[jjgold]

Toronto playing well but never wins a statement game

Anything new here??

Pick

[triplecrown333]

seems like cavs have their number...

[gojetsgomoxies]

Toronto playing well but never wins a statement game

they beat cleveland and OKC on the road regular season last year.

having said that, i do think cleveland is the play here and somewhat agree with your comment.

[sportsfan9698]

Who knows. I'm beat up on NBA for now... sticking to CBB until I see an edge.

Last night I had two picks that were right there and missed shots down the stretch. Getting tired of that.

[sportsfan9698]

Stetson +20 is my pick of the day on the CBB thread... strong play

[Seaweed]

Toronto

[rizespor]

Raptors did beat them twice in the regular season last year both at home. Also both their playoff wins against them last year were at home.

Looks like a close game. Who knows

[PorkChop]

Better games to play, Dont always have to order from the specials menu

[CanuckG]

Tor or pass

[sportsfan9698]

Many of you like to refer to past games as an indication of how today's game will go... I have never found a strong correlation to that angle at all. Not even with the same personnel.

Each matchup is a different animal. You need to look to other things for an edge IMO

[Ra77er]

3 teams exceeding expectations in the NBA. Toronto, Houston, Da Bulls.

I see LB on Boston, Porky is on Portland and now the Cavs roulette thread "no way they lose 4 inna row". This may be hollywood squares monday and perhaps I should look at taking all of the latter along with the Colts on MNF.

I think the only play right now that stands out that I like is the Milwaukee Bucs Under and if I could still get +6.5 but that is in direct conflict with LT the Profit.

What to do?

[chico2663]

JJ the only way that they lose is if seeweed starts a thread proclaiming victory for the cavs

[stackz125]

Many of you like to refer to past games as an indication of how today's game will go... I have never found a strong correlation to that angle at all. Not even with the same personnel.

Each matchup is a different animal. You need to look to other things for an edge IMO

No wonder your beat up

[sportsbook_12]

I think this is unlikely.

[sportsbook_12]

But if it does happen, Lue will get fired for sure.

[kingdom]

Many of you like to refer to past games as an indication of how today's game will go... I have never found a strong correlation to that angle at all. Not even with the same personnel.

Each matchup is a different animal. You need to look to other things for an edge IMO

There is no way you capped that stetson game lol. they haven't played a game on the board all year. so it's a strong play based on what?? hilarious...

[Goat Milk]

But if it does happen, Lue will get fired for sure.

[sportsfan9698]

No wonder your beat up

No wonder most of you like to use wagering folklore to keep you in the game, but cannot consistently win.

I keep my own database and use regression analysis to help decide what works and what does not.

But yea you are probably right.

[jjgold]

Toronto so due for a big home win vs a good team

Lean Toronto

[blap10]

But if it does happen, Lue will get fired for sure.

?

[PorkChop]

Toronto so due for a big home win vs a good team

Lean Toronto

Crazy scheduling this is third matchup already between the two

[Goat Milk]

Many of you like to refer to past games as an indication of how today's game will go... I have never found a strong correlation to that angle at all. Not even with the same personnel.

Each matchup is a different animal. You need to look to other things for an edge IMO

If you want to look for other things when it comes to a rematch high-level NBA game wherein both teams will probably be trying (this specific game) as if it were a playoff game, you have to watch the film of the previous game and see what corrections could be made.

However, by this point, with these two specific teams, having faced each other last year in the finals too, having 3 of the 5 stars in the game on the same team during the summer, there's not many adjustments to make. Small things here and there.

For one demare carroll did not play in the last game, forcing the raptors to defend Lebron with Norman Powell for long stretches. No chance. Carroll cannot hold down Bron but will do better than Powell.

JR Smith also did not play. Derozen missed some easy bunnies that I bet he will capitalize on even with Smith guarding him.

You gotta think that this a game for Kyrie Irving to really show up and put his stamp on the game. Lowrie is a ferocious defender but has no chance of guarding Irving and switching on tornto bigs like Patterson or Siakam and Valencunas. This game has that type of playoff atmosphere feel with the Cavs losing last few games and the Raptors still wanting to dethrone this team.

Love can also have a solid game with the Cavs looking to get back to basics and feeding him in the post early against Siakam and forcing Dwayne Casey to bring in Patterson early, giving Toronto less rim protection, but more versatility guarding Love and also more spacing on the offensive side for Derozen and Lowry to operate.

[Jayvegas420]

Great post goat milk.
I think the Cavs are the easiest pick of the week but...
Great analysis

Raps cannot continue to cover like this. They have covered every regulation game in their last ten.

Since LeBron's return I never thought I'd see Toronto favoured over Cleveland.
I cant pass this up.

[sportsfan9698]

Goat I don't want to offend you, so please understand me... any "writeup" is basically useless to an objective punter. There is another person out there with the opposite opinion that can state a case that will rip yours to shreds...

My point has nothing to do with matchups or x's and o's. Most of you do not get that, and that is okay. It is more about the mental state of each team going into the contest. That is all that matters for me.

[sportsfan9698]

Do you ever wonder why so often a team will launch out to a 10 or 15 pt lead in the 1st quarter in the NBA? It happens so often, and more often than not, that team will win and cover. That team that launches out of the gate has a mental edge, not a statistical edge. That mental edge is what you should be looking for.

[Goat Milk]

Goat I don't want to offend you, so please understand me... any "writeup" is basically useless to an objective punter. There is another person out there with the opposite opinion that can state a case that will rip yours to shreds...

My point has nothing to do with matchups or x's and o's. Most of you do not get that, and that is okay. It is more about the mental state of each team going into the contest. That is all that matters for me.

With a regular season game there's more than just matchups to consider you're right.
There's analytics. (stats, b2b, 4th in 5 nights).
And there's human elements (mental like you said. Did x player break up with his GF? Are there problems on the home front? Does he have an issue with a coach or teammate? Is the coach prepping them for this game like it's their last?)

These must be considered as well. Mental edges are important.

However, in playoff games, or playoff type games, your analytics mean 0. Nothing. Your reg season stats mean nothing. There's no b2b games. There's no 4 in 5 nights. It is entirely about matchups and human elements. Matchups will dictate every single winner in an NBA series. Why do you think everyone was saying Curry is the best player in the NBA last year? The regular season fooled them. You think Lebron James tries every game like Curry during the reg season? Lebron James is the best player, by far. Much better than Westbrook and it's not close.

Point is...regular season fools most people.
The Warriors made a foolish mistake last year but not making James utilize more effort on 1 on 1 defense last year, allowing him to act as a roaming defender and save his energy. That is something the Warriors were never going to adjust on, even though Kerr was well aware of it.

[t-wizzle]

With a regular season game there's more than just matchups to consider you're right.
There's analytics. (stats, b2b, 4th in 5 nights).
And there's human elements (mental like you said. Did x player break up with his GF? Are there problems on the home front? Does he have an issue with a coach or teammate? Is the coach prepping them for this game like it's their last?)

These must be considered as well. Mental edges are important.

However, in playoff games, or playoff type games, your analytics mean 0. Nothing. Your reg season stats mean nothing. There's no b2b games. There's no 4 in 5 nights. It is entirely about matchups and human elements. Matchups will dictate every single winner in an NBA series.

The Warriors made a foolish mistake last year but not making James utilize more effort on 1 on 1 defense last year, allowing him to act as a roaming defender and save his energy. That is something the Warriors were never going to adjust on, even though Kerr was well aware of it.

Well yea when Harrison Barnes can't throw the ball into the ocean it's going to allow James to take it easy on that end.

[sportsfan9698]

With a regular season game there's more than just matchups to consider you're right.
There's analytics. (stats, b2b, 4th in 5 nights).
And there's human elements (mental like you said. Did x player break up with his GF? Are there problems on the home front? Does he have an issue with a coach or teammate? Is the coach prepping them for this game like it's their last?)

These must be considered as well. Mental edges are important.

However, in playoff games, or playoff type games, your analytics mean 0. Nothing. Your reg season stats mean nothing. There's no b2b games. There's no 4 in 5 nights. It is entirely about matchups and human elements. Matchups will dictate every single winner in an NBA series. Why do you think everyone was saying Curry is the best player in the NBA last year? The regular season fooled them. You think Lebron James tries every game like Curry during the reg season? Lebron James is the best player, by far. Much better than Westbrook and it's not close.

Point is...regular season fools most people.
The Warriors made a foolish mistake last year but not making James utilize more effort on 1 on 1 defense last year, allowing him to act as a roaming defender and save his energy. That is something the Warriors were never going to adjust on, even though Kerr was well aware of it.

I think we are almost on the same page... good enuf

I cap the market, you cap the matchup. there is a difference

[Goat Milk]

I think we are almost on the same page... good enuf
I cap the market, you cap the matchup. there is a difference

Maybe we should join forces?

Tried to build a model in Python that valuates the matchups, uses the analytics, and valuates the human elements -- got down about 30 or so variables -- but good never put together an algorithm. Asked some stats friends i know and they couldn't get it together either. I know if I can combine my matchup analysis with these elements, model will hit 65%. I'm certain of it.

Not worried to share the idea on here because not many understand the x's and o's like me.

But many on here are math gurus. Looking to team up w someone.

[sportsfan9698]

I have nothing substantial to offer on NBA as of yet... I did at one time, but the game has changed and my models do not work now. I am working on it... and I expect to have something that works by mid to late DEC.

I have my model working full force in the CBB. Take a small stake in Stetson +20 tonight. I will be taking a large stake

[sportsfan9698]

In the NBA you want to pick the teams that LAUNCH out of the gate in Q1. If you cannot predict that consistently, you are just flipping coins

[terrenceross]

I think the Cavs are the easiest pick of the week but...

[kingdom]

Goat i think you're off in assuming Cavs treat this as a playoff game. this is a team they know they can dominate when the money's on the line. The import of this game is to the raptors, who need every mental edge imaginable. The Cav's motivation is Lebron personally not wanting to lose a 4pk, but can he translate to his teammates that haven't look motivated at all? I think they are overconfident and lax playing any eastern conference team and know they can win games when they hit shots against them.

[kingdom]

In the NBA you want to pick the teams that LAUNCH out of the gate in Q1. If you cannot predict that consistently, you are just flipping coins

Very close, but if you look closer its the defense determining. the team that holds the other under 20 in the first quarter will cover more often than not. For one, that team has come out with some intensity, or the other team is just off, or not motivated when they don't score 20 in the first. Very good for in play action.
Especially when the dog is the one doing the holding.

[sportsfan9698]

Very close, but if you look closer its the defense determining. the team that holds the other under 20 in the first quarter will cover more often than not. For one, that team has come out with some intensity, or the other team is just off, or not motivated when they don't score 20 in the first. Very good for in play action.
Especially when the dog is the one doing the holding.

I think we are saying the same thing... but noted I will will look more for defense. I'm not at all a big ingame guy, the limits are there and I want to make a pick prior to tipoff and take the big cash