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11-03-16 09:35 PM #1
How come NBA lines are so sharp?
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11-03-16 09:39 PM #2
NBA is the hardest to cap. if you faded a guy like me you could make some money
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11-03-16 09:42 PM #3
too few teams and too easy of a sport to handicap. So many plays in basketball that the math is that much easier to get down and then you add the fact that the players are much more similar in ability than college basketball
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11-03-16 09:45 PM #4
great question been wondering for years to be honest I seen some games and the lines I just think wtf is going on here looks almost suspect
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11-03-16 09:45 PM #5
the sharpest line i see for friday is charlotte at nets, but some line movement may give nets a 1 point edge
the total and line are both spot on
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11-03-16 09:47 PM #6
Not sure when people will realize it's 5 times as hard to beat sports like NFL and NBA as opposed to leagues with less name recognition and following plus more teams (NCAA sports, International basketball, AFL or whatever)
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11-03-16 09:53 PM #7
Damn nice job on the trivia powell
Originally Posted by TPowell
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11-03-16 09:55 PM #8
Because it is easy to manipulate 1 point at a time as close to the line as needed via free throws
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11-03-16 10:19 PM #9
Cannot beat them Lakerboy plus these home teams are brutal to beat
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11-04-16 10:59 AM #10
As stated above, it's hard to cap because it's easy to price up. The lines themselves a very predictable from one day to the next, but knowing which side to bet pfft.
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11-04-16 11:01 AM #11
Tonight Washington seems like an obvious play
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11-04-16 11:08 AM #12
keep those huge moneylines comin lol Originally Posted by Otters27
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11-04-16 11:08 AM #13
They're replacing T.Burke in the rotation with Satoransky. I said they should have done this prior to the last game. Good move. Overdue.
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11-04-16 11:12 AM #14
what makes WAS an obvious play, may I know?.. Ohh just because they have been beaten by ATL in their last meeting or may be because WAS team is in complete disarray having lost their first 3 games! Originally Posted by jjgold
I don't really understand who is your friend or foe in this vicious world of Gambling..
Why the whole media (you included JJ) is hell bent on fooling around with public by swinging line movement in favor of WAS when we all know deep inside that ATL is the clear favorite in this game?.. Why?
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11-04-16 11:18 AM #15
You really do say some ridiculous things here lol Originally Posted by TPowell
If it were easy to handicap, it would be easy to win. The "sharp lines" are evident that is not the case. Vegas bookmakers LOVE the NBA it is their cash cow. You really think it is easy to handicap? If that is the case please start an NBA thread and share your NBA winners with us. PLEASE!!!
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11-04-16 11:19 AM #16
Teams smaller. Less players. More available info that can be calculated into a reliable line. Joey fukin Crawford.
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11-04-16 11:20 AM #17
I think you miss the point. When JJ says it seems like an obvious play, I hear fade that play. "Obvious" plays are to be faded Originally Posted by coolguy73739
Points Awarded:
coolguy73739 gave sportsfan9698 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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11-04-16 11:24 AM #18
Sport if you read his second post I believe what he was saying is that it's too easy for the oddsmakers to get a closer line.. Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
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11-04-16 11:26 AM #19
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11-04-16 11:26 AM #20
I agree... but when he said "The NBA is easy to cap" well I was laughing... you understand. Originally Posted by trillz
NBA and NFL by far the HARDEST to cap effectively. Lines are sharp and Books make out like thieves
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11-04-16 11:26 AM #21
Believe he meant easy to cap as in on paper team x dominates y. Problem is the books know this all to well and put out trap lines to take advantage. Good current example would be the Pacers. Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
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11-04-16 11:31 AM #22
We are all in agreement... I have been admonished 3 times now. I agree
So the OP question has been answered.
Did you also know, that the NBA is the favored sport to wager among actual professional gamblers? Not the NFL. That is because once you manage to gain an edge, it pays off in spades. The public holds the line down and it is easy to win once you find that edge.
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11-04-16 11:34 AM #23
The books don't no shit. That's the point! I could price up these games in my sleep. They don't trap, that's a myth. If you're suggesting some bookie clerk at Will Hill or 5Dimes has a good idea which team will cover, then I ask why does he not quit his job and make a fortune betting pro?
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11-04-16 11:45 AM #24
NBA is VERY easy to handicap. That's why the lines are so damn tight. Anybody can get info on anything they want because it is so well followed. The sport is easier to handicap but due to that, the lines are much tighter. On the other side, college sports are harder to cap because you don't have time to follow all the teams and learn the ins and outs of them. Injury info is much harder to come by BUT the lines aren't as sharp Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
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11-04-16 11:46 AM #25
Do you know how lines are made and then manipulated? There is a single book that has a collection of very sharp oddsmakers... currently BETONLINE usually puts out the first numbers. It is usually pretty close to where it needs to be. From there, they number moves a bit up or down to balance action. Algorithms pretty much take care of it after the line is released. Originally Posted by IBetYou
Do the books get balanced action on all games? of course not... but they try to do just that. They are more concerned with getting balanced action from a certain set of clients... what most would say the sharps. So that is what makes me laugh so hard when ANYBODY on this forum claims this side is the sharp side, or that side is the square side. They balance the action of the sharp players. Sometimes the square money gets lucky and hurts them... but most often they lose.
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11-04-16 11:50 AM #26
Lb do you mean in general or specifically this year?
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11-04-16 11:50 AM #27
Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
lol BetOnline is horrible. Their limits are absolute garbage at open because the lines they open with aren't even in the ballpark a lot of times.
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11-04-16 11:55 AM #28
I agree not a great book. but the fact is that they put out the first odds... and the giants watch and see how the action goes before they put up their first number. Originally Posted by TPowell
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11-04-16 11:55 AM #29
There is a single book that has a collection of very sharp oddsmakers...
And what book would that be? Where did you read this? Bet online are a fairly new company, and they don't take bets from winners. I can't believe they have any sway.
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11-04-16 11:57 AM #30
You're contradicting yourself now. Before you stated lines are influenced only by sharps. You think sharps do $100 bets at Betonline. Give me a break Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
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11-04-16 11:58 AM #31
Most sharps get booted quick at BetOnline as well. I plan on opening an account soon but not sure its worth it for a limited amount of wagers
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11-04-16 11:59 AM #32
Most books nowadays outscource to companies like KAMBI, because the margins are so tight that they can't afford to develop & maintain a specialised workforce for their IP betting.
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11-04-16 12:12 PM #33
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11-04-16 12:27 PM #34
NBA totals are usually insanely sharp, 90% of my bets are totals. If you take note most of the nba totals are insanely close a point sometimes 2...a close game and your on a under can be deadly due to fouls...
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11-04-16 12:40 PM #35
check this out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md05Qdvjkyo
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