1. #1
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Views on the sports betting market: Dare to discuss?

    Do you place much credence in the sports betting market? Barring injury information or being able to get a "good" number," should moves in the marketplace be put on a pedestal to the degree that they often are?

    For the sake of maybe sparking an interesting conversation, define "what is the sports betting market?"

    "What do moves in the market represent?"

    Some might view the answers to these questions as elementary, but I'd disagree based upon the comments that I've seen many posters make over the years.

  2. #2
    Jayvegas420
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    This could get interesting if KVB checks in.
    I'm a dummy so simply assume that the public moves the line and sometimes it's square money & sometimes it sharp money.
    Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes late.
    I leave it to the real pros to sort through the rest.

    When I bet proline I get a fixed line that doesn't move, I lose as often as I do when I bet non-static lines.

    The larger the market, the more efficient it should be, right?

  3. #3
    CanuckG
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    This could get interesting if KVB checks in.
    I'm a dummy so simply assume that the public moves the line and sometimes it's square money & sometimes it sharp money.
    Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes late.
    I leave it to the real pros to sort through the rest.

    When I bet proline I get a fixed line that doesn't move, I lose as often as I do when I bet non-static lines.

    The larger the market, the more efficient it should be, right?
    Pro line is a scam

  4. #4
    shaunovery
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    Don't take much credence in the oddsmakers lines , I generally form my own line and go from there

  5. #5
    RudyRuetigger
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    the answers are elementary

  6. #6
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    I think the NBA is a decent sized market. Is it efficient though?

    A tout who decided hang up his shoes this year, was able to manipulate the market because he had a decent sized following and many of his followers were betting good money at larger shops. I know that some will say that he was not able to do it, but I tracked every play of his for a season and the line often moved between a half and a full point in a window 7 minutes following a release--with the exception. FYI, he was down units at the end of the year.

    His style of handicapping is considered to be rudimentary.

  7. #7
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunovery View Post
    Don't take much credence in the oddsmakers lines , I generally form my own line and go from there
    This is the camp that i am in.

  8. #8
    chunk
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    I've been at this a long time and really am not concerned with line moves other than trying to get the best possible price. I used to like to hit openers as soon as I could, but have found it to be more difficult to beat initial moves (some major markets, the line can be moved with as little as a $500 wager). Although I have been successful long term, when it comes to anticipating a move, I doubt that I am any better than 50%. I believe anyone that predicates wagers on line moves is barking up the wrong tree. I think that there are many reasons including possible shenanigans that influence movement even assuming no new prevalent information.

    I am estimating that although I beat the closer ~ 70% of the time(estimation), BCL is also an over blown concept. In short, I believe that anyone that truly (there aren't many ) handicaps their own games, aren't all that concerned with line moves or BCL.

    I'm guessin

  9. #9
    PorkChop
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    It's completely rigged & scripted.

    Take your fan goggles off

  10. #10
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Could you explain why you think it is completely rigged and scripted?

    I would not argue against the occasional head fake to take out competition (books not players).

  11. #11
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanuckG View Post
    Pro line is a scam
    OF course it is. I was trying to explain how beating the closing line isn't as important as some may think

  12. #12
    Bill Dozer
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    Quote Originally Posted by chunk View Post
    I've been at this a long time and really am not concerned with line moves other than trying to get the best possible price. I used to like to hit openers as soon as I could, but have found it to be more difficult to beat initial moves (some major markets, the line can be moved with as little as a $500 wager). Although I have been successful long term, when it comes to anticipating a move, I doubt that I am any better than 50%. I believe anyone that predicates wagers on line moves is barking up the wrong tree. I think that there are many reasons including possible shenanigans that influence movement even assuming no new prevalent information.

    I am estimating that although I beat the closer ~ 70% of the time(estimation), BCL is also an over blown concept. In short, I believe that anyone that truly (there aren't many ) handicaps their own games, aren't all that concerned with line moves or BCL.

    I'm guessin
    Lines are tight these days but people became millionaires from nothing in the early 2000s beating closing lines. Depending on what market the line is for, you usually just have to get 10c worth of line in your favor. Back then they were getting 40c. Easier said than done today. Especially at volume.

  13. #13
    iifold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    Lines are tight these days but people became millionaires from nothing in the early 2000s beating closing lines. Depending on what market the line is for, you usually just have to get 10c worth of line in your favor. Back then they were getting 40c. Easier said than done today. Especially at volume.
    Is this an admission that we are wasting our time betting?

  14. #14
    Bill Dozer
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post

    Is this an admission that we are wasting our time betting?
    Nah, its a waste of time to watch a game that doesnt matter

    But aiming to be a pro? It's kind of like starting a career repairing fax machines or DVD players.

    There a similar threads going on right now. I dont think you can straight pick winners and win long term.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    People think of linesmakers as these actuaries with proprietary million dollar programs. Ive been talking to some of the top bookmakers as they happen to be setting lines and they literally have said, what do you think about this game, total of 202? We talk for a little while more during halftime... eh -5 sounds good right? I say how the hell do I know? Eh make it 5.5. Lines are coming out so fast and some books rather be first or on the early side than worry about taking a few bets on soft numbers. You can see it on thin markets. An MLB team will open at -130 and then a few hours later its 190. NBA totals are moving 5 points. No one got hurt on those teams. No all-stars were added...openers are just openers.

    There are 3 ways to make money in sports betting. 1) bet openers. 2) bet line moves (some books see you as a trader or the scum of the earth. 3) Get inside info (create the line moves mentioned in #2).

  15. #15
    chunk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    Lines are tight these days but people became millionaires from nothing in the early 2000s beating closing lines. Depending on what market the line is for, you usually just have to get 10c worth of line in your favor. Back then they were getting 40c. Easier said than done today. Especially at volume.
    Agree. You can still scrape out a few bucks, but the good old days are gone for large markets anyway.

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