[stevenash]

Minnesota at Cleveland

Santana has crashed to earth, 19 hits, 11 runs given up in last 2 starts.
Tomlin has been hot garbage all season.

Don't trust Santana off of the way he's looked the past two starts against that offense that can rake all day.
Don't trust Tomlin in any spot.

Tomlin is -150, that's a joke.
Santana or nothing.
I choose pass.
Over is 9.5, should go over. Maybe worth a play

Cubs at Miami

Montgomery (L) is converted reliever, making fourth start
His numbers are rock solid, but misleading because of all the relief appearances.
He's a five and fly starter so to properly handicap this game you have to factor in the middle relievers and the set up guys and the closer.
Right handed hitters have hit him, he's impossible to hit if bat left.
Here's the thing if you are backing Montgomery at -119 on the road.
Marlins Ozuma and Stanton both bat right, both smack left handed pitching and have power to spare, and Realmuto also loves facing lefties and he's one of the better hitting catchers in the league.

Marlins start Mr. No Hitter Volquez, who's ordinary at best despite the no hitter.
Left handed batters tee off on RH pitchers like Volquez, the only two in the line up are the catcher Montero and Rizzo. (Happ is a switch hitter and even though John Jay bats ninth, he's a LHB but he's not much of a threat)

Cubs are a lean, I'm not overly convinced if that's worth a play.
Total is 9 (over juiced at -120) Not that excited about the over, tough to play under with both lineups that can hit,

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Orioles start Tillman, without question the worst regular rotation starter in the majors.
Without question.
This cheeseburger deluxe owns a 8.39 ERA, and an ungodly 2.17 WH/IP or in other words allows more than two baserunners an inning, each and every inning. He's given up 3 or more earned runs in 8 of 9 starts, he's give up 5, 5, and 9 earned runs in his last three starts, and hasn't won a game in six consecutive starts, while getting hammered in all of them.

Rays start Odorizzi, who's clearly light years the better starter.
Sound WH/IP, ERA a tad high at 3.79, nice K ratio.
He is what he is, a steady middle of the rotation guy.

Longoria has made a career out of hitting Tillman, 8 homers lifetime, he's made Tillman his personal meat puppet.
Than you have Dickerson, Sousa, Logan Morrison, in that lineup too, well, I can see Tampa crushing Tillman early and often.

This game handicaps itself, I hate laying -150m however there's always exceptions, considering using Tampa in 2 team parlay also.

The only way Baltimore wins this game is they win a slugfest, or Tillman pulls a rabbit out of his ass.

Only one thing that concerns me, in 1989 there was a similar scenario.
I remember this vividly.
Phillies had a Tillman starting that day, 2 and 11 Larry McWilliams.
McWilliams wasn't very good, barely serviceable 14 year career.
He hung around so long because he was a lefty in a "have a left arm, will travel" era.
So 2 and 11 McWilliams was a home dog against a pretty good Tim Belcher and the Dodgers.
(look the game up in the game log, 1989)
Belcher was Odorizzi today as McWilliams was Tillman today.
See where I am going here?
Dodgers and Belcher were light years better than the Phils with cheese steak McWilliams and all.
(and this being in Philly and all cheese steak certainly applies)
I pounded the Reds, what I thought was a very reasonable betting line which was, wait for it, wait for it, -150, the same as it is today.
I put up 300 (in 1989 that's like 1000 to me now) to win 200.
Can't lose, sure thing, lock of all locks..........
Long story short, McWilliams throws a mother freaking complete game shutout. Four f*cking hitter.

Deja vu all over again? We'll see.

Brewers at Braves

Brewers start Zach Davies, he's been pretty much a punching bag all season.
Braves bats should get theirs today off of Zach.

Braves start Teheran, who's having the worst season of an otherwise very good career.
I would bet Atlanta at a very reasonable -110 at home, however Teheran has been giving homers at an alarming rate, and Brewers are really crushing the ball this year

Pass, but over is worth a look.

Reds at Nationals

Reds start Feldman, a not very good, so-so starter at best.
Nats start Tanner Roark, having a very bad season, but when you have Gio, Strasburg, and Max in the rotation nobody notices just how bad Roark is this season.

Both starters are equally bad, Feldman is having a little better season.
Both teams have lineups that can smash, Roark is getting whipped boy LH batters all year, guys live Votto and the rest should touch him up.

Can the Nats score 18 again.
I don't think so, if Reds get to Roark, and the Nats have to use their 'pen, Reds win easy.

Leaning Reds here at +136.

Angels at Red Sox

Angels start Birdwell who I don't know much about except he's not very good.
Red Sox start Fister who's making his first start of the season.

Fister and the Sox all day but I'm not laying over 8 to 5 with the Sox, home or not.
Passing, but Sox or no play, I don't lay that kind of juice.

I'm out of time.

Oakland is a lean with Sonny Gray
Yankees are a pass, I want to bet Nick Martinez, but can't, too many homers.
Can Royals complete the sweep, heart says yes, wallet says doubtful, pass, but let's go KC, get it done.

[shocka1212]

if they're gonna sweep, its set up great with liriano out there today

[stevenash]

if they're gonna sweep, its set up great with liriano out there today

I know, Liriano has always burnt me in the pass.

[stevenash]

I laid off the Tampa Bay game, just too much juice.

I played the Reds at +132

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win		Status	Wager
445574334-1	6/25/17 12:26pm	$80.00	$105.60		Pending	6/25/17 1:35pm MLB Baseball 903 Cincinnati Reds +132* vs Washington Nationals (S Feldman - R must Start T Roark - R must Start)

Looking at Oakland in 10 minutes.
St. Louis would be a play but too much juice.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good write ups. Thx for the info.

[jjgold]

Nashy always with tremendous write ups