1. #1
    newguy
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    Anyone routinely take +1.5 in MLB?

    Curious to hear from anyone who takes the +1.5 run line in baseball. I take the -1.5 often when I'm on a heavy fav but was wondering how many take the other side often? To me, I don't see the value. Take this Houston/a's game today. Why take the A's -110 +1.5 instead of +200 or so? Give up a ton of value for 1 run no?

    I like to learn from others when I don't see value so anyone take it? And if so - why??

  2. #2
    ticklemepink1991
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    i just stick to games -130 or lower for baseball, and normally i won't play a dog above +160 only because the chance of them winning is very low at that point

    got to just pick and choose your spots...thats what i do for baseball and it seems to be okay so far

  3. #3
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ticklemepink1991 View Post
    i just stick to games -130 or lower for baseball, and normally i won't play a dog above +160 only because the chance of them winning is very low at that point

    got to just pick and choose your spots...thats what i do for baseball and it seems to be okay so far
    I'll do same. If I really like a big fav I'm gonna take them on runline anyway. Almost never lay more than about -125 on a baseball game.

    That said there has to be value on the +1.5 or books wouldn't offer the -1.5 so just trying to get educated better on the + run line

  4. #4
    ticklemepink1991
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    Quote Originally Posted by newguy View Post
    I'll do same. If I really like a big fav I'm gonna take them on runline anyway. Almost never lay more than about -125 on a baseball game.

    That said there has to be value on the +1.5 or books wouldn't offer the -1.5 so just trying to get educated better on the + run line
    wish i could help. never bet a +1.5 in my life, everytime i considered it, the team i wanted to bet on would lose by at least 2 and not even score a run

    good luck newguy

  5. #5
    ManOfValue
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    +1.5 not worth it. You're right. You're better off laying -1.5 especially with road favs.

  6. #6
    Itsamazing777
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    It's for suckers

  7. #7
    Rich Boy
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    Im a fan of Road Dog +1 and +1.5 lines

    The home team has to cover in 8 innings or their odds are slim to none in extra innings

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    A lot of games end up on one run

  9. #9
    CappinTerp
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    I rarely use the -/+ 1.5 run line,I bet mostly dogs and would rather get the +185/ +200 ML. Think about this: In baseball,if you have a so-so year,you will loose 80 games.If you have a good year you will loose 70 games. And if you have a great year you will loose 60 games( 102-60). So the way I see it....there is not much difference between most of the teams in baseball! (more reason to bet ML dogs? )Now for all sports,I still bet mostly dogs,but will not bet a dog,unless I feel it has a reasonable expect ion of winning the game out-right and 90% of the time will take the points......don't know if that helped,but good luck!

  10. #10
    xraygord
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    ML only with baseball. Or totals.

  11. #11
    SAX27
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    Might play +1.5 RL's in a parlay if I think they have a chance to win, juice on most plays is not playable. On the other side I will play numerous -1.5 RL's regularly.

    My local does not offer the -1 line and often times I will play ML & -1.5 RL to get close to the -1.

  12. #12
    FUqer
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    I don't think I ever have or ever will, I would go RRL before +1.5, especially in games with high totals.

    72 dogs won last year in games with a total of 10 or more, 79% of those dogs who won, did so by 2 or more, 61% by 3 or more.

    77% for dogs who won in games with totals of 9 or more last season won by 2 or more.

    Some teams, like the Athletics when they win as dogs in high total games win by 2 or more well over 80% or more the last couple of season, and win by 3 or more 65% of the time they win as dogs. The Reds also win by 3 or more as dogs 62% of the time the last couple of season. It all depends on the team and situation.

    I always think about playing a dog SU for half a unit and RRL for half a unit in those games but never have as of yet.
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  13. #13
    SAX27
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    FUquer all over it as usual!! Love his facts!!

  14. #14
    mdunlap3
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    Only sometimes against huge favorites. But otherwise, never. Can look up the ROI ytd with a simple query in the SDQL database if you're interested. Let me know.

  15. #15
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by newguy View Post
    Curious to hear from anyone who takes the +1.5 run line in baseball. I take the -1.5 often when I'm on a heavy fav but was wondering how many take the other side often? To me, I don't see the value. Take this Houston/a's game today. Why take the A's -110 +1.5 instead of +200 or so? Give up a ton of value for 1 run no?

    I like to learn from others when I don't see value so anyone take it? And if so - why??
    -1.5 is one of the biggest sucker lines out there. Very rarely i take it and 99 percent of the time i go with the +1.5 line. Same with hockey

  16. #16
    importmoon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    -1.5 is one of the biggest sucker lines out there. Very rarely i take it and 99 percent of the time i go with the +1.5 line. Same with hockey
    absolutely true and 100% agree...

  17. #17
    crackerjack
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    If I was a big bettor with a big bankroll I'd bet +1.5 a lot. But the juice is rough for a small bettor like me. Better to just take the plus odds and hope your team doesn't lose by one run

  18. #18
    GzaTheGenius
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    It's like taking a + 2 1/2 in the NFL, sure sometimes it works but in the long run it's a shot to the nuts

  19. #19
    Philmill
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    +1.5 only in Hockey......

  20. #20
    mdunlap3
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    Query = D and run line runs = 1.5 and season=2017

    Results:

    Dogs with +1.5 run line are 644-491 this season SU, with an ROI of -5.4%, the other side (-1.5) faves have an ROI .6%.
    Last edited by mdunlap3; 06-29-17 at 08:14 PM.

  21. #21
    xraygord
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    +1.5 only in Hockey......
    Fuk no, that's worse than baseball.

  22. #22
    GzaTheGenius
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    Quote Originally Posted by xraygord View Post
    Fuk no, that's worse than baseball.
    Parlaying two -1.5 in NHL is where it's at, easiest cash around

  23. #23
    Otters27
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    Take +1.5 quite often

  24. #24
    Shute
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    Never place that wager. Always on the other side -1.5. Shute

  25. #25
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    -1.5 is one of the biggest sucker lines out there. Very rarely i take it and 99 percent of the time i go with the +1.5 line. Same with hockey
    Why though?? What's basis??

  26. #26
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by mdunlap3 View Post
    Query = D and run line runs = 1.5 and season=2017

    Results:

    Dogs with +1.5 run line are 644-491 this season SU, with an ROI of -5.4%, the other side (-1.5) faves have an ROI .6%.
    Not sure how much work it would be but how do you control for only +1.5 when +1.5 is between -110 to +110? Then you would have to further identify how many times the dog won outright costing you about a unit normally. That would give true roi

  27. #27
    lonegambler23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shute View Post
    Never place that wager. Always on the other side -1.5. Shute
    yeah dude we know who you are.. lol

  28. #28
    Shute
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonegambler23 View Post
    yeah dude we know who you are.. lol
    Thanks. Shute.

  29. #29
    JPTerriers8
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    +1.5 imo is the worst bet in baseball. I don't have any percentages or saying it's a fact but if someone would look it up I'm willing to bet that dogs win more games outright then they lose by only 1 run.
    No point in paying juice to a dog to get a extra run

  30. #30
    Shute
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPTerriers8 View Post
    +1.5 imo is the worst bet in baseball. I don't have any percentages or saying it's a fact but if someone would look it up I'm willing to bet that dogs win more games outright then they lose by only 1 run.
    No point in paying juice to a dog to get a extra run
    Explained it perfectly.

  31. #31
    Jupiter333
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    One game out of six with lose by one run exactly when playing the dog,....about the same ratio of someone betting the pointspread versus the moneyline in football.

    It is never an advantage to bet +1.5 according to my database, however there is an advantage taking -1- in non divisional games when the line is greater than -170.

  32. #32
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by SAX27 View Post
    Might play +1.5 RL's in a parlay if I think they have a chance to win, juice on most plays is not playable. On the other side I will play numerous -1.5 RL's regularly.

    My local does not offer the -1 line and often times I will play ML & -1.5 RL to get close to the -1.

    Actually your local does. You can create a -1 run line on your own.

  33. #33
    SAX27
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    Blue, you are correct, as mentioned I will play the ML & RL in many cases to create the -1. Often times I will let it ride but in reality to get the true -1 it takes some math for each play.

  34. #34
    kingdom
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    I don't think I ever have or ever will, I would go RRL before +1.5, especially in games with high totals.

    72 dogs won last year in games with a total of 10 or more, 79% of those dogs who won, did so by 2 or more, 61% by 3 or more.

    77% for dogs who won in games with totals of 9 or more last season won by 2 or more.

    Some teams, like the Athletics when they win as dogs in high total games win by 2 or more well over 80% or more the last couple of season, and win by 3 or more 65% of the time they win as dogs. The Reds also win by 3 or more as dogs 62% of the time the last couple of season. It all depends on the team and situation.

    I always think about playing a dog SU for half a unit and RRL for half a unit in those games but never have as of yet.
    For perspective, how many games were with a total of 10+? Its an interesting stat but there are about 4500 baseball games a season. I'm not a database guy so not sure how to look it up.

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