Aren't Parlays a Kind of Lottery?

[ritehook]

lI know this guy who scorns the lottery and laughs at the Powerball players - but who consistently puts in five-team football parlays.

Isn't that a form of lottery? I tell him the bookie hold on that bet is around 30%. Is my math correct?

[Ganchrow]

lI know this guy who scorns the lottery and laughs at the Powerball players - but who consistently puts in five-team football parlays.

Isn't that a form of lottery? I tell him the bookie hold on that bet is around 30%. Is my math correct?

With true parlay odds on a 5-team parlay of bets offered at -110/-110 (payout odds of roughly +2435.9), the theoretical hold would be about 20.75%.

If the parlay paid out at +2200 (which is not at uncommon payout for 5-teamers), hold would jump to about 28.13%.

See my parlay calculator.

[pokernut9999]

Years ago I knew guys that ran parlay cards. They never even checked any cards that had more than 3 teams on them. If someone said they won , then they would go back and look it up. Shows the odds of hitting big parlays.

[RickySteve]

lI know this guy who scorns the lottery and laughs at the Powerball players - but who consistently puts in five-team football parlays.

Isn't that a form of lottery? I tell him the bookie hold on that bet is around 30%. Is my math correct?

30% is a hell of a lot better than the lottery.

[jjgold]

hitting a 2 team parlay is extremely difficult

[ritehook]

The guy plays just across the US border, in Mexico. (They book American sports)

I think he told me that a 5 team parlay there pays 20-1. If the true odds are 31-1 (or so I understand), wouldn't that put the hold at around 34 or 35%?

Not as bad as the state lotteries that hold back 50% or a bit more, but not too good. They can make a lot of noise when they hit, but that won't be too often. Just like the lottery players

[Ganchrow]

I think he told me that a 5 team parlay there pays 20-1. If the true odds are 31-1 (or so I understand), wouldn't that put the hold at around 34 or 35%?

hold = 1 - decimal odds paid × win probability
hold = 1 - 21 × .5⁵ = 34.375%

By contrast, the house edge on pick-9 Keno at the Bellagio is "only" about 28.13%.

[Dark Horse]

hitting a 2 team parlay is extremely difficult

about as hard as winning two bets in a row?

[ritehook]

hold = 1 - decimal odds paid × win probability
hold = 1 - 21 × .5⁵ = 34.375%

By contrast, the house edge on pick-9 Keno at the Bellagio is "only" about 28.13%.

I'll tell him about the better odds on Keno at the Bellagio!

I figure true parlay odds a bit differently. But I can see that your formula is faster. But can I do it on the computer? I know that the superior 5 is on the I key, but hate to confess it but don't know how to punch that in

[isetcap]

It is not possible to win in the long run by betting parlays or unders in football totals.

[Ganchrow]

I'll tell him about the better odds on Keno at the Bellagio!

I figure true parlay odds a bit differently. But I can see that your formula is faster. But can I do it on the computer? I know that the superior 5 is on the I key, but hate to confess it but don't know how to punch that in

In Excel try:

=1-21*.5^5