1. 09-14-15 11:44 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    CFB Plays - Week 3

    THURSDAY, 9/17
    Louisville +6 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 9-12, -3.60
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  2. 09-16-15 06:05 AM #2
    LT Profits
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    CFB Addition Saturday

    THURSDAY, 9/17
    Louisville +6 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
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  3. 09-16-15 06:10 AM #3
    LT Profits
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    Sorry that I simply forgot to post Auburn in this thread yesterday, I actually got +7.5 and posted the write-up on front page:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/coll...igers-a-61529/

    But I forgot to post it in the thread which I usually do first. Brain fart.

    Important note though is I think this line is so skrewed that it still have value at +6.5. Model has it at +4.88.
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  4. 09-16-15 08:06 AM #4
    LT Profits
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    More CFB Additions Saturday

    THURSDAY, 9/17
    Louisville +6 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
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  5. 09-16-15 12:26 PM #5
    BigdaddyQH
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    Auburn +7.5 is a very good play. I can't see LSU running over any decent team. They barely got past Miss. State, the team that I consider to be the worst in the SEC West. Les Miles is 1-12 ATS in Conference home openers and 1-4 ATS against Auburn in his last 5 tries. Auburn has a lot of work to do to convince people they are a legitimate contender after last week's fiasco.

    I do not like the situation that Duke is in. This certainly falls into the catagory of a potential "look ahead game" with Ga. Tech visiting next week while Northwestern gets Ball State.

    Va. Tech should cover, but I would definately pass on Miami O and Texas State.
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  6. 09-16-15 12:28 PM #6
    mcgeezer1883
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    Reason for taking Louisville??? I'm just not seeing it...
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  7. 09-16-15 12:38 PM #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcgeezer1883 View Post
    Reason for taking Louisville??? I'm just not seeing it...
    Clemson overvalued after routing two cupcakes, Louisville undervalued after getting caught in a sandwich game between Auburn and this ACC opener. Looks like classic case of Buy Low, Sell High.
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  8. 09-16-15 01:12 PM #8
    Michiganboy24
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    Reason for taking Duke over Northwestern?? I think duke may be a little overrated? Just my opinion.
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  9. 09-16-15 01:27 PM #9
    teaserpleaser
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    LT do you watch games or do you use some type of model/computer program?
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  10. 09-16-15 02:55 PM #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by teaserpleaser View Post
    LT do you watch games or do you use some type of model/computer program?
    Definite yes to model, but I do watch games a lot too. Probably not as much as others though.
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  11. 09-16-15 03:57 PM #11
    teaserpleaser
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    gotcha good luck this season LT .... You're taking Boston college?
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  12. 09-17-15 08:16 AM #12
    LT Profits
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    Now Up to 12 CFB Plays for Saturday

    THURSDAY, 9/17
    Louisville +6 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Northwestern / Duke UNDER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Navy -4 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Cincinnati / Miami-Ohio UNDER 60 -105 (Heritage)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +3 +100 (Heritage)
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  13. 09-17-15 09:37 AM #13
    wufpakman21
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Clemson overvalued after routing two cupcakes, Louisville undervalued after getting caught in a sandwich game between Auburn and this ACC opener. Looks like classic case of Buy Low, Sell High.
    I think you're overthinking the Clemson game. Just my opinion.Clemson will score plenty of points.
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  14. 09-17-15 09:43 AM #14
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Clemson overvalued after routing two cupcakes, Louisville undervalued after getting caught in a sandwich game between Auburn and this ACC opener. Looks like classic case of Buy Low, Sell High.

    yep, Louisville playing their 3rd game in 13 days. Obviously the Houston game wasn't taken seriously when sandwiched between 2 top 10 teams in less than 14 days
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  15. 09-17-15 09:44 AM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufpakman21 View Post
    I think you're overthinking the Clemson game. Just my opinion.Clemson will score plenty of points.
    No "thinking" necessary, model has Clemson only -3.83. Line is seemingly skewed because of early performances.
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  16. 09-17-15 02:00 PM #16
    Buffalo Nickle
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    How far away from your model number does it have to be to make a play? 3 points?

    How about CBB?
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  17. 09-17-15 02:02 PM #17
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    THURSDAY, 9/17
    Louisville +6 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Northwestern / Duke UNDER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Navy -4 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Cincinnati / Miami-Ohio UNDER 60 -105 (Heritage)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +3 +100 (Heritage)

    think I'm on CSU, Miami-Ohio, and Syracuse as well. Against you on USF though. Maryland can't be as bad as USF on a neutral field
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  18. 09-17-15 02:06 PM #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    How far away from your model number does it have to be to make a play? 3 points?

    How about CBB?
    There is no real answer to that, especially in football with key numbers. MAYBE 1.5 points if line is single-digits, 2.5 if line is double-digits, but that is not a strict rule of thumb for me.
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  19. 09-17-15 02:08 PM #19
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    There is no real answer to that, especially in football with key numbers. MAYBE 1.5 points if line is single-digits, 2.5 if line is double-digits, but that is not a strict rule of thumb for me.
    wow that is sharp. I generally stick with 3 points for a small play. I won't play less than that unless there is some other favorable scenario (injury, time/location of game, etc)
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  20. 09-17-15 02:09 PM #20
    Buffalo Nickle
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    Wow. That's not much cushion. Going as much on personal opinion as the model I take it?
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  21. 09-17-15 02:12 PM #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Wow. That's not much cushion. Going as much on personal opinion as the model I take it?
    Well if a model is THAT far off the real line with much regularity, it is probably worthless anyway. In fact I tend to pass on plays that are TOO far off my model. To each his own I guess.
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  22. 09-17-15 02:13 PM #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Wow. That's not much cushion. Going as much on personal opinion as the model I take it?
    More personal opinion as the year goes on yes, but not much opinion the first 3-4 weeks.
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  23. 09-17-15 02:16 PM #23
    Buffalo Nickle
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    Just wondered how a model guy works. I only use a picture of Cindy Crawford for inspiration when it is a tough decision.
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  24. 09-17-15 02:24 PM #24
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Just wondered how a model guy works. I only use a picture of Cindy Crawford for inspiration when it is a tough decision.
    I am more partial to Brooklyn Decker myself. She is my Free Pass my wife allows me.


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  25. 09-17-15 02:28 PM #25
    Buffalo Nickle
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    I probably need a new model because mine has not been updated. I am going to try this one. I bet it works at least half the time.
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  26. 09-17-15 04:37 PM #26
    Chavs
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I am more partial to Brooklyn Decker myself. She is my Free Pass my wife allows me.



    How many times have you gotten to use that pass, G?
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  27. 09-18-15 08:15 AM #27
    LT Profits
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    Fair Warning: Once I add College totals, the number of CFB plays this week could get into the 20s!

    That happens from time to time, especially earlier in the year before lines tighten up, but it will not be a weekly occurrence.
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  28. 09-18-15 08:45 AM #28
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    Now at 19 CFB Plays Saturday!

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    Wake Forest / Army OVER 48 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Nevada / Texas A&M UNDER 65 -105 (Heritage)
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Northwestern / Duke UNDER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Navy -4 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech / Purdue OVER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Cincinnati / Miami-Ohio UNDER 60 -105 (Heritage)
    Washington -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Charlotte / Middle Tenn. State OVER 64 -105 (Heritage)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +3 +100 (Heritage)
    UTEP / New Mexico State UNDER 61 -105 (Heritage)
    Rutgers / Penn State OVER 46 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 10-12, -2.60
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  29. 09-19-15 08:00 AM #29
    LT Profits
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    22 CFB Plays!

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    Wake Forest / Army OVER 48 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Nevada / Texas A&M UNDER 65 -105 (Heritage)
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Northwestern / Duke UNDER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Navy -4 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech / Purdue OVER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Notre Dame +120 ML (5 Dimes)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Cincinnati / Miami-Ohio UNDER 60 -105 (Heritage)
    Washington -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Charlotte / Middle Tenn. State OVER 64 -105 (Heritage)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +3 +100 (Heritage)
    Texas +6 -105 (Heritage)
    UTEP / New Mexico State UNDER 61 -105 (Heritage)
    Penn State -8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Rutgers / Penn State OVER 46 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 10-12, -2.60
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  30. 09-19-15 09:46 AM #30
    champ21
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    Why u like TexasTexas
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  31. 09-19-15 09:47 AM #31
    LT Profits
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    23rd CFB Play (Money Line)

    SATURDAY, 9/19
    Wake Forest / Army OVER 48 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Nevada / Texas A&M UNDER 65 -105 (Heritage)
    South Florida +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Syracuse -7 -105 (Heritage)
    Duke -3.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Northwestern / Duke UNDER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Troy +34.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Navy -4 -105 (Heritage)
    Auburn +6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech -6 -105 (Heritage)
    Virginia Tech / Purdue OVER 48.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Notre Dame +120 ML (5 Dimes)
    Miami-Ohio +20 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Cincinnati / Miami-Ohio UNDER 60 -105 (Heritage)
    Washington -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Charlotte / Middle Tenn. State OVER 64 -105 (Heritage)
    Texas State -3 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +3 +100 (Heritage)
    Colorado State +135 ML (5 Dimes)
    Texas +6 -105 (Heritage)
    UTEP / New Mexico State UNDER 61 -105 (Heritage)
    Penn State -8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Rutgers / Penn State OVER 46 -105 (Heritage)
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  32. 09-19-15 09:55 AM #32
    The Prick
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    hope u fellas play those bets in my contest, may as well wear cement shoes
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  33. 09-19-15 10:06 AM #33
    dfish
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    Stay in your lane prick
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  34. 09-19-15 10:47 AM #34
    POOLSIDE
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    Curious about something. You mentioned that a card with this many plays tends to happen early in the season, before the lines tighten up. Do you have any idea, data or recollection, how you've done in the past on days with this many plays?

    The reason I ask is that I've become gunshy when I have this many plays I like. I feel like I usually end up just juicing myself down to a small gain/loss.

    Either way, good luck today!
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  35. 09-19-15 12:55 PM #35
    pavyracer
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    23 plays. You have to win 13 just to break even with the juice.

    Why not bet the best 10 and go 10-0?
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