1. #1
    Sam Odom
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    MLB : Contrarian Play





  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Sammy I love that word

    Nobody even knows what it means and thereís no basis to apply it to gambling


    Itís a fun word to justify a wager

    God Bless

  3. #3
    Sam Odom
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    Sammy wearing Red



  4. #4
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post



    Are you sure about that Sammy? Who are you going against here? The public? The money?

    Why do you call it contrarian?

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Sammy I love that word

    Nobody even knows what it means and there’s no basis to apply it to gambling
    Wrong.

    We've been regressing contrarian angles for years.

    It's not the information, it's how you use it that matters.

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  5. #5
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post

    Are you sure about that Sammy?

    being a winner ? NO

    properly classified ? YES

  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    Red Sox have minor league lineup.

  7. #7
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    being a winner ? NO

    properly classified ? YES

    You answered two questions I never asked.

    Gold's wrong point is all about a perception of classification.

    I didn't ask you about whether not it was classified right or wrong, I asked this...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Are you sure about that Sammy? Who are you going against here? The public? The money?

    Why do you call it contrarian?..

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  8. #8
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post

    You answered two questions I never asked.

    Learn that from Hillary

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post





    Looking like a winnah early.

  10. #10
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post

    Learn that from Hillary

    Sir Edmund Hillary

  11. #11
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    Learn that from Hillary

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  12. #12
    KVB
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    Sammy my sources indicate that the public has bought the Over, the tickets are on the Over, but the money disagrees with the public and is on the Under.

    Neither side is extreme but the distance between those two numbers would begin to put the Under on my Contrarian Fund radar.

    I am not in this game, but when we look across the books and the moves made relative to percentages being reported I see what I consider (based on extensive history and record keeping of the individual books through many years) sharper moves on the Under.

    These moves are weak in the analysis and even get classified as steam at one point, but steam following a sharp, market moving style move.

    Those sharper moves are known to be right more often than not but the books are known to attract steam as well in order to take a position.

    When I add this information into the line, there was no bet here as the best number was steamed down.

    In that respect, I can see how you went against the movement, after moving a whole point, but is it contrarian or did you just counter sharp money that eclipsed the public pressure? I use the term contrarian a lot on SBR, the definition might seem simple but there are many factors at play.

    On another note, the KC moneyline is looking more and more like a good shot from that Contrarian perspective. Both the tickets and the money are on Cleveland and KC is a good spot from a forecast perspective.

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  13. #13
    Sam Odom
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    NOT looking good


    NEXT

  14. #14
    fourlokobro
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    Good thought KVB, so in one sentence, explain why I'm flawed in thinking a contrarian play just meant you bet late on a lean bc of steam on the opposite side

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    NOT looking good


    NEXT
    Game not Over, you can still win easily, but I think you can see the perils countering what was basically strong reverse line movement, not a contrarian play.

    Did you get any KC, down 1-0 KC has them where they want them.

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  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by fourlokobro View Post
    Good thought KVB, so in one sentence, explain why I'm flawed in thinking a contrarian play just meant you bet late on a lean bc of steam on the opposite side
    In this game the contrarian play here would have been the Under which would have been the same side/direction as the steam, but that's not always the case because line movement and steam are just small factors that are used in different ways.

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  17. #17
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post

    NOT looking good


    NEXT





    Braves heard Sammy... Know Sammy to be their #1 fan
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  18. #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    NOT looking good


    NEXT
    How about now?

  19. #19
    lakerboy
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    Nice call

  20. #20
    Slipknot26
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    Atlanta's middle relief is total garbage

  21. #21
    Slipknot26
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    Unbelievable how bad the relief is and it's been known .
    Total garbage

  22. #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slipknot26 View Post
    Unbelievable how bad the relief is and it's been known .
    Total garbage
    Especially vs. minor league lineup, although Boston may have used regulars to pinch hit late.

  23. #23
    hotcross
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    MLB teams were 487-0 when leading by 6 runs entering the 8th inning this season
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 10/18/2021

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 10/11/2021


  24. #24
    newton0038
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    MLB teams were 487-0 when leading by 6 runs entering the 8th inning this season
    487-1 now

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