christmas Day games are the closest thing we'll get to an actual representation of each team's full strength during the regular season, because every team is rested (there were no games on Christmas Eve) and every game gets the national spotlight. As such, these teams should perform to level. On the season, the Bucks lead the NBA with a plus-8.4 scoring margin per game, while the Knicks are among the basement teams at minus-7.3. Even with the Knicks getting a boost at home, the Bucks should be getting more than 10 points.


    Pick: Bucks -10


    Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-4)

    5:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
    Total: 223.5
    Kezirian: Brad Stevens has tinkered with his rotations and now seems to have found the right combination. Since Gordon Hayward was relegated to a reserve role, Boston is 10-6 ATS. That includes four straight covers with Al Horfordstarting and healthy. Plus, Stevens has the best cover percentage in ESPN's database, which dates back to the 1990-91 season (minimum 175 games). I'll side with Boston, which clearly had an inspired effort on Sunday, following its players-only meeting.


    Pick: Celtics -4

    Schultz: Joel Embiid has grown frustrated with the Celtics "kicking Philly's ass," and his Christmas wishes of a win over Boston will finally be fulfilled. The Celtics are struggling right now, with three straight losses to Detroit, Phoenix and Milwaukee before finally notching a win against Charlotte on Sunday. The reason for their struggles? Repeated defensive lapses, specifically in the half court.


    This is a real problem against Embiid & Co., who gashed the Knicks and Raptors for 131 and 126 points, respectively, last week. As Embiid -- a legitimate MVP candidate -- and Ben Simmons continue to find their rhythm with Jimmy Butler, expect the Sixers to do more of the same. The most important mission for the 76ers will be forcing Celtics All-Star center Al Horford to guard the perimeter and plenty of pick-and-roll as he works through his minutes restriction.


    Pick: 76ers +4


    Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz (-6)

    10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
    Total: 214.5


    Snellings: On the season, the Trail Blazers are 19-14 with an average scoring margin of plus-0.7, while the Jazz are 16-18 with a plus-1.0 average scoring margin. The Jazz have played better of late, including a 30-point blowout win over the Trail Blazers last week, but that game stands out as an outlier for both teams. Outside of that game, the Trail Blazers have won four straight, including a win over the Toronto Raptors and road victories over both the Clippers and Grizzlies. The Jazz shouldn't be giving this many points in this game.


    Pick: Trail Blazers +6
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Jayvegas420

  2. #2
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,429
    Betpoints: 1222

    No opinion on this material fellas, just posting this for others

  3. #3
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Golden St -9

  4. #4
    thomorino
    thomorino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-17
    Posts: 45,842

    The Celtics have Horford back, totally different team with him, Horford does a great job on Simmons too, Boston should roll. Philly still has no bench

  5. #5
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Phila is overrated

    Boston will blow them out

  6. #6
    MinnesotaFats
    MinnesotaFats's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-10
    Posts: 14,757
    Betpoints: 1664

    Guy loves road teams on xmas?

    IDK

    Thinking of laying the wood each game untill one hits, doubling after a loss

  7. #7
    Venom72
    Venom72's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-05-16
    Posts: 2,041
    Betpoints: 974

    Bucks and celtics

  8. #8
    Deenoz
    Deenoz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-18
    Posts: 692
    Betpoints: 323

    thanks for the post Hman

  9. #9
    Fred The Hammer
    Fred The Hammer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-13-13
    Posts: 11,496
    Betpoints: 8383

    Heritage has a promotion tomorrow. Bet the sides on Milwaukee/Knicks up to $250 and you can get a refund at halftime if you want.

    Seems kind of crazy? I think you have to throw it on the Knicks and see if somehow the Bucks sleepwalk and NY is up by 10-12 by halftime.

    I'm throwing in $250 on New York +10
    Last edited by Fred The Hammer; 12-24-18 at 09:16 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    Jayvegas420 gave Fred The Hammer 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  10. #10
    t-wizzle
    t-wizzle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-09
    Posts: 38,099
    Betpoints: 2191

    I have doubts about whether the sixers can beat Boston.

  11. #11
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    I love 4 games
    More tomorrow

  12. #12
    Jayvegas420
    Vegas Baby!
    Jayvegas420's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-11
    Posts: 28,148
    Betpoints: 15111

    Knicks/Bucks under 227.5 (still looking into why this line went from 5 to 10)
    Houston/OKC under 221.5 (5mike5 & BigDaddy are both on the over, so this is about as close to a as you'll find)
    Sixers ML (+155) OVER Celtics (twizzle doesn't like it but, I still like his OVER 223 pick)
    Lakers (+9.5) OVER GS (with the exception of Clev & Minn dubs haven't covered DD since October)
    《Also baldy is on GS...'nuff said》

    I will check back in at 6:43pm today & let you know what we will betting all our profits on in the late game!

    Merry Christmas

  13. #13
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 94,055
    Betpoints: 7624

    Only play worth taking is OKC ml unless you think State wants to shit on James
    Points Awarded:

    Jayvegas420 gave lakerboy 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  14. #14
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Only play worth taking is OKC ml unless you think State wants to shit on James
    I hope they shit all over him and I can’t really root for my lakers I hate lebron so much he literally has ruined them for me and I have been laker fan my whole life

  15. #15
    DrunkHorseplayer
    Redskins forever
    DrunkHorseplayer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-10
    Posts: 7,167
    Betpoints: 19551

    I'm thinking about Portland and the points; don't see anything else.

  16. #16
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    May seem like an odd bet to start the day but I seem to recall the first game is an early east start and teams come out sleep walking and shooting bricks, playing lazy offense... not ready to push the ball

    bucks knicks first q or first half under if you do any quarter betting. teams could wake up in 2q so 1q bet may be safer than 1h under

  17. #17
    mhoefler
    Update your status
    mhoefler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-29-14
    Posts: 315
    Betpoints: 15904

    Since 2005, the under has gone 35-20-1 on Christmas Day, covering by nearly seven points on average, according to our Bet Labs data.

    The earlier the game is played, the better. The first three games of the day — starting between noon and 5:30 p.m. ET — have gone 26-9.
    Points Awarded:

    Jaswave125 gave mhoefler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  18. #18
    GzaTheGenius
    GzaTheGenius's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-12-13
    Posts: 4,162
    Betpoints: 15169

    6ers are 16-3 at home, 6-9 on the roaf

    ibnb never bet the NBA but Celtics ML looks solid

  19. #19
    5teamparlay
    WINNING!!!
    5teamparlay's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-06
    Posts: 989
    Betpoints: 1223

    Bucks—

    Knicks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

  20. #20
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,947
    Betpoints: 28986

    Pass

  21. #21
    allcourt
    allcourt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-18
    Posts: 2
    Betpoints: 122

    I would tend to agree with you, sir. Historically, I have had good luck betting NBA unders on MLK day.

  22. #22
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    the bucks knicks first quarter under 55.5 was +110 on BM about 5 min before noon eastern

    38 points scored with 1:35 left in 1st q

    cashing in on spending my time watching garbage noon christmas games in years past

    too easy

    who else riding these unders till we get hurt today

  23. #23
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 94,055
    Betpoints: 7624

    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    I hope they shit all over him and I can’t really root for my lakers I hate lebron so much he literally has ruined them for me and I have been laker fan my whole life
    Totally agree. Feel exactly the same way

  24. #24
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 25,799
    Betpoints: 5354

    Rockets suck ass

  25. #25
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    1Q under goes 5 for 5

    too bad i am too dumb and over think things to much to keep riding it past the first 3 games

    1q under 57.5 in celtics game 32-25 score. jj reduke hits all 3's but misses a free throw late in quarter... yup. gambling at it's finest

    1st q rockets game only 44 pts scored in 1st q... easiest win. but first half hit 112...anyone who had under 112.5 sweating it out. if u had under 112... you got a bad line. final somehow landed at 222... leaving more people to end up pushing if you had a bad line.

    - NEVER bet on OKC on the road vs a good team or a hot team. confirmed once again.

    celtics full game only went over because irving didn't want to lose and jj reduke can easily hit first quarter 3's but can't make a shot to win a game.

    christmas 2019. under city! can't wait

    i have no opinion on portland utah 2h... the teams suck

  26. #26
    thomorino
    thomorino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-17
    Posts: 45,842

    The Utah-Portland first quarter should have gone over, Utah was 080 from the 3 point line and 2-8 from the foul line, the number went under by 4.5 points, 1q betting is always high variance.

  27. #27
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    The Utah-Portland first quarter should have gone over, Utah was 080 from the 3 point line and 2-8 from the foul line, the number went under by 4.5 points, 1q betting is always high variance.
    not with the 2 earliest games... they almost always go under on XMAS. it's a special bet on a special day

    46 pts knicks bucks line was 55.5 a whole 10 pts short of losing

    rockets okc with all the scorers and 3 pt shooters... 44 points with a final second 3 from harden. 1q was 56.5 if i recall correctly. a whole 13 points short of losing.

    only boston celtics game should of went over the number in the 1st q but of course... the players found dumb ways to mess up and miss enough free throws and chuck enough long range 3's or 2's and miss them instead of utilizing talent and driving to setup a mate for a nice shot

    overall. christmas day first quarter under bets based on BM lines went 5 for 5... unless 57 was ever posted for okc game (i never saw it while watching it last 15 or so b4 it was taken off board) then you pushed.

Top