1-1 after today I like Cilic at -4. Qurrey has played well but Tsonga isn't playing well right now - losing in the first round at the French Open where he usually plays very well, and Murray has been inconsistent dealing with an elbow injury.
Cilic is a very good but not great player who usually loses in the quarterfinals or semifinals in majors. Cilic is very consistent but doesn't raise his game in big matches - he's an aggressive player who is best on the hard court and good on grass, but struggles on clay where you have to play more defensively.
Cilic has played well on grass the last 2 times at wimbledon losing in the quarterfinal round, and for Cilic to reach the final round at wimbledon would be a significant accomplishment for him even if he eventually loses. Cilic is also very consistent in good matches - almos always losing to superior players Qurrey has already exceeded expectations and I don't think he will be as consistent coming off a win over Murray.