[Ebe]

So Im gonna post all the picks and track all the plays here. Very excited about this.

[Ebe]

College Hoops

Florida -8.5
Oakland +7
Eastern Shore +25.5
Samford +1
Eastern Kentucky +6.5
Aarkansas State +8
Pittsburgh -1
New Mexico -10.5
LBSU +3.5

[Ebe]

NBA

Cavs -9.5
Nets +3.5
Pelicans -1
Pelicans/Grizzlies under 201
Blazers/Mavs under 201

[Ebe]

NFL

Lions +3
Lions/Packers under 46.5

Thats it for now. May be adding some more later.

[a4u2fear]

Ebe, i'm skeptical, only because you're posting multi-sports and I'd even be skeptical if it worked for just one to start

how did you backtest?

how did you develop it with what sport, etc.

[Ebe]

I havent baacktested it. I guess you could say I developed it with all sports simultaenously.

[bostonbruins]

All betting "systems" are a result of apophenia

[KVB]

All betting "systems" are a result of apophenia

When applying this generalization to the sportsbetting markets be careful not to make the fateful mistake of attributing to random chance what is actually related patterns of results.

Sportsbetting is not roulette or the lottery.

This is an excellent example of why bettors never learn from their mistakes. They often never realize they made one.

[bostonbruins]

So you're defending a blind bet system not considering current matchups , conditions, injuries, etc.. how do you backtest something that changes constantly.

[KVB]

So you're defending a blind bet system not considering current matchups , conditions, injuries, etc.. how do you backtest something that changes constantly.

Not sure if this was addressed towards me but just in case let me say that I wasn't defending the OP or the system. I was simply addressing apophenia when applied to the sports markets.

As far as this thread, how do we know current matchups, conditions, injuries, and others aren't being considered? I suppose Ebe would have to answer to that.

Maybe the word "system" isn't clearly defined. Maybe a system is one because there is blind betting. I could see that viewpoint.

As far as the backtesting something that changes constantly I would suggest keeping meticulous records on the nature of those changes, developing an understanding of those changes, and then finding relevant relationships so you can incorporate them into a strategy, line, or opinion.

Things happen for a reason and deciphering cause and effect where appropriate is something that often separates successful strategies from the rest of the herd.

Of course, those who are stuck, for whatever reason, thinking sports betting is only random and arbitrary, and can't present anything else, have a limited chance of breaking through as there are constructs in the mind that must first be broken down.

Successful sportsbetting over the long haul is not easy by it's very nature, and ours.

[statnerds]

So you're defending a blind bet system not considering current matchups , conditions, injuries, etc.. how do you backtest something that changes constantly.

why should he consider the items on your list?

everything you listed, and more, is already in the price. the market does all of that work for you.

as for a system, no chance. if you are naive enough to believe you uncovered an inefficiency in every major sports market that the sharpest of the sharp or the most successful syndicates haven't already discovered and stamped out of existence you are borderline insane.

[agendaman]

somehow mathematics has to enter all systems

[KVB]

why should he consider the items on your list?

everything you listed, and more, is already in the price. the market does all of that work for you.

as for a system, no chance. if you are naive enough to believe you uncovered an inefficiency in every major sports market that the sharpest of the sharp or the most successful syndicates haven't already discovered and stamped out of existence you are borderline insane.

Agreed, the lines are bound to catch up to the bettor eventually, even if the efficiency of the markets slip up now and again (and, of course, it always does). Time of season is also a factor here.

The OP may be on to something, but he'd probably be better off already trying to determine adjustments in order to identify and stay ahead, even if slightly, of the adjustments that the oddsmakers will be forced to make.

One other thing, the OP may not be exploiting an inefficiency. He may simply be taking temporary bait from the markets, which could actually be the result of efficient lines, in which case, he should quit if he gets ahead even a couple of bets...these things have a way of cathing up to bettors.

Good Luck.

[GunShard]

The only system that works that I have noticed is fading the public.
If it feels like a lock and everyone is all over the lock. Fade the lock.

[KVB]

The only system that works that I have noticed is fading the public.
If it feels like a lock and everyone is all over the lock. Fade the lock.

Correct, fading the public is age old gambling advice going back decades. There are a couple of simple NFL Total principles that also produce consistently. Unfortunately, there are only a handful of opportunities each year. Parameters can be set for such a thing with the NFL Total markets without an inefficiency being "stamped out" because of the unusual nature of scoring in the NFL.

I've noticed that when the betting public begins to catch on books demoralize them and it's back to business as usual. I suppose the new extra point rules may influence this "system" but it doesn't seem likely.

The oddsmakers and books choose when to float that system play and when not too. They know exactly what they are doing and split the money on those games so they can tolerate the players that win betting into it.

Thankfully too, for if they didn't, it wouldn't work.

[agendaman]

your nba pks/ already lost 3/5

[Ebe]

what about the college hoops picks

[Ebe]

college hoops was 6-3

nba 1-4 because of that stinking overtime in the blazers game that cost me over 2200

not a cappy hamper at the moment

[aston]

college hoops was 6-3

nba 1-4 because of that stinking overtime in the blazers game that cost me over 2200

not a cappy hamper at the moment

Ebe

Just a thought I think your system would work better with just one sport

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Do not push the envelope Ebe.

Thanks,
Morris

[charcoalbbq]

All systems will close in towards 50% because they are stale. Often novice bettors think they have discovered a gold mine based on a hot streak but sooner or later they will see that everything will close towards 50% or less. If something works and if the system stays stale the lines and books will adjust.

If you want to make money long term in sports betting stick to the picks and money management advice from bettingresource.com It is actually very simple, you just need self control and you will reap the profit.

I laugh every-time i see clowns like RAS and DrBob are considered the best cappers in the industry.

[ClippersSux]

Keep track of your bets and see if your'e beating the closing line (use Pinnacle). You should be beating the closing number around 60%. After 500 plays, if you are not consistently beating the closing number, what you have is randomness.

[KVB]

I produce a forecast for each game and the lines move toward my line the majority of the time. When it doesn't, I usually know why. There was a great example of this through CFL season in the CFL thread.

Beating the closing lines may be an indicator of future success but unfortunately that doesn't guarantee winners. It's much better understand why the line opens where it does and moves where it moves.

Even very simple, unsophisticated models can beat the closing lines more the 60% of the time with ease. It's a matter of understanding the relevant factors that go into the creation of the line.

Also, each season, in nearly every sport, goes through regular phases whereby oddsmakers and bookmakers use the betting public's knowledge against them.

There is always give and take...another reason why we see so much 50-50.

[Ebe]

Considering just utilizing this for college and not NBA

Sseems like it works for NCAAB but not NBA for some reason

Which would make sense, NBA is so fishy

Anyway, heres todays

[Ebe]

Hornets +9
Wizards -10
Hawks -3
Pacers +1.5

[Ebe]

St Bonaventure -2
Tenn Tech -2
Towson +1.5
Penn St +1
Penn St under 134
Tulsa +2.5
Texas STate -10
TCU +6
Creighton -8
Florida St +5
Utah -8.5

[Ebe]

Correction to penn st total

Its over 132 not under 134

[BigdaddyQH]

You have no chance. You play way too many games to be successful. I do not know if you know any people who are successful gamblers in the long run, but if you do, they will tell you that the more games you play, the tougher the chance of making a profit. Give it up while you still have some money. As many people in here have stated, you MUST cut down on the number of games you wager. You also are terribly mistaken about how the odds are created.

[Ebe]

What did I say about how the odds are created? I havent even spoken of that. Who are you talking to?

I do agree, this is too many games. Im just trying to track this system, Im not betting all these games. I am considering adding additional filters.

The foundation of the system applies to College Hoops well and is very solid. I am solid it can hit around 57-62% minimum with a decent sample size.

[ClippersSux]

62% LOL. Pipe dream. Your system is not hitting 62% over a large number of plays. Come back to the forum and report to us when the system has made over 500 plays.

[Ebe]

This thing is absolute money for college hoops

about to throw it out the window on nba

[Ebe]

St Bonaventure -2 push
Tenn Tech -2
Towson +1.5 w
Penn St +1 w
Penn St under 134 w
Tulsa +2.5 w
Texas STate -10 w
TCU +6 w
Creighton -8
Florida St +5
Utah -8.5

holy crap

[Ebe]

6-0-1 so far today

6-3 yesterday

thats 12-3-1 last 16

[agendaman]

as the poster said come back after 500 or even better a 1000 plays you will go thru incredible losing streaks but I wish you well

[Ebe]

College Hoops 8-2-1 today