[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Sunday

Astros -127 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Dodgers +104 (Heritage)


YTD: 183-192-9, -1.81

[LT Profits]

Astros -127 (Bookmaker)

I know, I know.

Bookmaker baited me by hanging less than -130, I am showing Astros as a 60%er with Keuchel back in form.

[mikefan1034]

I know, I know.

Bookmaker baited me by hanging less than -130, I am showing Astros as a 60%er with Keuchel back in form.

Keuchal back in form? Why lie LT. He's not in form what are u talking about. Since ur a liar saying he's back in form I'll help the forum out to prevent people from losing money or better yet avoiding the game completely. Keuchal since he's back in form according to u, last 2 starts u know the more recent stats. He's 0-2 allowing 7 runs on 16 hits in 13.5 innings. But yea he's back in form alright from a cy young season last year lol

[LT Profits]

Keuchal back in form? Why lie LT. He's not in form what are u talking about. Since ur a liar saying he's back in form I'll help the forum out to prevent people from losing money or better yet avoiding the game completely. Keuchal since he's back in form according to u, last 2 starts u know the more recent stats. He's 0-2 allowing 7 runs on 16 hits in 13.5 innings. But yea he's back in form alright from a cy young season last year lol

How about looking at things that actually MATTER!

Last four starts, 25 strikeouts vs. TWO walks in in 26.1 innings. Things will fall into place as long as that continues, he will be fine.

[mikefan1034]

How about looking at things that actually MATTER!

Last four starts, 25 strikeouts vs. TWO walks in in 26.1 innings. Things will fall into place as long as that continues, he will be fine.

I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Toronto 67% (-203)
Houston 61% (-156)
Cubs 72% (-257)
Boston 66% (-194)
Cleveland 63% (-170)
Washington 72% (-257)

[LT Profits]

I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so

I am sure you will if I lose, just like you always do. You obviously have no clue which stats are PREDICTIVE and which are not. Keuchel is now down to a 3.53 xFIP with that figure dropping in every start lately. You keep focusing on the hits allowed, but he won't keep allowing a .335 BABIP. And I haven't even gotten into Matt Moore being mostly a stiff this year.

[bonesesh]

Mike Fan is a true prick.

[JayDr3am]

LT you told me you didnt wager your 60%ers?.. do you really trust keuchel or are you just fishing to see if something bites?

[BlueJaysNation]

Hey LT, how do you feel about Astros -1.5 at +125?

[LT Profits]

LT you told me you didnt wager your 60%ers?.. do you really trust keuchel or are you just fishing to see if something bites?

My exact words were "almost never" because I almost never (there is that phrase again LOL) lay more than -130 on any single event and I hate extreme variance from my model, which is what happens when model has a 60%er (at least -150) and the real line is less than -130. This is one of those rare cases though where I actually expected to see a larger variance with Keuchel not looking good on his mainstream numbers, so I was not as hesitant to pull the trigger as usual.

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, how do you feel about Astros -1.5 at +125?

That actually seems like a nice play, I get -1.5 +110ish. Run Line would be a nice alternative if you cannot get -130 or less on ML. I would not recommend making both bets though, I do not think Astros deserve a double-dip here.

[BlueJaysNation]

Cool! Thanks!

[JayDr3am]

My exact words were "almost never" because I almost never (there is that phrase again LOL) lay more than -130 on any single event and I hate extreme variance from my model, which is what happens when model has a 60%er (at least -150) and the real line is less than -130. This is one of those rare cases though where I actually expected to see a larger variance with Keuchel not looking good on his mainstream numbers, so I was not as hesitant to pull the trigger as usual.

fair enough, GL today

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry if this has been asked a thousand times: Does you model factor in umpires in any way? Thanks.

[juicername]

I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so

Why have you not posted Rays as a play in your thread if you're so sure? Oh right, you don't want to be held accountable if it's a loss, only come back and say I told you so if it wins.

[LT Profits]

Sorry if this has been asked a thousand times: Does you model factor in umpires in any way? Thanks.

Yes, there is an Umpire field, but usually not for the opening game of a series. But once first game starts, all Umps are entered for rest of series.

[BiffTFinancial]

I know better than to doubt you, but you are a braver man than i for going under in Yankee Stadium today with that wind and 80 degrees. BOL today, LT!

[chosen4th]

I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so

And im sure if the astros win he wont be back to say anything

[funnyb25]

Has Urias been a play every start?

[LT Profits]

Has Urias been a play every start?

I bet him first two starts when Dodgers lost. He was too big a price so passed last time and Dodgers won.

Still, kid seemed to figure things out last time so hope he can duplicate that outing.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Has Urias been a play every start?

hate to say this but the kids is a flop so far. he'll probably get sent back to the minors soon.

[Ralphie1412]

Mikesfan get the penetrate out of here with that negative bullshit. LT even took a shot at himself. We all know Houston has costed him. You don't need to come in here and talk about it. Making fun of a gambling loss to someone who is nothing but polite and generous is pretty ****** up.

[jay89]

I'm on TB over 1.5 first five innings. TB batters mash vs left...but then you got matt moore starting for TB so could really go either way

[LT Profits]

hate to say this but the kids is a flop so far. he'll probably get sent back to the minors soon.

Did you miss his last start?

[LT Profits]

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Astros -127 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
Marlins / Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
Marlins / Diamondbacks UNDER 5.5 -120 (5 innings) (Bookmaker)
Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Dodgers +104 (Heritage)

[PorkChop]

Thoughts on A's +100?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Did you miss his last start?

i'm still not convinced. he's still young so i'm pretty sure he'll develop into a stud but i just don't see it yet.

[RavensFan2k3]

Adam Conley and Robbie Ray, how do you rate them?

[Nateboogy]

I have 9 and 4.5. Too far off i assume?

[funnyb25]

This ACE Kuechel... just gave up a hit and back to back walks all to batters with an average in the .100's

[LT Profits]

Adam Conley and Robbie Ray, how do you rate them?

Ray is better overall, I rate him above average, Conley right at average although he has improved since earlier in the year.

[funnyb25]

I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so

He will be back very very soon

[mikefan1034]

LT is such a fraud. Kid doesn't have a clue. Keuchal back in form? Lol yeah ok he obviously doesn't watch baseball or look at the right stats. Reason why he's down units 3 months into the season. "Back in form" lol I still can't believe u really thought keuchal was back in form lol

[funnyb25]

there he is