[jjgold]

funny thread

Comedy is fun though

[Mackballs]

So many guys still think they'll be the guy to defy the odds.

[jjgold]

Yes and leads to life destruction

So many guys still think they'll be the guy to defy the odds.

[reigle9]

I've got one book that let's me parlay motorsport head to heads with the same driver losing multiple legs. In a 3 legger, that guy wrecks early and you get at least 3x what you should have won. I pointed it out and they said it was fine. Asked them to double check with a manager, and got ok again. Blows me away they pay out on them still.

this might be worth me figuring out how to use a vpn next season...i believe that's how people use books in other countries, i'm sure you know how to do it

did you hit any of those correlated parlays last season? i remember you posting them but am bo'd by the time of results

it's really pretty amazing they let you do it...wouldnt parlaying 3 harvick hth's pay more than his win odds?

[danshan11]

the problem with VPN accounts at books is they work until they dont. you never know what day it will all come down.

[aston]

books shut you down WILLHILL shut me down a few years ago after I went on a hotstreak after only a month

[KVB]

the problem with VPN accounts at books is they work until they dont. you never know what day it will all come down.

So true.

[KVB]

books shut you down WILLHILL shut me down a few years ago after I went on a hotstreak after only a month

So true as well.

Have to spread thin among Will Hill properties and have to use multiple people.

That's how you beat Will Hill without them knowing.

I've said too much.

[jjgold]

the problem with VPN accounts at books is they work until they dont. you never know what day it will all come down.

all books know you use a vpn

[Sam Odom]

need runners in Vegas... ones you can trust

[danshan11]

need runners in Vegas... ones you can trust

how in the world can someone beat the margin and pay runners? Crazy how good some bettors are, its nuts! I am so jealous!

[Sam Odom]

how in the world can someone beat the margin and pay runners?

LOL

Sammy's runner is his youngest Son... works in Vegas

[KVB]

how in the world can someone beat the margin and pay runners? Crazy how good some bettors are, its nuts! I am so jealous!

Bet size.

Also, taking advantage of an inefficient market helps.

[KVB]

all books know you use a vpn

They do, some use it against for convenience.

That's how it used to be, I haven't run into any trouble in a long time, like years.

[Optional]

this might be worth me figuring out how to use a vpn next season...i believe that's how people use books in other countries, i'm sure you know how to do it

did you hit any of those correlated parlays last season? i remember you posting them but am bo'd by the time of results

it's really pretty amazing they let you do it...wouldnt parlaying 3 harvick hth's pay more than his win odds?

They don't let you parlay the same guy to win. Only to lose.

And if not on the Australian electoral roll, you'd need a shitload of genuine ID to get into an Aussie book :\

They care so little about VPNs the books are not even geo-blocked.

I did hit a few but didn't really start playing them until second half of the year and didn't make any huge scores. Ahead on them overall though of course. They are probably what pushed me into profit for a poor year generally on NASCAR.

[kyhawk]

Let me think a sec...NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[jjgold]

Hawk knows

[arie1985]

that to me is just like the same idea of it was my fault because of blah blah, not discounting money management but to me the real thing is edge, do you really really have an edge. You better believe good books have an edge. They dont try and pick who is gonna win, they dont but they do get an edge with the juice and to me I think most of these guys that are good guys probably crushed it pre serious moneyball days on gut and lines were not that sharp but today that game is over, now it is all about the numbers, you can see it, its like the stock market now at 9am NY time the lines start hopping and just before game time is when the regular's come in. I have been taking bets and I will tell you with certainty the bets that come in at 9am CRUSH FLAT OUT CRUSH THE 5 minutes before kickoff bets. I 100% believe you can win long term gambling but I think the only way requires 2 things
1 you got to have an actual edge over the closing number (needs to pay 37 to 1 if the table has 36 squares). an edge on the closing number, yes I think a person could go through and know the jets will win 53% of the time FOR NOW but that line will change if they do and that edge is gone, so you cant pick winners you got to pick lines and beat the line, to me it is the only thing that KINDA makes sense other than booking.
2 you got to have a HUGE HUGE sample size (1000s of games to overcome any BS streaks, runs heaters, market adjustments (like NBA totals early this year))

but guys who think they can pull up oddsshark and see the browns won 4 straight and cover good on cloudy thursdays, they dont have an edge, they just dont, not in this day and time. that would be the same as me grabbing the yahoo finance page and saying oh look at the caps on FB stock and the candle says blah blah yeah I can guess better than the margin what that stock will do, come on get fricken real!

This is definitely a good post, and you are pointing out why it's so hard to make money out of it - it's like guessing the stock market day after day after day - it's much better being an analyst without risking your own money and getting paid well to analyze the numbers than trying to figure out how to predict correctly randomness inside more randomness, and randomness is the key here, I think even the players themselves have no idea what will happen in the game, how much they will score over or under the line, there are refs involved and too many people who make the outcome random.

So yes, only an edge is the way out, but how do you know if your edge is really an edge? That's the real problem.

[jjgold]

Spot betting only way to go unless you arb or arb with bonuses vs other books

[jjgold]

Real estate is 10 times better

[danshan11]

This is definitely a good post, and you are pointing out why it's so hard to make money out of it - it's like guessing the stock market day after day after day - it's much better being an analyst without risking your own money and getting paid well to analyze the numbers than trying to figure out how to predict correctly randomness inside more randomness, and randomness is the key here, I think even the players themselves have no idea what will happen in the game, how much they will score over or under the line, there are refs involved and too many people who make the outcome random.

So yes, only an edge is the way out, but how do you know if your edge is really an edge? That's the real problem.

edge is pretty simple you got to spend less to make the same
example I used on twitter

example 2018 Cardinals won 54.3% at an avg line of -120, -120 implies 54.55% of the time they should win so they pretty much were even, now if you would have got them at -110, this is why beating the line matters

Cardinals 2018	bet	to win	spent	won	net
real line -120	120	100	19440	19360	-80
with a dime -110	110	100	17820	19360	1540