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Public perception is far worse on houston. Ppl can excuse getting beat by Ravens, nobody believes in Texans after getting asses handed to them by jags. Line already up to 5. If you fading perception Houston the play. To my point doubt I can make it, lol.Originally Posted by GunShard
That what I was saying earlier it a bummer these 2 facing each other instead of teams that looked good cause perception low on both, clearly far lower on Houston tho and let's not forget even at his best the ginger water pistol always been a prime time choke artist.
good luck, LB...I did my usual 4TM 13PT teaser....those bonus points sure come in handy especially the first several weeks when we are still trying to gauge these teams.
Ticket # Accepted Type Risk To Win Short Description 9/11/2017 5:01PM Teaser 85.91 68.73 Football - 262 Jacksonville Jaguars +14½ for Game
Football - 272 Kansas City Chiefs +8½ for Game
Football - 280 Oakland Raiders -½ for Game
Football - 281 Washington Redskins +15½ for Game
Remember boys, no one is as good or bad as their last week in the NFL.
Read that 5 times and become a better 'capper than 95% of the guys here and elsewhere.
That's why we need your picks. Landers picks would help, too.
Week to week league.
Correct, how one team performed the week before (barring injuries) has no effect on their performance a week later.
I proved this a few months ago, so I'm not going to prove it out again.
Good teams cover the line, bad teams don't.
Just look at the ATS records of the teams that went to the playoffs last season (and seasons past)
Against the Spread, all but one playoff team last year were over .500 ATS, teams that missed the playoffs don't cover the number.
Yes, the NFL is pretty easy to 'cap, good teams usually cover, bad teams do not.
Interesting followup question then nash, why do you think this is so hard to understand or believe for most people?
easy... GAMBA!
My opinion, and this is just an opinion.
I don't think the common bettor likes laying the lumber.
I used to work for as a go between for a book.
By go between I mean I would pick up money owed, and delivered money won for the 'office'
I'd answer phones when needed, and I was given a percentage of net losses of customers I brought in.
Anyway, the book that ran the office taught me a lot of things, one of them was the 'public' doesn't like to lay points.
He went on to say that's why you see a lot of 9 1/2 point lines. Seems that double digit lines are a psychological thing.
I think he's right, the 'public' doesn't like to lay the points.
Confusing since favorites and overs are public plays.
Last week's performance isn't necessarily confined to favs but in most people's minds, it probably is
I liked the buccaneers this week but after seeing bears keep it close with falcons im worried
Bucs a tougher matchup for them than falcons. I just don't like that bucs havnt had chance to shake rust off like the other teams who all mostly looked bad in game 1.
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Precisely my analysis as well. Well done (I think), bankster.
3 team teaser-
Raiders
Seahawks
Cowboys
seems like easy money so will prob lose.
I think the Jets cover in Oakland.
Wow, finally some respect for the J-E-T-S jets jets jets! Jets usually play Raiders tough, historically that is...
I don't wanna waste Raiders/Seattle in survivor, trying to think it through... Probably will though... Would be beautiful if Jets won lol.
One of jets or niners is covering but because the Hawks lost i can't fade them
Really? I mean who knows it used to be good idea taking the points on these monster spreads but last several years I think big chalk has mostly covered. I rarely even lay a td and I thought about taking raiders before it hit 14, lol..
Wouldn't be wasting raiders in survivor this their easiest game of the year. No chance in hell they lose.
Keep in mind the lines are all teaser related
Man that's exactly why I'm scared to do it, I got them first and Seattle next on Paper. Wouldn't be shocked if one of em somehow lost... highly unlikely, but definitely possible! Remember, Cleveland almost did it last week.... wish they did...
Browns are way better than jets, were at home and spread was 7. Last week was very tough there were tons of mind fields and really no rock solid td + home teams.. neither those teams losing bro, save the one w easier games left (prob sea) and pick the other w confidence. I promise neither are losing, coast week everyone that didn't get fukked last week advances easy here unless they try and get cute!!
New England -6 1/2 at a very unstable New Orleans team. A pissed off Brady against a team who has no direction.
What game were you watching? Philly looked bad against a bad Washington team. They can't run the ball, Carson ran for his life a few times, see the play with 4 missed Philly tackles leading to a WAS touchdown?
Eagles had to go out and get a rookie kicker this week, and they lost their best cornerback.
KC at home with an extra 3 days rest? Yeah I like KC at -5
Just the highlights, but Wentz scramble was pretty good..., think you're underestimating both teams or you're a fan of either DAL/NYG...
Ya ex-Bills Darby, good riddance! Overrated and now injured.
KC just has better talent, and with two good players out Eagles will struggle.
BTW..Eagle fan since birth.
Cushing 10 game suspension!
I'm not so sure kc talent is all that much better. They a better team right now but talent wise Philly has plenty on both sides of the ball. The Darby injury certainly hurts but kc lost a big piece of their secondary as well. I don't think philly ready to go into arrowhead and win, I don't expect them to get blown out cause they have a solid defensive front and will make some plays in the passing game, plus chiefs don't generally make a habit of simply rolling teams real often. I thought the -4 at open was a really good number, I suppose if it got above 6 I'd have to consider philly but really don't want any part of this game at current line..
doesn't surprise me.. He stands out as one of the guys that has always looked juiced to the gills.
How do you know this from one week?
Seattle is just as likely a winner and 50% of survivor pools are on Oakland, lol
Bucs would be the way to go in survivor this week.
I used Buffalo last week, reasoning being Bills won't be in much softer spots rest of the season, and you don't want to burn the elite teams too early in the season, same logic applies in week 2, this is probably going to be the softest spot all season the Bucs will be in, I can't see the Bears going down to Tampa and pulling out a road upset with a Howard and nothing much else.
I agree, I keep trying to tell a friend that future value is overrated until about week 6 or so, at least
I was on Bills (I'm always honest about the 1 pick I would make if only 1 entry) last week too.
I actually think the Bucs are gonna be good this year, so the rust factor 2da and I spoke of above might make this a good one, but not great.
Another thing --- why is it so hard to convince people that the way to WIN survivor is not to go with the public, but rather by correctly identifying susceptible, big favorites. That means staying away from a major week % selection. I've got a friend that doesn't understand that if you win and advance, it means nothing long term if you don't differentiate yourself or pare down the competition dramatically.
^
Week 3 if you really want to get creative is use the Browns over the Colts.
If you are going to go deep in the survivor you're going to have to clear the Browns at some time, and I really think the Browns are more stable and a better team that the Colts.
If you don't want to get that creative, then you can use either the Dolphins over the Jets, or the Rams over SF.
(or even the Panthers over the Saints, the Saints are a bad defensive team that will lose a majority of their games to teams that have good offense)
That true to a extent however the only true way to win is to not lose. Some weeks like this with Oakland everyone gonna advance and this best time to take raiders as they won't be 14 point favs rest of year..
Not sure what your question in other post really meant bro? I wasn't saying Oakland was safer than Seattle I don't know that, they both about as safe as it gets. I was saying with seattles home field it and division they play in it far more likely they have another game where they close to this big of favs while I think it easily safe to say raiders won't again be even double digit favs and surely not 2 tds!
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