NFL road dog off a big win as a dog

[JMon]

I love researching situations. I'm a spot player and contrarian at heart so bear with me. I think the majority would assume to play a 'dog off a big win as a dog'! Reasoning...if they won as dog, huge in their previous game and now I'm getting points in their next game against an opt that lost their previous game; it seems like a lock?

So how do road dogs fair after a big margin win as a dog against an oppt that lost their previous game?

[seaborneq]

Which dog from week 1 are you talking about getting points this week?

[seaborneq]

Niners, Falcons or Titans?

[Vegas39]

Niners, Falcons or Titans?

Titans favored

[seaborneq]

Titans favored

The money is coming in on them then, because I thought I saw them getting +1.5 earlier.

[JMon]

love this song...

[JMon]

Which dog from week 1 are you talking about getting points this week?

still researching..

[JMon]

Dog off a dog win...not much there since '89...478-488-33 ATS! However what caught my eye the last couple of years... since 2013. 27-47-2 ATS!

Why the trend?

[JMon]

[Vegas39]

The money is coming in on them then, because I thought I saw them getting +1.5 earlier.

They are -1 most places now . Still +1 at heritage

[JMon]

got it!

road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

unique, no sample so beware.

8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!

[Vegas39]

got it!

road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

unique, no sample so beware.

8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!

Seattle

[JMon]

Ave line +6.09 and ave score...team 15.1 - oppt 26.3...over FG difference

[blackHIPPY]

got it!

road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

unique, no sample so beware.

8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!

Steelers

[JMon]

Seattle

lol...seattle was not a winner let alone a dog

[blackHIPPY]

Fading 9ers right ?

[JMon]

Steelers

boom! I was looking for the team to fade but!

[blackHIPPY]

I already bet them but this gave me a lot more confidence in my bet
thanks lets cash it

[JMon]

[JMon]

If you look at non conference play is sharpens it up.

While I'm putting small action them...please do not tail me and complain if it loses. Some plays lose. Bet responsible!

[jjgold]

nobody every got rich betting trends

some win and some lose

different years mean different situations

all random

[blackHIPPY]

might i add

steelers have had 9 days to prepare for this game while 9ers have only had 4
we have a west coast team traveling east for an early start, like 9 am their time

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Dog off a dog win...not much there since '89...478-488-33 ATS! However what caught my eye the last couple of years... since 2013. 27-47-2 ATS! Why the trend?

Statistical variance; most trends mean nothing.

[JMon]

got it!

road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

unique, no sample so beware.

8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!

This spot is active fading the Skins. We all seen the beat down Pit gave the 49ers last week, regardless I'm laying off this game. Good luck for those that choose to play it.

[ChiLLx]

This spot is active fading the Skins. We all seen the beat down Pit gave the 49ers last week, regardless I'm laying off this game. Good luck for those that choose to play it.

Gmen suck, but based on this trend it's them or no play.

[smitch124]

That ahole the Prick actually has Wash +4 as one of his plays.

[JMon]

That ahole the Prick actually has Wash +4 as one of his plays.

Seen that! Hope this spot hits again for our sake!

[JMon]

ugh...should have played it.

nonetheless, this spot has cleaned up. Going to post another lesson

[POOLSIDE]

Houston

[JMon]

Houston

Houston?

[POOLSIDE]

Yup. Home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a big dog. Houston is the play.

[JMon]

Yup. Home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a big dog. Houston is the play.

wow..just ran it. very nice! What is the "big dog" line? Margin?

[POOLSIDE]

wow..just ran it. very nice! What is the "big dog" line? Margin?

Sorry! Move the word big. I'll fix it. Sorry for the confusion!

Big home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a dog. Houston is the play.

In this case, let's call big >4

[ChiLLx]

Just to be clear the play is supposed to be: Fade road dog, off a big dog win of margin greater than 13 ATS...against a home team off a loss of less than 14 points?

[POOLSIDE]

Just to be clear the play is supposed to be: Fade road dog, off a big dog win of margin greater than 13 ATS...against a home team off a loss of less than 14 points?

That sounds about right, although I believe the home team having lost on the road is a perception factor. I'm not sure where the "loss of less than 14 points" came from though. Not saying it isn't, but I'm not aware of that stipulation being relevant.

For reference, see Pittsburgh last week. Home favorite after losing @Pats, facing an SF squad who just won straight up as a dog.

There were other helpful factors in that game that are, unfortunately, not present here. West coast team traveling east for a 10am game, and SF coming off a blowout Monday night victory (a trend that says take a look at Philly this week).