1. #1
    Hman
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    #9 Florida vs #7 Georgia October 27th 3:30 ET

    Looking ahead

    Is this a bad spot for the Gators?

    Both teams with a bye week but Georgia coming of that drubbing by LSU undoubtedly on their mind.

  2. #2
    daneblazer
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    What’s the line going to be? UGA -7.5?

    Ive watched every game for both of these teams. This is usually a close game unless one team is significantly better than the other...which I don’t think is the case this year.

  3. #3
    daneblazer
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    Georgia missed a lot of chances against LSU. Dropped 3-4 TD, 4 turnovers, had the dumb fake fg, and gave up on the run after gashing LSU in the 1q. Decided to run the air raid against 3-4 future NFL Dbs playing right into LSU’s strength. Fromm play like crap and the coaches called their worst game in two years.

    UGA going to have to man up against the run in a hurry.

    UF can expect to see more Justin Fields.

    UGA is a deeper team but they’re nearly all freshmen and sophomores. It’s going to be a smash mouth game

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Georgia ML

  5. #5
    BigdaddyQH
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    I stand to make a lot of money on this game. The line last May for the College "Games of the Year" at the Southpoint was Georgia -15. I grabbed Florida at that price. Now I am going to get a nice middle. These lines normally do not go over 6 1/2 either way, and that is what I am hoping for next week. I would love to get UGA at -6 1/2 or better. This is how you make money boys and girls. Wager 110/100. The worst you can do is lose 10. The best you can do is win 200. 20/1. It does not get any better than that.

  6. #6
    rotte_02
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    Solid math bro
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Guinser

  7. #7
    downsouth
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    I will be in attendance.

    Georgia Bulldogs 70
    Florida Jean Shorts 3.

    Late FG allowed when UGA begins to let people in the stands play.

  8. #8
    downsouth
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I stand to make a lot of money on this game. The line last May for the College "Games of the Year" at the Southpoint was Georgia -15. I grabbed Florida at that price. Now I am going to get a nice middle. These lines normally do not go over 6 1/2 either way, and that is what I am hoping for next week. I would love to get UGA at -6 1/2 or better. This is how you make money boys and girls. Wager 110/100. The worst you can do is lose 10. The best you can do is win 200. 20/1. It does not get any better than that.
    Not trying to bust your bubble but you are aware that winning 200 on a 110 wager is not quite 20/1. Just helping you out when you get into crunching the numbers.

  9. #9
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by downsouth View Post
    Not trying to bust your bubble but you are aware that winning 200 on a 110 wager is not quite 20/1. Just helping you out when you get into crunching the numbers.
    Obviously you have never played a middle. Let me spell it out for you and the other math geniuses. For the sake of discussion let us assume that you get UGA at -6 1/2. You already have Florida at +15. You wager 110 both ways. If Florida wins you win 100 and lose 110 for a 10 dollar loss. If Georgia wins and does not cover, or Florida does not cover, you win 100 and lose 110 for a 10 dollar loss. If Georgia wins by between 7 and 14 points, you win both ways for a +200. That is 20/1. The MOST you can lose is 10. You MUST win one of your two wagers. You can win both, but you cannot lose both. A win and a tie nets you +100.

    This is the difference between successful players and players that do not do real well overall. This is why the people who win at a consistent level do so. For us, the season starts in February. That is when I, along with others who do this for a living, start to prepare for the coming season. Do this long enough and you have a real good idea of what games will be listed on the "Games of the Year" odds. Figure out your lines for those games and then see what the "GOY" lines are. Do this with potential middles in mind. At 20/1, you do not have to hit many middles to show a nice profit.

  10. #10
    Husker36
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    Quote Originally Posted by downsouth View Post
    Not trying to bust your bubble but you are aware that winning 200 on a 110 wager is not quite 20/1. Just helping you out when you get into crunching the numbers.
    A rare occasion where I have to side with BDGH. Risk is only the juice. $10 on $110/$110 bets.

  11. #11
    Husker36
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I stand to make a lot of money on this game. The line last May for the College "Games of the Year" at the Southpoint was Georgia -15. I grabbed Florida at that price. Now I am going to get a nice middle. These lines normally do not go over 6 1/2 either way, and that is what I am hoping for next week. I would love to get UGA at -6 1/2 or better. This is how you make money boys and girls. Wager 110/100. The worst you can do is lose 10. The best you can do is win 200. 20/1. It does not get any better than that.
    The part I will disagree with is that $200 is a lot of money.

  12. #12
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Husker36 View Post
    The part I will disagree with is that $200 is a lot of money.
    Husker, I used the $100 as an example. I wager more in one game than most in here do in a week. I make it a point never to divulge how much money I wager, and if you are smart, you would also. I have seen many cases where big mouths talk about wagering and winning thousands. 99% of those are lies. The 1% that are true are soon separated from their money one way or another. Most of the time it is electronically, but I know of some idiots that walk around with a lot of cash, just to get their asses buried as they are being robbed. Only someone who is utterly stupid would give a potential thief an open door, and that is exactly what you do when you post the amount of money you allegedly have. It takes a pro about 10 minutes to find out everything he needs to know about anyone who posts in here or anyplace else unless you know which safeguards to use, and 99% of the people in here do not.

  13. #13
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post

    I wager more in one game than most in here do in a week.



  14. #14
    downsouth
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    Quote Originally Posted by Husker36 View Post
    A rare occasion where I have to side with BDGH. Risk is only the juice. $10 on $110/$110 bets.
    I am talking about when he makes the wager at the beginning of the season. He is laying 110 with hopes of having the opportunity to hedge out and fire at a middle for $200.

    What about all the others where the line goes against him or is worse. Florida loses to Miss State, LSU or Vandy and Georgia wins last weekend and odds are substantially different. And have to assume this is not the only one done, its easy to cherry pick the ones where you are right and brag about how easy it is.

    Clearly taking Florida and the 15 was a great bet that will have substantial value when the line releases below 7. You have 8+ points of value vs the perceived closer, why risk pissing it away chasing an extra $100? And is there a limit on which you will attempt said middle? Sure, this is an extreme case but if it were that easy to get 8 points of value vs game release the books wouldn't offer it as it would get murdered, even at the smaller limits they allow on game of year wagering.

    I know this is just another attempt for Bigdaddy to try and make himself feel like a big shot but I don't think its very sound gambling advice.

  15. #15
    daneblazer
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    Caesars currently has it at UGA -7.5

  16. #16
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by downsouth View Post
    I am talking about when he makes the wager at the beginning of the season. He is laying 110 with hopes of having the opportunity to hedge out and fire at a middle for $200.

    What about all the others where the line goes against him or is worse. Florida loses to Miss State, LSU or Vandy and Georgia wins last weekend and odds are substantially different. And have to assume this is not the only one done, its easy to cherry pick the ones where you are right and brag about how easy it is.

    Clearly taking Florida and the 15 was a great bet that will have substantial value when the line releases below 7. You have 8+ points of value vs the perceived closer, why risk pissing it away chasing an extra $100? And is there a limit on which you will attempt said middle? Sure, this is an extreme case but if it were that easy to get 8 points of value vs game release the books wouldn't offer it as it would get murdered, even at the smaller limits they allow on game of year wagering.

    I know this is just another attempt for Bigdaddy to try and make himself feel like a big shot but I don't think its very sound gambling advice.
    Let's talk about sound wagering advice? Just how much money have you won, if ANY, in your career? My guess is that you are well in the red, like 86% of the gamblers are. What you obviously lack is the ability to determine what the lines should be and compare those to what they are, when the GOY lines come out. This is an argument that you cannot possibly win because you have never played GOY lines and have no idea what you are talking about. You probably do not know anyone who does play the GOY lines. My guess is that there are not 5 people in here who do. That is why there are probably not 5 people in here who are actually ahead of the game. I have one thing that you do not have and that is knowledge. Do you even know how to place a GOY wager? The "Smaller Limits", as you call them, are very easy to circumvent IF you know what you are doing. Do you want to compare success rates over the past 10 years? I can PROVE mine.

  17. #17
    downsouth
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Let's talk about sound wagering advice? Just how much money have you won, if ANY, in your career? My guess is that you are well in the red, like 86% of the gamblers are. What you obviously lack is the ability to determine what the lines should be and compare those to what they are, when the GOY lines come out. This is an argument that you cannot possibly win because you have never played GOY lines and have no idea what you are talking about. You probably do not know anyone who does play the GOY lines. My guess is that there are not 5 people in here who do. That is why there are probably not 5 people in here who are actually ahead of the game. I have one thing that you do not have and that is knowledge. Do you even know how to place a GOY wager? The "Smaller Limits", as you call them, are very easy to circumvent IF you know what you are doing. Do you want to compare success rates over the past 10 years? I can PROVE mine.
    Sure, we can compare success rates. I made approximately 2500 plays last year and finished with a solid if not spectacular ROI and generated solid CLV on a win rate of around 55% on standard -110s. Average just over a point in line value with foots and just over 1.5 points in baskets. Higher on totals then sides.

    Previous years have varied with volume between 3000-5000 plays with decent CLV. Some better than others almost always in the green by years end(there was one ugly one). I lowered dollar amounts wagered and cut back volume to a certain degree as my real estate portfolio grew to a point it was a more lucrative gig to expand and manage than sports wagering. Didnt help that limits had been cut, bonuses taken away, and

    Im fully aware of how to place a GOY wager but havent done so in years but would guess if I placed more than one at any particular offshore book I would quickly be limted to betting peanuts on them. But hey, you can circumvent the limits because you know those numbers never move, they just sit stagnant waiting to be popped over and over again.

  18. #18
    daneblazer
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    Gameday going to Jacksonville

  19. #19
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    What’s the line going to be? UGA -7.5?

    Ive watched every game for both of these teams. This is usually a close game unless one team is significantly better than the other...which I don’t think is the case this year.



    Good call

    -7 to 7.5

  20. #20
    Sam Odom
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    PCness killed “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”

  21. #21
    t-wizzle
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    Cool rivalry with lots of bad games in recent years. Florida is going to want to keep it low scoring and shorten the game. But in some ways that plays into Georgiaís hands. I expect the Dawgs to get back to their bread and butter, i.e. playing off their running game. If they can get the ground game going early they should be able to hit some big plays through the air. Florida may dare them to beat them through the air though by loading the box. Itís a dangerous gameplan but itís probably the way to go with Frommís confidence down.

  22. #22
    daneblazer
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  23. #23
    firedawg
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    UGA will pull away late

  24. #24
    kyhawk
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    Went to one game and a few tailgates. Pro tip. If you are going park at Baptist Hospital. Walk over the bridge to the landing, where they had that shoot out a month ago and cab it in or walk it. Covered free parking and no traffic.

  25. #25
    BigdaddyQH
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    UGA opened at -6 1/2 at Caesars yesterday. The line now at 7. These games are always fun to attend, and this year, a lot is riding on the game. The winner is in the drivers seat for the SEC East Crown and a pounding by Alabama in the CC game. Keep in mind that Florida has already lost to Kentucky, so they would have ZERO chance to win the SEC East if Georgia defeats them. UGA plays at Kentucky next week.

  26. #26
    daneblazer
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    I can see the whole range of outcomes here. Georgia clicking on all clyanders can play with anyone. Georgia’s offense is the most balanced UF will see all year unless they play Alabama. I can also see them laying an LSU egg if Fromm sucks again and they refuse to run the ball. Going to sit this one out

  27. #27
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    My model shows Georgia winning 28 -24. Georgia -4/52.

    The value is with the Gators. Jump on it if you can get 7 or more.

  28. #28
    firedawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    UGA opened at -6 1/2 at Caesars yesterday. The line now at 7. These games are always fun to attend, and this year, a lot is riding on the game. The winner is in the drivers seat for the SEC East Crown and a pounding by Alabama in the CC game. Keep in mind that Florida has already lost to Kentucky, so they would have ZERO chance to win the SEC East if Georgia defeats them. UGA plays at Kentucky next week.
    Iíll be at the party
    No tickets this year though

  29. #29
    jjgold
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    Betting man is all over the dog here

    George is not as good as last year

  30. #30
    firedawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Betting man is all over the dog here

    George is not as good as last year
    JJ
    Do not comment on ncaa shit
    You are clueless

    Thanks

  31. #31
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Betting man is all over the dog here

    George is not as good as last year
    Haha ďGeorgeĒ

  32. #32
    daneblazer
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    First shift JJ likes Georgia ML

    Second shift JJ says Fade George

  33. #33
    firedawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    First shift JJ likes Georgia ML

    Second shift JJ says Fade George
    Exactly

  34. #34
    jjgold
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    Georgia running game is not as powerful as the last few years And thatís very important in college

  35. #35
    daneblazer
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    -6.5 now

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