1. 07-01-16 07:02 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Friday, 7/1/16

    3 MLB Plays Friday

    Rays +107 (Heritage)
    White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 233-249-10, -9.26
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  2. 07-01-16 07:35 AM #2
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Washington 66% (-194)
    Boston 62% (-163)
    Houston 66% (-194)
    St. Louis 63% (-170)
    San Francisco 62% (-163)
    Oakland 60% (-150)

    Yes I am aware that the Angels have apparent value vs. Boston, but I am just not sure if I want to bet them yet.
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  3. 07-01-16 07:37 AM #3
    innovation
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    Mets by a crooked number

    side with you on Rays as well

    GL LT
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  4. 07-01-16 08:00 AM #4
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by innovation View Post
    Mets by a crooked number

    side with you on Rays as well

    GL LT
    Mets you say? Also Royals
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  5. 07-01-16 08:06 AM #5
    LT Profits
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    Model loved Mets last night and I ignored it because of extreme variance, but tonight it has Cubs 52% (-108)

    Model almost never likes the Royals and tonight is no exception, Kansas City only 51% (-104)
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  6. 07-01-16 08:08 AM #6
    jz833
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    What does model show on Indians/bluejays
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  7. 07-01-16 08:39 AM #7
    PorkChop
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    Love the Under 9 in Houston.

    No reason WhiteSox should be +150 either.
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  8. 07-01-16 08:54 AM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by jz833 View Post
    What does model show on Indians/bluejays
    Toronto 51% (-104)

    I am not crazy about real line running away so much from Cleveland model number though.
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  9. 07-01-16 08:58 AM #9
    funnyb25
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    Called it....smyly...
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  10. 07-01-16 09:06 AM #10
    funnyb25
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    Will this be smyly's 5th start so u review him after and get him the fock out of your predicted auto plays? Lol
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  11. 07-01-16 09:14 AM #11
    gpet1984
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    You realize you look like a fool blasting a play LT has a substantial edge on. If the line closed this moment I'd be dying to get that price on TB.
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  12. 07-01-16 09:16 AM #12
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    You realize you look like a fool blasting a play LT has a substantial edge on. If the line closed this moment I'd be dying to get that price on TB.
    You new to the thread? Welcome man...BOL on all your plays
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  13. 07-01-16 09:25 AM #13
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    You new to the thread? Welcome man...BOL on all your plays
    Really not new followed him over last 3 years just don't post much. Don't see the point of blasting plays that 70 percent of the time beat the close. It's like seeing a sale in the store and saying your getting ripped off. BOL to you as well its all about winning money not bashing people!
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  14. 07-01-16 09:33 AM #14
    funnyb25
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    He beats the closing number more like 90% of the time and down 10 units...lol
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  15. 07-01-16 09:40 AM #15
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    Really not new followed him over last 3 years just don't post much. Don't see the point of blasting plays that 70 percent of the time beat the close. It's like seeing a sale in the store and saying your getting ripped off. BOL to you as well its all about winning money not bashing people!
    There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120
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  16. 07-01-16 09:40 AM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Will this be smyly's 5th start so u review him after and get him the fock out of your predicted auto plays? Lol
    He actually looks pretty good to me except for the home runs allowed, which is the sole reason for his struggles. The guy is combining an excellent strikeout rate of 10.04 per nine innings with a good walk rate of 2.01. Yes the insane 15.8% HR/FB rate is concerning, but you'd figure he would be better at home in a pitcher's park in Tampa and he has been with a home xFIP of 3.41 (vs. 4.25 on the road)

    And then there is Fulmer, who I actually like but he is not as good as his Kershaw-like run lately. He has been lucky with an unrealistic 86.2 strand rate so far and he has a relatively low .260 BABIP allowed. His xFIP is only 4.07, which is actually worse than Smyly's overall xFIP of 3.90.
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  17. 07-01-16 09:41 AM #17
    funnyb25
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    I'm not bashing LT as a person. Great guy. Its.more about his stubbornness to adjust to losing with the same pitchers every start.
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  18. 07-01-16 09:41 AM #18
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    He beats the closing number more like 90% of the time and down 10 units...lol
    He can't control what happens all he can control is value and his edge. Come on now I don't know what your value wagering on if you want to go against line movement and closing lines your going to go broke. It's also a third of the season in give it time mathematically hes guaranteed to come out ahead at season end if he continues to have the edge he does. I don't want to argue I just don't get the point of blasting him in his thread.
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  19. 07-01-16 09:44 AM #19
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120
    If you can beat Pinnys closing line you have a edge on the bet I'd say 80% of the time and yes that correlates to winning money over the long term. Again not trying to argue I just don't get why people have to blast a guy in his thread he can do what he wants with his money.
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  20. 07-01-16 09:44 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120
    Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.
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  21. 07-01-16 09:46 AM #21
    funnyb25
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    Already know for tomorrow he will be on Phillies or the under or both. Cy Nola pitching. LT's favorite pitcher
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  22. 07-01-16 09:47 AM #22
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.
    Thank you
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  23. 07-01-16 09:47 AM #23
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.
    What you getting for the Braves. I'm seeing -125 on 1 of my books.
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  24. 07-01-16 09:53 AM #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    What you getting for the Braves. I'm seeing -125 on 1 of my books.
    I only get Atlanta 52% (-108) despite a sizable edge in the starting pitcher.
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  25. 07-01-16 09:58 AM #25
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I only get Atlanta 52% (-108) despite a sizable edge in the starting pitcher.
    yea Nicolino is terrible thats why I asked. ugh
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  26. 07-01-16 10:36 AM #26
    Nateboogy
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    Funnyb, your antics are getting old. You come in here and say the same thing every day. It's HIS system. If you don't like it, go get your own.
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  27. 07-01-16 10:39 AM #27
    RollinDo
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    Going with ChiSox +1.5 and Over 8.5
    Also Tigers are strong play.
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  28. 07-01-16 10:39 AM #28
    MickeyMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    I'm not bashing LT as a person. Great guy. Its.more about his stubbornness to adjust to losing with the same pitchers every start.
    Have you left your computer yet today?

    Do you set your alarm to wake up in the mornings before LT starts his thread?

    Do you stalk people in real life too?
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: JJJ
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  29. 07-01-16 10:55 AM #29
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyMan View Post
    Have you left your computer yet today?

    Do you set your alarm to wake up in the mornings before LT starts his thread?

    Do you stalk people in real life too?
    Wishing you the Bol on your plays today mickeyman!

    Busy day at work thus far but getting through it!
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  30. 07-01-16 11:09 AM #30
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.
    I do understand that, hence the high volume of plays. How fo you feel about people who spot bet but for large units?
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  31. 07-01-16 11:15 AM #31
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    Funnyb, your antics are getting old. You come in here and say the same thing every day. It's HIS system. If you don't like it, go get your own.
    Wishing you the Bol on your plays today and this 4th of July weekend Nate!
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  32. 07-01-16 11:55 AM #32
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Already know for tomorrow he will be on Phillies or the under or both. Cy Nola pitching. LT's favorite pitcher
    LOL. They are still letting this guy start???
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  33. 07-01-16 11:58 AM #33
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    LOL. They are still letting this guy start???
    wait for it...
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  34. 07-01-16 11:58 AM #34
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    2 MLB Additions

    5 MLB Plays Friday

    Rays +107 (Heritage)
    Tigers / Rays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Twins +100 (Heritage)
    Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
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  35. 07-01-16 12:13 PM #35
    cankid
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    Thanks have a profitable day.
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