[GoBlue77]

Fed shows why he's the goat and Murray shows why he's a bum

[jjgold]

tomorrow we are looking at Kerber and Serena parlay

[Lightning]

Even though they didn't go too well last night, it looks like a few people enjoyed reading the analysis so I'll post it here again.

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Ouch.

Pretty much all I can say after last night. Upon reflection though, there's probably not a lot I would've changed. I thought Murray would smash Tsonga with the crowd behind him, but he allowed him back into the match and then smashed him. The underlying stats indicated that Pouille/Berdych would be closer than I thought, which wasn't the case. Raonic played lights out tennis in the first two sets and then had a brainfade in the third and I lost by half a game. Fed/Cilic was possibly the only one I stuffed up - my data indicated both would be serving well but I interpreted that as 'fed would win the tiebreaks', rather than 'close game, hit the overs'. To sum up, I'm pissed but at the same time, those plays were based purely on data. I'm confident in the long run that the underlying stats would shine through.

I identified that break points were vital stats in the mens game, but what about the womens? Break points clearly didn't matter as much, because breaks of serve are much more common, and didn't affect the game as much as men. I was thinking about it though, while looking at the stats, and I came to the realisation that the reason women often get broken is because their serve is weaker than men. 'Duh', you're saying, 'that's obvious'.

I narrowed it down further. 90% of women are going to have a reasonably 'first serve won' %. That's because the first is a lot harder and faster, like men. Often, however, the second is a lot slower, and shorter. And I had this eureka moment, this sudden realisation, that I'd found that critical piece of data that pointed in the direction more than any other: second serve win %, with probably the second most important piece being: first serve in %.

The women who do better are the ones that a) land their first serves more often [because that equates to a higher likelihood of winning the point] and b) when they do have to bring out a second serve, they have a higher chance of winning than their opponent.

The only one who seems to seems to do really well with a lower second serve % is Serena Williams, but on closer inspection, that's often because she's landing 70%+ of her first serves and winning 80%+ of those. Who needs a second when you have the best first in women's tennis?

Example involving Williams: She smashed Beck 6-3, 6-0 in the third round. Her first serves in % was 74 and her second serve won % was 50. Compare that to Beck with 80% and 33%. It's interesting to note that although Beck landed 80%, she won only 40%. This is why second serve won% is the more important piece. Overall, Serena's chance of winning a point in that match were 77%, compared to Beck's meagre 39%. As expected, Serena dominated Beck's serve and did very well on her own.

In her last match, a much tighter 6-4, 6-4, she landed 69% and won 33% of her second. Pavlyuchenkova landed 72% and won 41%. If you didn't know the score, you'd possibly expect Pavlyuchenkova to win in a close match. Answer: Serena's first serve won % was a whopping 90%. In fairness to Pav, she looked very comfortable in all of the service games expect the ones she was broken in. Serena's overall chances of winning a point on serve were 72.3%, compared to Pav's 60.4%. NOTE though, the closer figures indicated a closer game, and it was.

ANGELIQUE KERBER VS. VENUS WILLIAMS

A lot of people are probably thinking, 'Kerber's going well', without ultimately knowing what's behind her success. Her YTD records (I couldn't find career records - the WTA website is garbage) show a 1st serve in % of 65 and a second serve won % of 50. Her numbers this wimbledon: 69% first serves in (first serve won numbers are almost identical to her YTD) and 59% first serves won. Boost your second serve won rate by 9%, and you're in a semi**. Her chance of winning a point this Wimbledon hovers just over 61%.

Take Venus. Her YTD shows 58% first serves in, and 47% first serves won. Her wimbledon stats show that she's operating at 64% and 45% respectively. Her first serve won % is about 4% higher. Her 1st serves in % is around 6% higher, but her second serves won % is 2% lower. Her overall chance of winning a point sits at 60%, 1% less than Kerber.

You're probably thinking, 1%? That's all that separates them in the end? Let's take a look at the bigger picture though. I said that second serve won % was more important. Angie is up 9%, Venus down by 2%. Angie is winning around 14-15% more second serves than Venus, and landing around 5% more first serves in. Look though - Angie has won EVERY MATCH in straight sets. Venus has had two matches go to third sets, and tiebreaks in all three of the others. It's clear that she's had to fight a lot harder than Angie.

I'll leave you with that, but before I move on, I'm going to suggest the obvious play.

- Kerber -3.5 games - $1.72 - TWO STAKES

It's just not statistical, it's also logical. She's looked amazing this tournament, and I'd be incredibly surprised if she didn't make the final.

**as a corollary, I'm not suggesting that these two numbers are the be-all and end all for predicting a match - that's far too simplistic. All I'm saying is that these two numbers make sense on both a statistical AND logical level.

SERENA WILLIAMS VS ELENA VESNINA

I'll start with the Russian. YTD says 64% and 47% (I'm hoping that if you got this far, you know what I'm talking about). Her tourney stats show 64% and 55%. A second serve won % boost of 8% and in a semi-final. Hmmm, this seems a little familiar.

Serena is possibly the only woman that bucks my mold a bit. She's got stats of 66% and 50% respectively in Wimbledon, while her YTD shows 60% and 49%. Her second serve won % hasn't really moved though. For the first time though, I'm going into first serves won %, rather than just first serves landed %. She's won EIGHTY PERCENT of first serves. That's freakish, and that's why her other stats that are relatively poor don't matter that much. Compare that to her YTD, and she's up around 8% in first serves won %.

Williams second set handicap: -2.5 games - $2.10 (SPORTSBET) - TWO STAKES

I think Serena wins this match, despite how well Vesnina has been playing. You can't compete with a first serve won % of 80. However, instead of taking her handicap straight, I'm taking the second set line. There are two main reasons for this: one is that Serena, despite her ability, has a habit of doing poorly in the first, and then smashing them in the rest of the match. Second reason is that excellent players who are 2-0 or 1-0 sets up generally dominate in the third or second set. Either she drops the first and plays hard in the second, or she wins the first and dominates the second (so I hope). I'm almost tempted to take the reverse +2.5 line for Vesnina in the first, because she has been playing well.

As another play, Sportsbet have ace lines up, and I'm going to make a play on that:

PLAYER B (Vesnina) total aces: OVER 3.5 - $1.87 - ONE STAKE

Vesnina has cleared this in every match she's played so far.

Challenger picks will be below, if I find any that I like.

Cheers

[Lightning]

Fade me now and hit Venus +3.5, Vesnina +2.5 and under 3.5 aces

[cryptocap]

*Serena Williams -5.5 @1.60 might have some value especially if she demolishes 1 set

*Venus has some fight in her...she could push this all the way

[maletaja]

Sry, but isnt weird to me, but seems like +200 line for Venus is too big spread vs Kerber. I think they are more equal
I liked Venus game against hardhitting Shvedova
+4,5 or +5,5 Venus is like free money or not?

Serena should be win like 6-4 6-2 easly, but reward for that isnt quite good. Should be watch semifinal statistic. is there any meltdown for Serena?Or Serena not giving spread anymore like early rounds. I just think Serena -5,5 could be some value

[jjgold]

Kerber playing great although Williams 5 time champ

Still lean Kerber

[ttwarrior1]

fed

[jjgold]

Fed down 1 set early

Needs to win set 2

[w@lt]

Are you fukking serious, Roger?? 3 set points and can't convert...

[w@lt]

Fed just needs to take care of his service games and wait for the openings from Raonic, which I think (hope) should happen.

[w@lt]

Errors starting to come for Raonic. Looks good for THE FEDERER.

[jjgold]

fed wins this match we wins tourney

[Steamroller]

Fed legs gone, literally.

[stackz125]

Need fed

[stackz125]

Hoping for a classic milos choke job

[stackz125]

Guy is done. What a mess. He should retire. Old fuk

[Steamroller]

Guy is done. What a mess. He should retire. Old fuk

[CanuckG]

McEnroe the DIFFERENCE MAKER FOR RAONIC

[blap10]

What are some good value plays for the Williams vs. Kerber final tomorrow?