1. #1
    The Kraken
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    Oklahoma is Covered in Ice Today

    This probably benefits OU a little bit as Okie State can't run the ball well, and they rely on the big play to score

    But more than that, I'm not sure how either of these teams are going to score much

    Current weather is 30 degrees and raining

    Last night it rained all night and froze (some 60,000 people without power), field will be shit, even running the ball will be hard, catching the ball will be torturous, any hit will fell like bones broke

    Logic says to play the under, this weather wasn't factored into the line

    2 Units on the Under
    1 Unit on OU ATS



  2. #2
    Vegas39
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    You go for game Kraken?

  3. #3
    The Kraken
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    Can't Vegas, in Seattle now. Still own a few houses in Oklahoma so I gotta keep up with freezing weather though.

    If I was in OKlahoma, I would probably go to the game. It wouldn't be the most comfortable but this should be a great atmosphere.

  4. #4
    Vegas39
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    GL on your bets
    Points Awarded:

    The Kraken gave Vegas39 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    jjgold
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    under

    ice is something that does affect a game

  6. #6
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    ...Logic says to play the under, this weather wasn't factored into the line...


    Good luck on your bets Kraken but there is no evidence that this statement is true. In fact, there is evidence otherwise.


    I think you are taking generalizations and trying to apply them to specific situations, a habit that you as a poster may have.

    In this case, I don’t believe you know what this line “should” be and I don’t believe you understand the necessary adjustments to said line to account for field conditions at closing time.

    But you still think weather wasn’t factored into the line. Why, because it rained last night and was cold? This simply isn’t the case.

    Many posters may be, and have been, getting away with many forms of social analysis based on some author’s opinion or their own, with little real world corroboration, it happens around here.

    But valid line analysis requires real evidence; few know what that is and making some up won’t lead to winners.

    Good Luck with the bets.


  7. #7
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Krak, what's a house in Oklahoma cost?

    Are these for investment porpoises?

  8. #8
    The Kraken
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    Right now Moe, housing prices have gone down a bit due to so many layoffs in the oil and gas industry. Supply is up, demand is down.

    In general it's cheap to buy Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. $/sqft is low and land is plentiful. We love owning there but not having to live there anymore. But when we did live there we didn't mind it.

    As for cost, it always is multi-factorial and includes location, size, land, market, etc......Too much to throw out a generic #, but a range would probably be between &60k-$1M

  9. #9
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Good luck on your bets Kraken but there is no evidence that this statement is true. In fact, there is evidence otherwise.


    I think you are taking generalizations and trying to apply them to specific situations, a habit that you as a poster may have.

    In this case, I don’t believe you know what this line “should” be and I don’t believe you understand the necessary adjustments to said line to account for field conditions at closing time.

    But you still think weather wasn’t factored into the line. Why, because it rained last night and was cold? This simply isn’t the case.

    Many posters may be, and have been, getting away with many forms of social analysis based on some author’s opinion or their own, with little real world corroboration, it happens around here.

    But valid line analysis requires real evidence; few know what that is and making some up won’t lead to winners.

    Good Luck with the bets.

    You're correct that I don't know what the line should be but I have a pretty good idea of what goes into setting lines. I no longer keep DB's nor do I cap.

    I believe you could lighten up a bit and have fun. It's Saturday, it's beautiful here in Seattle and there's plenty of good games on.

    Now prove you're really as smart as you think you are and go take the Under

  10. #10
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    You're correct that I don't know what the line should be but I have a pretty good idea of what goes into setting lines. I no longer keep DB's nor do I cap.

    I believe you could lighten up a bit and have fun. It's Saturday, it's beautiful here in Seattle and there's plenty of good games on.

    Now prove you're really as smart as you think you are and go take the Under
    lol...when I write it often sounds so serious...lol

    Actually, when I wrote that post I was looking at an entirely different game. It still sort of applies but you are not, in my opinion, in nearly the error I thought you were.

    That said, I think the oddsmakers tried to account for weather here but a voracious poublic tied with manipulators sent the line upward. The books took action and now we see them heading write back toward the opener.

    Because of some manipulation, this could be read a couple of ways so it's not so easy.

    Basically, like I said, you get a bit of a pass here as I was looking at the wrong game. But just a bit...lol

    So are you renting those houses? Are you using a property manager since so far away? I would hope they aren't sitting empty.

    Nomination(s):
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  11. #11
    Otters27
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    I am on OK State. Didn't even know there was going to be bad weather

  12. #12
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    You're correct that I don't know what the line should be but I have a pretty good idea of what goes into setting lines. I no longer keep DB's nor do I cap.

    I believe you could lighten up a bit and have fun. It's Saturday, it's beautiful here in Seattle and there's plenty of good games on.

    Now prove you're really as smart as you think you are and go take the Under
    You can get a pretty nice house here for a lot cheaper than what it would cost in other ares of the country. I remember last time I was I was in New York city the cab driver was astonished at how cheap a square foot was in Oklahoma compared to New York....

    Anyway, as for the ice, I have no ice here. Just rain. I thought most of the ice was going to stay in West and Southwest Oklahoma.

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    You can get a pretty nice house here for a lot cheaper than what it would cost in other ares of the country. I remember last time I was I was in New York city the cab driver was astonished at how cheap a square foot was in Oklahoma compared to New York....

    Anyway, as for the ice, I have no ice here. Just rain. I thought most of the ice was going to stay in West and Southwest Oklahoma.
    California pretty high priced compared to the midwest too.

    Kraken do you travel there to see the property before buying? It sounds like you used to live there, that knowledge certainly helps.

  14. #14
    POISON
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    I'm an Oklahoma State fan but unfortunately live in Norman. Just watched the Okc local weather guy on CBS affiliate and they say it'll be raining for sure during the game and will likely change to freezing rain or ice as temps within 1-2 degrees right now and will get colder. As for the line having this factored in when the line opened is ridiculous. Early in the week there was only a 10-20% chance of RAIN. It's going to be nasty. I hope Osu wins, but the crummy run game won't help in this game. Hope Rudolph can pass in this mess as Oklahoma State has better recevers

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by POISON View Post
    I'm an Oklahoma State fan but unfortunately live in Norman. Just watched the Okc local weather guy on CBS affiliate and they say it'll be raining for sure during the game and will likely change to freezing rain or ice as temps within 1-2 degrees right now and will get colder. As for the line having this factored in when the line opened is ridiculous. Early in the week there was only a 10-20% chance of RAIN. It's going to be nasty. I hope Osu wins, but the crummy run game won't help in this game. Hope Rudolph can pass in this mess as Oklahoma State has better recevers
    Good post, factoring the weather isn't totally ridiculous even that far out (predicting the weather is, but putting it into the line is different).

    Indeed this line has dropped to the lowest we've seen. The oddsdmakers and early line guys did what they could, but that manipulaition is another tip off.

    Excellent on the ground posts regarding local conditions, hopefully this game doesn't middle the lines. At one point, money will take the Over, possibly at 65 or 65.5.


  16. #16
    mr. leisure
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    Weather isn`t looking too bad .

  17. #17
    TwoWays
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    Might be good spot to fade the thunder?

  18. #18
    jjgold
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    Field seems fine

    We jumped the gun without consulting weather hourly

  19. #19
    AceChampion
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    What did this total open at?

  20. #20
    trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceChampion View Post
    What did this total open at?
    line was 66.5 when he posted his info.ideas

    closed at 62


    Well done on the info no matter how you slice it up...

    gives chances at a middle good position or whatever when you have that many points versus the closer.

    -----

    now it appears this will be a track meet sort of game as it turns out

  21. #21
    The Kraken
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    Phones at 1% so I cant respond other than



    Under is smoked in the 1Q, total of 24 pts

    Logic

  22. #22
    CONNEMARA
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    I'm in Alaska. 60k will by me a garage.

  23. #23
    jjgold
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    shoot out

    Playing conditions perfect

    most of the time just the opposite

  24. #24
    mr. leisure
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    51 points so far

  25. #25
    jjgold
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    Okl can beat Bama

    They are loaded

  26. #26
    JameisBrady
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    This probably benefits OU a little bit as Okie State can't run the ball well, and they rely on the big play to score

    But more than that, I'm not sure how either of these teams are going to score much

    Current weather is 30 degrees and raining

    Last night it rained all night and froze (some 60,000 people without power), field will be shit, even running the ball will be hard, catching the ball will be torturous, any hit will fell like bones broke

    Logic says to play the under, this weather wasn't factored into the line

    2 Units on the Under
    1 Unit on OU ATS


    another clueless seattle homer buried

  27. #27
    Nagz
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    This probably benefits OU a little bit as Okie State can't run the ball well, and they rely on the big play to score

    But more than that, I'm not sure how either of these teams are going to score much

    Current weather is 30 degrees and raining

    Last night it rained all night and froze (some 60,000 people without power), field will be shit, even running the ball will be hard, catching the ball will be torturous, any hit will fell like bones broke

    Logic says to play the under, this weather wasn't factored into the line

    2 Units on the Under
    1 Unit on OU ATS


    I see the ice everywhere................... Looks like penetrating Alaska out there and everyone is slipping.......







    In the endzone

  28. #28
    yisman
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    Rudolph barely played, as well

    Some people not happy here: http://streak.espn.go.com/en/convers...atchupId=44552

  29. #29
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    Anyway, as for the ice, I have no ice here. Just rain. I thought most of the ice was going to stay in West and Southwest Oklahoma.
    Looks like the ice stayed away.


  30. #30
    The Kraken
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    I just hoped everyone in here listened to me and took Oklahoma

  31. #31
    Nagz
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    I just hoped everyone in here listened to me and took Oklahoma
    Everyone listened to you? Your whole post was about the under.... Please stop

  32. #32
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    This probably benefits OU a little bit as Okie State can't run the ball well, and they rely on the big play to score

    But more than that, I'm not sure how either of these teams are going to score much

    Current weather is 30 degrees and raining

    Last night it rained all night and froze (some 60,000 people without power), field will be shit, even running the ball will be hard, catching the ball will be torturous, any hit will fell like bones broke

    Logic says to play the under, this weather wasn't factored into the line

    2 Units on the Under
    1 Unit on OU ATS


    Quote Originally Posted by Nagz View Post

    Everyone listened to you? Your whole post was about the under.... Please stop
    I clearly stated to play OU and I hope you followed. If so, you won money with me tonight

  33. #33
    jjgold
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    Okl looks like best team in Country

  34. #34
    The Kraken
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    Thats what I said in OP JJ

  35. #35
    sjm5122
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    Lol On what planet does losing two units on the under and winning one unit on oklahoma allow people tailing to make money?

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