hou reg sea .46 fg .362 3p 13.8 to/g 21.5 ast
hou off rating 1st/30 hou def 6th/30
hou ppg 112.4, opp 103.9
min reg .476 fg .357 3p 12.5 to/g 22.7 ast
min off rating 4th/30 def 27th/30
min ppg 109.5, opp 107.3
playoff games
@hou hou 104, min 101
@hou hou 102, min 82
@min min 121, hou 105
Question: how did min go from 82 to 121 ppg
check: starters: same lineup, butler probable ankle (not an issue)
min fg .388 / .457
min bech - ROSE 4/9 17m / ROSE 8/16 21m
factor: Derrick Rose minutes and shots: let Derrick score
factor: J. Butler shot attempts: let Jimmy score
factor: TO's 16 / 7: back to home court, TO's big dropoff.
factor: FG%: more relaxed on home court with shots
Ref Check: Capers, Ayotte, Guthrie
Capers avg tot 209.6
Ayotte avg tot 210.7
Guthrie avg tot 210.3
dangers to under:
both teams excel on offense ratings.
both teams average enough to bring over in play late in game
minnesota back home likely to score over 105
houston almost always gets into 105+ avg 112
ref lineup average 210+
dangers to over:
minny would have to play exceptional defense: unlikely
minny would have to turnover a lot at home: unlikely
houston would have to shoot poorly: unlikely
dangers to spread either way:
both teams capable of wide disparities in defensive standards
both teams capable of explosive streaks
dangers to minny+6:
turnovers, lesser plays for Rose
dangers to hou -6:
Rose takes over the bench and plays same as last game
Minny controls ball better like last game
Play: Over 217.5 (-110)
Expect a loose, aggressive game with plenty of shots and fouls
fast breaks and early-in-the-clock fg attempts
Scoring, not defense will be the way to win
If Minny concentrates too much on trying to stop Houston down low,
Houston snipers will gas them from wide and deep.
Houston knows the way to win is fast buckets not clock mgmt
Minny is at home where they like the court and will get theirs.
With you - Like the analysis. I am concerned KAT gets in foul trouble? The home court is worth something. The last game is the most excitement the Wolves fans have had in 15 years. Wolves have to fight to keep their own crowd in the game.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Houston @ Minny Over 217.5 (-110)
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Originally Posted by chico2663
